bluewave Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Even with the +5 January departure through the 23rd in NYC, the 50° high temperatures have been limited. The warmest temperature of the month so far in NYC has only been 51°. This is very low for such a warm departure pattern. All our other + 5 similar periods in January since 2000 have had more 50s and a warmer monthly max. This is a result of the very odd south based blocking pattern limiting the high temperatures. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 23 Max Temp and 50° days 1 2007-01-23 40.8 72°...11 2 2006-01-23 40.7 63°.....6 3 2020-01-23 39.0 69°.....5 4 2017-01-23 37.8 66°.....4 5 2008-01-23 37.7 64°.....6 6 2021-01-23 37.4 51°.....1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Polar Vortex pays us a visit Not that bee can control it but I could do without this. Nothing worse then frigid air on bare ground 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: We could be in business if the MJO actually makes it all the way to Phase 8 during the 2nd week of February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 I will never start another monthly thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 42 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @AllsnowNow it’s the 2nd week of February for the epic pattern lol Just keep moving the goal posts, eventually you’ll be right by default 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @AllsnowNow it’s the 2nd week of February for the epic pattern lol Just keep moving the goal posts, eventually you’ll be right by default Many people busted on this month but they said said a better pattern will be developing by the 20th with blocking and storms and here we are, tracking 3 upcoming waves with blocking . The PNA is kicking our ass right now but there are signs that the ridge will be back in the west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 40 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @AllsnowNow it’s the 2nd week of February for the epic pattern lol Just keep moving the goal posts, eventually you’ll be right by default Never called for a epic pattern. Our chances have increased after the 20th. The cold is here and next weekend we will be in the freezer. Throw some more cfs maps out and perhaps the Niña pattern will come next year 3 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 @snowman19 thanks for letting me stay in your head rent free 3 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Tomorrow will be dry and continued cold. On Tuesday into Tuesday night, a weakening system will come eastward bringing a swath of 1"-3" snowfall in an area running from Philadelphia to New York City and north and west of those areas. Areas just to the east of New York City could see little accumulation. A few days later during January 28-29, another storm will impact parts of the East Coast. That storm will likely exit off the Southeast coast bringing accumulating snow to parts of the Southeast and lower Middle Atlantic region. The heaviest snows could be focused on the Richmond to Washington, DC areas and eastward. That area could pick up light or moderate snowfall. As the storm rapidly intensifies offshore, it could still bring a period of heavy wind-swept snow to parts of eastern Virginia, Maryland's Eastern Shore, and extreme southeastern New Jersey. AO-/PNA- patterns typically do not produce significant or major snowstorms for the Middle Atlantic or southern New England regions in late January or early February. During the January 20-February 7, 1950-2020 period, there have been 5 storms that brought 4" or more snow to at least two of the following cities--Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia--during an AO-/PNA- pattern. None of those storms brought 6" or more snow to two or more of those cities. Therefore, until the potential events are within 72 hours or less and the guidance suggests otherwise, the base case is against a widespread significant or major snowfall. Overall, the final week of January will feature generally below normal readings. Milder temperatures will likely return during the first week of February. Some of the guidance suggests that a period of much warmer than normal temperatures could develop for a time. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around January 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +5.66 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.462. On January 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.765 (RMM). The January 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.489. Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The cooling will likely accelerate during the second half of January. As is typical for vortex-splitting events, the major piece of the polar vortex migrated to Eurasia. The end result has been an absence of severe cold in much of North America. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.3°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Never called for a epic pattern. Our chances have increased after the 20th. The cold is here and next weekend we will be in the freezer. Throw some more cfs maps out and perhaps the Niña pattern will come next year He cant right now. He's too busy talking about supression of the 26-27th wave as the models come further north. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 52 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: He cant right now. He's too busy talking about supression of the 26-27th wave as the models come further north. His Tuesday call of supression looks great. Only 2-4 for sne 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 JUST TRASH? 50' OF SNOW !!!!!!! AND YOU SHOULD SEE THE BRUTALIZING CONTROL T's THAT GO WITH THIS. HIGHS UNDER 20 UP THE WHAZOO FOR A MONTH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Last top 30 coldest Central Park winter... 1993 - 1994 Last top 30 coldest Central Park autumn... 1976 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and somewhat warmer than yesterday. Clouds will increase as the day progresses. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 36° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 39° Tomorrow and tomorrow night, a weakening system will bring a light snowfall to parts of the region. An area running from Philadelphia to New York City remains in line for 1”-3” snow. Lesser amounts are likely to the east. A second larger storm will pass too far to the south and east to do more than graze much of the region. It increasingly appears that this storm will intensify too far off shore to bring a significant snowfall to the Middle Atlantic region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The last 6 days of January are averaging 30degs.,(25/34). Making it 25degs., or -7.0. Month to date is 37.0[+4.6]. January should end between 34.2 and 35.4. Little to no snow (under 2", all models)for remainder of month is now likely. First week of February visits Mt. Olympus at 60+, but could have some snow anyway. 850mb. T goes from -20C to +10C in a few days. Actually the first half of February looks like a Hell Hole now. PV doing the Tighten Up? My "TEN DAY WINTER" forecast will be right, else this J,F,M does a better impersonation of last year than anyone thought. 25*(51%RH) here at 6am. 38* by 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said: Going now to walk out on the lake to see how the ice fisherman are doing. I wanted to go today but it was just to windy and cold. My kids out there playing hockey also. So maybe I'll watch them a bit till I get to cold. Good there...not quite so safe down here near Culvers Lake. Enjoy. This period between 1/23-2/2 is the way its supposed to be here in winter, in our entire forum. Climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Pretty decent sub20F for NYC looks like Fri-Sat mornings in NYC... and so one shot of the coldest looks pretty certain now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The extreme south based blocking pattern with the +EPO has produced a real temperature oddity for NYC this month. Even with the current average temperature around 37°, this was the 4th lowest January monthly maximum temperature in NYC since 1980 at only 51°. The current forecast has this high holding for the rest of the month. Even when the coming Arctic air lowers this average temperature, it will still be way above the other years since 1980 with such a low monthly high temperature. So you can brag that we finally beat a cold record from Jan 94. New York City... Central Park, NY Ptcldy Snow Flrrys Ptcldy Sunny Sunny Mocldy /38 30/34 33/39 30/34 22/29 15/32 25/38 /00 20/80 70/40 20/20 00/00 00/00 20/30 Lowest January high temperatures in NYC since 1980 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Avg Temperature 1 2009 47 27.9 2 1981 49 26.2 3 2003 50 27.5 4 2021 51 37.0 5 2011 53 29.7 - 1988 53 29.5 6 2001 54 33.6 7 1994 55 25.5 - 1991 55 34.9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The idea of a possible snow event during the February 1-2 period has some merit. First, there is a clustering of ensemble members around that timeframe. Second, that timeframe will coincide with a rise in the PNA to briefly positive levels allowing for a temporarily more favorable pattern. Having said that, it's too soon to lock in such an event, even as the probability is higher than climatology. It's also too soon to speculate as to potential impacts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: The idea of a possible snow event during the February 1-2 period has some merit. First, there is a clustering of ensemble members around that timeframe. Second, that timeframe will coincide with a rise in the PNA to briefly positive levels allowing for a temporarily more favorable pattern. Having said that, it's too soon to lock in such an event, even as the probability is higher than climatology. It's also too soon to speculate as to potential impacts. when do you suspect this potential will become thread worthy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: when do you suspect this potential will become thread worthy ? Probably midweek if the guidance remains as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 snowfall for la nina winters up to Jan. 31st... 2010-11.....56.1"... 1995-96.....40.5"... 2000-01.....21.7"... 2017-18.....18.9"... 1964-65.....17.9"... 2008-09.....15.0"... 1984-85.....13.9"... 1970-71.....13.8"... 1967-68.....12.3"... 2005-06.....11.7"... 1973-74.....10.6"... 2020-21.....10.5" so far... 1966-67.....10.5"... 1962-63.......9.8"... 1999-00.......9.5"... 1975-76.......7.9"... 2011-12.......7.2"... 1998-99.......6.5"... 1988-89.......5.3"... 1996-97.......4.5"... 1985-86.......3.1"... 2007-08.......2.9"... 1971-72.......2.8"... 1974-75.......2.2"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ukie is also further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12ZGFSv16 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12Z GFSv16 has next early weeks event getting blocked trying to redevelop and move northeast and retrogrades back towards the coast and stalls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFSv16 has next early weeks event getting blocked trying to redevelop and move northeast and stalled out Just maybe we will have a chance with the NAO and PNA rising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Euro running 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12Z EURO - a long duration event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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