MJO812 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 CMC, GEFS and GFS was so close to a huge snowstorm next Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 59 minutes ago, MJO812 said: CMC, GEFS and GFS was so close to a huge snowstorm next Friday Talk about the 2nd storm in here please until Walt does his thing. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The gefs look sick for storm 2 fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The gefs look sick dor storm 2 fwiw. Hi - by sick do you mean ugly or big signal for a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 30 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Hi - by sick do you mean ugly or big signal for a storm? Nice signal but it's just one run right now. Some of the members are awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @mattinpa These northern members are really nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Rjay said: @mattinpa These northern members are really nice Thanks very much for posting. Hope it turns out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Thanks very much for posting. Hope it turns out! Would be quite the surprise if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The Euro took a step towards the GFS/CMC but it still misses by quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 A quick note: Have seen some f the modeling for a big storm VA's/Delmarva se NJ/e LI. No topic-thread from me yet, until at least 4P today pending review of multiple 12z/23 ensembles and WPC outlook. This is the overnight outlook for the 28th into early 29th... we're on the fringe of the outlook, which looks reasonable to me in light of all the other guidance so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(27/34). Making it 26degs., or -6.0. No comment on snow till a given model can be produce two consecutive/coherent outputs that are the same and models agree with each other. Use meso limit of 84 hrs. and 48hrs., it's peak performance range. Best>>>>>>>Tune in Wed. AM. 29* (40%RH) here at 6am. [37* at Midnite] 28* at 8am. 29* at 9am. 31*/32* Noon to 2pm. 25* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 hours ago, jm1220 said: You think that's bad? Syracuse is at 29" of snow for the season, normally by now they have 67". They're getting maybe 6" of lake effect tonight though but they're in a deep hole. Binghamton an hour drive or so south of them is at 60" because of the crazy snow band from the 12/17 storm. Yeah, record south based blocking and warmth will do that. Pretty impressive how the blocking has gotten stuck east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes since the summer. Those record warm SSTs east of the Maritimes and New England have been pretty extreme. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, record south based blocking and warmth will do that. Pretty impressive how the blocking has gotten stuck east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes since the summer. Those record warm SSTs east of the Maritimes and New England have been pretty extreme. The new outlook from the CPC going with a warm start to February. Also, North American snowcover is the lowest it’s ever been in over 15 years..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 33° Newark: 34° Philadelphia: 35° Tomorrow will be fair and continued cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro took a step towards the GFS/CMC but it still misses by quite a bit EPS continues to not be enthused. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Until the Euro and EPS comes on board, the end of the week storm that the GFS and GEFS shows is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I hate to say it but the south based NAO is what did us in. We had a positive PNA first half of Jan and the NAO killed our chances. Then we had a negative EPO with cold air and instead of overrunning events the south based NAO is shredding the events. We need the NAO to move North. Will be interesting to see if the MA ends up with more snow than us. The polar vortex is taking another hit. This is bad as it will reinforce the negative NAO. What I do not understand is why it's stuck in a south based location. I may end up with less snow than last year!!!! Would be the first back to back ratter for as long as I have been tracking weather. March is always a wildcard so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I hate to say it but the south based NAO is what did us in. We had a positive PNA first half of Jan and the NAO killed our chances. Then we had a negative EPO with cold air and instead of overrunning events the south based NAO is shredding the events. We need the NAO to move North. Will be interesting to see if the MA ends up with more snow than us. The polar vortex is taking another hit. This is bad as it will reinforce the negative NAO. What I do not understand is why it's stuck in a south based location. I may end up with less snow than last year!!!! Would be the first back to back ratter for as long as I have been tracking weather. March is always a wildcard so we shall see. The exceptionally warm SSTs may have played a role in influencing the position of the block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The exceptionally warm SSTs may have played a role in influencing the position of the block. Thanks Don. If global warming is to blame (not saying it is but IF), it's amazing how all global warming effects are working against us. Hadley Cell Indian ocean temps Atlantic SSTs Extreme Jet (not sure if Hadley Cell is causing this) Pretty remarkable nothing so far has helped us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I take the below as a HUGE positive. We need a reshuffle. Would like to note that AO stays negative and PNA rises to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, bluewave said: There is something that may work. We get back to a cutter pattern in early February. While it’s milder for us, it would keep the chance of wave breaks and the south based block going. If we could hold the -AO into late February or March, then perhaps the wavelength changes could work out for us. But at this point, this remains a big IF. I think the snowstorm of Jan 2012 is a great example if I am not mistaken. In a sea of warmth we got a moderate to heavy snow even from a "trailing wave" which followed a cutter I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don. If global warming is to blame (not saying it is but IF), it's amazing how all global warming effects are working against us. Hadley Cell Indian ocean temps Atlantic SSTs Extreme Jet (not sure if Hadley Cell is causing this) Pretty remarkable nothing so far has helped us It’s definitely having an impact. At the regional scale, not all of its impacts are evident. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Question. Do the EPS tellies have a rising NAO as well? Perhaps the reason the GFS gets the late week storm closer to us is due to the fact that it has a rising NAO. I am assuming the EPS keeps the NAO negative hence keeping the storm south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Have to feel good for the MA. I believe the last time they had more snow than our region was 2009 2010. The below is for the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This would be an epic pattern if there wasn't alot of blocking. Be careful what you wish for with a negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gfs will likely be further south this run. TPV further south, lower heights on the EC, s/w less amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The amplified MJO 6-7 into early February will be mild with continued ridging over the Northeast. But it’s possible that this could offer some improvements later on. We will have to wait see. I’m not sold the amplitude is enough to matter. Also the GEPS and GEFS the last few runs are trying to show more of western ridge/eastern trof pattern after 2/4, the GEPS more so and both have shown the block moving a bit more northeast too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 25 minutes ago, Rjay said: So close and yet so far, we usually know how there things end which is painful on the northern edge but might be congrats up to NJ Coast/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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