January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But they have all been consistent indicating that it will take a perfect thread the needle to get a significant snow near the coast.

and the 12Z GFS threaded the needle perfectly

[HeadInTheClouds]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But they have all been consistent indicating that it will take a perfect thread the needle to get a significant snow near the coast.

yes, but they are flip-flopping between cutting primary into blocking and then next model run has low sliding south and our area being much colder. It is a thread the needle event but completely different set-ups. 

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Nino region 4 in a free fall, now -1.2C. When was the last time it’s been this cold? I honestly can’t remember seeing SSTs that cold in region 4. Over the last decade, it’s consistently been the warmest ENSO region

This week’s -1.3C figure of Region 4 was the coldest since the week centered around January 25, 2012 when the anomaly was also -1.3C.

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Gfs is a big hit. I’ll trust models before I trust anyone’s baseless opinion here. Hopefully next weeks system will produce we need it badly

ok then to be fair why not trust the 12Z CMC - a complete miss to the south ?

[NEG NAO]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a 192hr GFS solution with a +EPO and -PNA. Just a little more amped and all the warmth to the south ends up in our area. Goes to show how much a challenge this one will be to get just right.

 

yes to try to get it right 200 hours in advance is a great challenge BUT as we close in on it it will get less and less challenging IMO - we have been through this many  times since these forums started a long time ago

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS - just for fun --- and then the not so fun CMC

[HeadInTheClouds]

23 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Gfs is a big hit. I’ll trust models before I trust anyone’s baseless opinion here. Hopefully next weeks system will produce we need it badly

Good luck with that. Trusting one run of the GooFuS more than a week out is probably not advisable. 

[RedSky]

Para GFS is north and mild nothing is getting nailed down for days

 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Para GFS is north and mild nothing is getting nailed down for days

 

yes different then both GFS and CMC with the temps especially

[CIK62]

12Z GFS makes an apology.        Nosedives by 30 degrees and also goes nutty with the snow, not shown.          Mental Illness will do that:

The GFS sings.......PEOPLE DON'T YOU WORRY----I KNOW WHAT I'M DOIN'------I KNOW WHAT COLD'S ALL ABOUT----Ah! THIS little  VORTEX WON'T MAKE A FOOL OUT OF ME-----CAUSE I'M GONNA STRAIGHTENED IT OUT!!!!!!

 

[donsutherland1]

The 12z GFS notwithstanding, a 6” or greater snowfall in the forecast pattern is not very likely. Until one is within 48-72 hours and there is much greater model consensus, the base case remains a lighter accumulation scenario. 

[Dark Star]

A few short lived flurries here in Garwood, NJ (central Union County).

[wdrag]

No thread from me this afternoon on anything here 1/25-26 etc. Solutions too variable and there seemed to be a large southward displacement since the 00z cycle. Have no idea if that will hold firm. Will rereview in the morning.  

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No thread from me this afternoon on anything here 1/25-26 etc. Solutions too variable and there seemed to be a large southward displacement since the 00z cycle. Have no idea if that will hold firm. Will rereview in the morning.  

Good idea  - FWIW the 12Z EURO has an initial wave for Monday and then another to follow

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Good idea  - FWIW the 12Z EURO has an initial wave for Monday and then another to follow

And another wave after the 2nd one

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is our 3rd year in a row with long stretches between measurable snowfall. 

NYC

11-15-18...........6.4”......1-18-19....0.5

1-18-20..............2.1........no measurable snowfall the rest of the season

12-17-20...........10.5......no measurable snowfall through 1-18-21

 

I'm beginning to think we need another 82-83/97-98/15-16 Nino to change this 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

And another wave after the 2nd one

problem is that 2nd wave gets shoved south by the block - at least the models have reintroduced the idea of significant blocking and a stronger HP in southern Canada

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

problem is that 2nd wave gets shoved south by the block - at least the models have reintroduced the idea of significant blocking and a stronger HP in southern Canada

Eps looks nice this far out 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Eps looks nice this far out 

I think some snow may occur the next 10-14 days but the odds of something big are low.  If it happens it'll be some type of February 94ish event probably.  I don't think in this pattern we are going to get a classic KU or even a big coastal.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think some snow may occur the next 10-14 days but the odds of something big are low.  If it happens it'll be some type of February 94ish event probably.  I don't think in this pattern we are going to get a classic KU or even a big coastal.

With the blocking, I can see a slow moving swfe or Miller b. 

[MJO812]

Eps has a few storms

[Snowshack]

45f with some flurries in Hauppauge.  45!

[NEG NAO]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps has a few storms

The EPS and GFS both showing around 10 inches in the same location - interesting............

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Good idea  - FWIW the 12Z EURO has an initial wave for Monday and then another to follow

I had to run some errands... , so rather than have anyone wonder, I just delayed til tomorrow.  After review of the 12z/18 NAEFS (available ~230P/A) we continue on target as outlined this morning around 6A... advisory snow/ice with most of this on the 26th but as you say, not only a piece possible on the 25th, it could wait til late 26/27.  Think this can wait til 6A ish/19 and get off the fence and topic at that time. That will still be 6-8 days in advance, so the uncertainties are likely to persist-will run it broad but give us the probable blended outcome.  NAEFS continues colder thicknesses and BL temps along I95 so not too bad, despite the differing model solutions. From my view, IF we do get 0.4" frozen qpf up here...where sleet doesn't occur, there might be some larger snow water ratios of 12-13 to 1 instead of our typical 10-7 to 1 along the coast?  Will havre to check some guidance on that. I like the LF quad of 2H jet. 

[bluewave]

Record low snow extent for North America on January 17th for the last 16 years.

 

[MJO812]

From Orh in SNE

Weeklies went wild with the -AO/NAO well into February. If that is correct, we’re either in for more torture or a lot of fun. Can’t punt with that look. (Well I guess you can but it’s like punting on 4th and 2 at your opponent 40 down by 7 with 4 min to go)

 

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

From Orh in SNE

Weeklies went wild with the -AO/NAO well into February. If that is correct, we’re either in for more torture or a lot of fun. Can’t punt with that look. (Well I guess you can but it’s like punting on 4th and 2 at your opponent 40 down by 7 with 4 min to go)

 

That's interesting. But personally I think, as hobbyists, we would be better off if weeklies did not exist. 

Year after year they prove to be as misleading as they are predictive.

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower and middle 40s across the region today. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler.

Meanwhile, parts of California experienced record warmth. High temperatures included:

Oakland: 83° (old record: 67°, 2014) ***new January record***
Sacramento: 74° (old record: 69°, 2014)
San Francisco: 74° (old record: 68°, 1948) ***tied January record***
Stockton: 78° (old record: 69°, 2009) ***new January record***

Oakland's previous earliest 80° temperature on record occurred on February 6, 2011 when the temperature reached 81°. That was Oakland's only 80° temperature on record in February. The previous earliest date on record for an 83° or above temperature was March 10, 2004 when the mercury reached 86°. Records at Oakland go back to 1948.

During the second half of January, there will be some potential for snow events in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, even as the forecast AO-/PNA- pattern is typically not a very snowy one. There continues to be ensemble support for some light snow or flurries in parts of the region during the January 21-23 timeframe during the passage of a strong cold front. Another timeframe highlighted by the ensembles is January 25-28. The latter period may have greater potential. However, neither period is likely to produce a significant snowfall (6" or above) for the Washington, DC to Boston corridor.

AO-/PNA- patterns are typically not snowy. The frequency of measurable snowfall is just over 90% of climatology in Boston and Philadelphia and around 80% of climatology in New York City for the January 21-31, 1950-2020 period. The frequency of 2" or more daily snowfall was just above 90% of climatology for Philadelphia, but fell sharply to 50% of climatology in New York City and 65% of climatology in Boston. For daily snowfall amounts in excess of 2", the frequency fell sharply for Philadelphia. As a result, such patterns typically have produced significant snowstorms (6" or above snowfall) in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during late January. The biggest snowfalls during an AO-/PNA- pattern during the January 20-31, 1950-2020 period were as follows: Boston: 7.3", January 21, 2011; New York City: 4.2", January 21, 2011; and, Philadelphia: 3.0", January 20, 2000.

Afterward, the evolution of the AO will determine whether potential for measurable snow events will continue into February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around January 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +22.66 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.507.

On January 17 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.001 (RMM). The January 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.145.

Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The cooling will likely accelerate during the second half of January. As is typical for vortex-splitting events, the major piece of the polar vortex migrated to Eurasia. The end result has been an absence of severe cold in much of North America.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.2°.

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

From Orh in SNE

Weeklies went wild with the -AO/NAO well into February. If that is correct, we’re either in for more torture or a lot of fun. Can’t punt with that look. (Well I guess you can but it’s like punting on 4th and 2 at your opponent 40 down by 7 with 4 min to go)

 

New England could have some opportunities. The problem for the New York City area is the positioning of the block. It’s too far south (just as has been the case for much of this month). Of course, beyond two weeks the weeklies are little better than climatology. 

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFS north again for next weeks event - no real redevelopment before it encounters any blocking