January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[coastalplainsnowman]

23 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Cannot discount March either.  
 

We could have a rough March

The problem is that once we get into March I think all but the biggest snow fans are ready to move on.  The earlier in the season the snow, the better.  Our Dec 17th one this season for example - I'll trade 5 straight seasons of a 6" spring snowstorm for one of those (even if it was barely 6" for me) 

The March  / April (I guess now we have to say May too?) snow is a mess and melting as soon as the sun peaks out at the end.  

[NEG NAO]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

TPV shreds and squashes every storm on the 12z runs.  We are left with  a cold and dry pattern with snow showers.

How long do you actually believe the cold and dry pattern will last with next to nothing in precip ?

[Dan76]

Until the cutters start .

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No cold air ? What

When was the last the time park failed to hit freezing for a high temp?

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

define "US" please

He literally @'ed the guy 

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

When was the last the time park failed to hit freezing for a high temp?

in december 2020

[Rjay]

Just now, nycwinter said:

in december 2020

The day of the snow storm?

[nycwinter]

i'm sure we had a few days where the temp did not hit freezing in december

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

When was the last the time park failed to hit freezing for a high temp?

a better question would be IMO - When was the last time the park failed to hit freezing for a high temp in a January ?

[Brian5671]

The GFS is not overly cold air-most of the truly arctic air is along the Canadian border with some intrusion into our area from time to time but nothing really out of the ordinary really.

[IrishRob17]

29 minutes ago, Rjay said:

He literally @'ed the guy 

Not to mention the map.................

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The GFS is not overly cold air-most of the truly arctic air is along the Canadian border with some intrusion into our area from time to time but nothing really out of the ordinary really.

The epo takes over as we get later in the run 

 This is why the storms are suppressed.

Ready for cold and dry ? Uggh 

[Rjay]

26 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i'm sure we had a few days where the temp did not hit freezing in december

I think we had 4 unless idk what I'm looking at

 

 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The definition of luck these days is getting the Pacific to cooperate. Notice how the -PNA amps  of the Pacific Jet as it crosses the country around the 22nd. This 200KT Jet max allows the primary low to scoot by to our north. The secondary gets going further to the east as it squeezes under the 50/50.
 

 

 

Yet another round of total nothing burger runs on all global models through 1/25 for the metro area. Literally less than 2 inches of snow, total, over the next 10 days even using the 10:1 ratio snow maps

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said:

Dont worry it's only January 15th lol. The pattern is still 10 days away  

It's always 10 days away.

[NEG NAO]

12Z EURO offers some hope for next week

[Brian5671]

you know it's bad when a weak low north of Lake Superior is considering something hopeful.   

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

you know it's bad when a weak low north of Lake Superior is considering something hopeful.   

better then nothing and you don't know if it could possibly end up wetter then progged - still early - I still don't totally buy into this long term dry cold scenerio advertised by some models.........

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

better then nothing and you don't know if it could possibly end up wetter then progged - still early - I still don't totally buy into this long term dry cold scenerio advertised by some models.........

it'll end at some point.  It's weird to get dry and warm this time of year....next week is colder but you'd think with most of the days being dry it would be some cold/dry scenario

[JustinRP37]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

We have seen snow until April.

I know we have and I hate it. It is worthless snow after March 15th, just melts fast and makes you think of shoulda, coulda, woulda. And if we get a big one after then I am even more angry because we could have had it when we could actually use it. I don't know what to tell you, I love snow storms, but the whole point of snow to me is to ski, play with my son, or just hike in the snow. Sure tracking is fun, but what's the point if you don't actually enjoy snow? If it snows over night and melts the next morning, did it even snow? I get many will disagree with that, but it's how I feel. I'd much rather have weekly 2-4 inches with minimal melting than one massive storm that melts in 2-5 days. Although I do enjoy a rare massive storm. 

[MJO812]

Eps has a more favorable pattern than the euro op

[MJO812]

 

[wdrag]

Hi everyone,  Think I'll start a topic to track some stuff.  Lots of debate on what will happen, or not,. So we might as well organize it and keep the 25-26th and beyond out of this topic.  It's probably minimal impact events, if any. 

First measurable snowfall (near climo) POSSIBLE between Tue night and Friday morrning.  Two opportunities and both could be suppressed/dried out in northerly flow.  Also could be too warm to stick in NYC if snow were to occur, and especially if it occurs during the daylight hours.

I do think we'll see a little bit of measurable snow in parts of the forum from the esewd moving  shortwave early Wednesday and/or from the east or esewd moving short wave for Thursday afternoon-eve.  Climo snowfall in NYC CP is 0.2-0.3; POU is 0.4.-0.5".  Short events. As of this 1/15 post,  probably just 2 to 6 hours.

I would hope we can muster half an inch between these two short wave passages in part of our NYC forum. (north and northwest fringe high terrain our our forum may do that tomorrow into Sunday with an inch or 2).  

For NYC this would be the first measurable since Dec 17. Other parts of our area had measurable around Jan 3. 

I'll be glad to adjust this topic with any interesting information that is added from our members and of course if the models  somehow improve our chances which right now, per 12z/15 (Friday) NWS MOS and WPC extended, are less than 50%. 

[MJO812]

I want a Jan 2016 repeat

[lee59]

Getting very windy here, gusting to 32mph out of the east.

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Getting very windy here, gusting to 32mph out of the east.

yep winds have been picking up here since about 1pm or so....temps in the low 40's.  Models look to give LI and CT up to 2 inches of rain

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep winds have been picking up here since about 1pm or so....temps in the low 40's.  Models look to give LI and CT up to 2 inches of rain

Finally some heavy precip even if it’s rain. There could be a nice stripe of heavy rain that trains for a bit over central Suffolk County into CT where there could be 2-3”. 

[stemwinder]

A healthy peal of thunder a few minutes ago.  Radar shows lots of convection moving N through Central NJ.  

[donsutherland1]

Readings across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions were much above normal during the first 15 days of January. At New York City, the mean temperature was 37.4° (4.7° above normal).

A storm will bring showers and periods of rain tonight into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.00" is likely across the region. Parts of Long Island and New England could see 1.00"-1.50" rain. This system could mark the beginning of a more active weather pattern.

During the second half of January, there will be some potential for snow events in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. There has been persistent ensemble support during the January 21-23 timeframe for at least some snowfall in the region. Another timeframe highlighted by the ensembles is January 26-28. The latter period may have greater potential. Nevertheless, neither event is a certainty at this point in time. Afterward, the evolution of the AO will determine whether such potential continues into February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +22.38 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.824.

On January 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.216 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.232.

Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The cooling will likely accelerate during the second half of January. The mean zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. They have all but died at 30 mb and might still reverse for a brief period. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will split with the dominant piece will, as is typical for vortex-splitting events, migrate to Eurasia.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. Blocking appears likely to continue into at least the last week of January.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.3°.

 

 

[CIK62]

Latest GEFS Extended Control Member has gone from 30" to 5" of snow.       The T's may turn out to be the big story.          I think we will go sub-zero somewhere between Jan. 25 and Feb. 10,  with or without the snow.         Long string of 32 degree or lower high T's possible.