January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s in much of the region. A few locations could top out in the lower 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 48°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 50°

A storm could bring some rain or showers to the region late Friday or Saturday.

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s in much of the region. A few locations could top out in the lower 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 48°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 50°

A storm could bring some rain or showers to the region late Friday or Saturday.

All the overnight 0Z model runs were weak sauce, nothing burgers through Day 10 (240 hours). GFS, Para-GFS, CMC, Euro, all less than 3 inches of snow total for the metro area even using the liberal 10:1 ratio snow maps. ICON offered nothing at all through the end of its run (180 hours) 

[Allsnow]

Here comes the -epo inside 7 days now @snowman19

[snowman19]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Here comes the -epo inside 7 days now @snowman19

God speed

[HeadInTheClouds]

32 with light snow, coating. 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

God speed

Finally =)

Now let's get precip 

[crossbowftw3]

Could sneak in an inch or two up here in Sullivan on Saturday. Not overly counting on it but it’d be nice before the lake response kicks up. 

[crossbowftw3]

Pretty interesting map. Seems a bit overcooked but elevations can probably cash in 3-5” before the LE train begins.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

God speed

Haha

[bluewave]

First time since 1875 that NYC only had a T of snow through mid-January following 10+ in mid-December.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 10 to Dec 20	Dec 21 Jan 14
1	1948-12-20	21.1	5.7
2	1960-12-20	16.6	2.0
3	1916-12-20	13.8	0.7
4	1904-12-20	13.3	10.7
5	1945-12-20	12.1	3.5
6	2009-12-20	10.9	2.3
7	2020-12-20	10.5	T
8	1917-12-20	10.1	2.0
-	1874-12-20	10.1	T

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First time since 1875 that NYC only had a T of snow through mid-January following 10+ in mid-December.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 10 to Dec 20	Dec 21 Jan 14
1	1948-12-20	21.1	5.7
2	1960-12-20	16.6	2.0
3	1916-12-20	13.8	0.7
4	1904-12-20	13.3	10.7
5	1945-12-20	12.1	3.5
6	2009-12-20	10.9	2.3
7	2020-12-20	10.5	T
8	1917-12-20	10.1	2.0
-	1874-12-20	10.1	T

We have ripping fast flow in the northern branch polar jet (typical La Niña). Everything is getting suppressed well south and put through the meat grinder with the fast flow in between the strong 50/50 vortex, which is trapped underneath the NAO block, and the SE Ridge trying to poke up. The shortwaves can’t amp

[MJO812]

Para, GFS and CMC are really cold in the long range

The power of the epo ridge 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Para, GFS and CMC are really cold in the long range

The power of the epo ridge 

you are talking close to 275 hours away - IMO ignore for now....... Any event prior to then has the same old borderline cold airmass in place for any precip that does arrive - nothing happening on the 12Z runs so far that is thread worthy..........

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Para, GFS and CMC are really cold in the long range

The power of the epo ridge 

OP models are not worth much past 5-6 days....surely you know that by now?

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

OP models are not worth much past 5-6 days....surely you know that by now?

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Bamwx is awful

They ban people who disagree with them

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

OP models are not worth much past 5-6 days....surely you know that by now?

Dude you can't deny what Allsnow and others have saying. The epo is finally going negative for the first time in a long time.

Now we have to hope for snow

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dude you can't deny what Allsnow and others have saying. The epo is finally going negative for the first time in a long time.

Now we have to hope for snow

[NEG NAO]

12Z EURO offers some hope for a light to possibly moderate event around the Metro late next week - this is the model to monitor it has shown this or something similar recently and fits the advertised pattern coming up

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z EURO offers some hope for a light to possibly moderate event around the Metro late next week - this is the model to monitor it has shown this or something similar recently and fits the advertised pattern coming up

Then it warms up  with the primary low getting so far north. Weenie land but a storm signal.

[Brian5671]

that's a cutter on the euro-mostly rain after some initial snow

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's a cutter on the euro-mostly rain after some initial snow

Yep

Luckily it's 200 hours out but finally a storm to track. It has been so boring.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

that's a cutter on the euro-mostly rain after some initial snow

its a light to moderate event 3 - 4 inches and probably turns to sleet and drizzle before ending

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's a cutter on the euro-mostly rain after some initial snow

its not mostly rain on that euro run FYI

[HeadInTheClouds]

All globals show what could be a moderate wintry event for the 22nd. It's still a week away so things can change but it's the best shot that we have had in a couple of weeks and even longer for some locales. 

[CIK62]

12Z Summary:

GFS                                  9" Snow       1.8" Rain        Coldest Day     12/24   28th.

EURO (10 days)             4" Snow       1.6" Rain                                   24/29   24th.

CMC (10 days)              6" Snow       1.6"Rain                                    20/25   24th.

Coldest T's may center on Iowa as PV presses.       Multiple sub-zero days and even sub-zero highs out there.          Last Thurs it indicated the teens would hit us by next Thurs.       So a week went by now and it is still one week away.      That's Express Mail for you.        Meanwhile  it is 51* here at 2:30pm.

[wdrag]

No topics yet: Per prior discussion and 12z/14 modeling... it is worthy to note that even though the op GGEM is decent on qpf, it's ensembles are not.  The result... NAEFS can't muster much qpf here... probably 0.2 or less... and note that 1000-500 thickness and BL temps are marginal I80-LI south.  IF the NAEFS can crank this up on qpf a bit more and the EPS holds it's own, then I can gain confidence on a light to mdt wintry event along or just n of I80 up to I84.  Was quite surprised to see how low the 12z/14 NAEFS qpf was and so that's my only hold up.  I do know it's something to track and am pretty sure we'll see wintry weather in part of the forum but suppression or a warmer BL scenario can occur that could limit the extent of snow/ice in our forum.  Myself, waiting til I recheck tomorrow morning.  

 

FWIW: NAEFS looks a bit better for the 25th.colder and somewhat more extensive 0.2" (5mm) into our area at least 5MM more qpf than the 21st-22nd...  that's also not that much and can change. 

At least there is some slowly increasing support for something around the 21st-22nd.

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

 

That's the NAEFS link.  Change the forecast cycle to 12z and leaf through the various available 24 hour parameters that verify at 00z. 

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its not mostly rain on that euro run FYI

Nice front end thump 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice front end thump 

that would work....something to track at least instead of 40 degrees and cloudy or partly cloudy every day

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that would work....something to track at least instead of 40 degrees and cloudy or partly cloudy every day

EPS is a New England snow event for that one. Has less snow for us than the operational, has a stronger primary parent low cutting into the Great Lakes