bluewave Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Warmest start to January on record for Bismarck, ND at +18.5. Time Series Summary for Bismarck Area, ND (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2021-01-12 30.8 0 2 2012-01-12 29.2 0 3 1990-01-12 27.5 0 4 2002-01-12 27.1 0 - 1987-01-12 27.1 0 5 1983-01-12 26.9 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 56 minutes ago, CIK62 said: 12Z Summary: GFS up to the 30th. 0" Snow 2.1" Rain coldest day(27th.) 14/27, equivalent to last year's lowest T. CMC up to the 23rd. 2" Snow 1.8 " Rain coldest day 25/37. EURO up to the 23rd. Trace 0.4" Rain coldest day 17/30. Using the 12Z T's which average 34.5degs.(30/39) uncorrected for the next 17 days, January should be somewhere between 32.1 to 35.1 by the 30th. In addition ACCUWEATHER is taking all T's up it seems, on a nationwide basis, for the next 6 months. Warns of SW Drought this summer. This summer is one of those 11-year cycle years, 1933,44,55,66,77,88,99,2010 +11 = 2021. Bound to be AN. Odds that J,F,M finish AN around here on average is 2:1. That J,J,A finish AN around here the odds are now a whopping 5:1. Top Secret>>>>> I am hiding my SPF 45 in my snow boots. Which one do you think I will need first? Euro has 3 inches of snow on the 21st 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12Z EURO 1/21 Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: Warmest start to January on record for Bismarck, ND at +18.5. Time Series Summary for Bismarck Area, ND (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2021-01-12 30.8 0 2 2012-01-12 29.2 0 3 1990-01-12 27.5 0 4 2002-01-12 27.1 0 - 1987-01-12 27.1 0 5 1983-01-12 26.9 0 That’s about to change for the second half of the month lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That’s about to change for the second half of the month lol The Northern Tier will eventually cool with the more Niña-like -EPO -PNA -AO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: hopefully that NAO wraps up in March-last few years of it starting in March/April have ruined our springs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: 12Z Summary: GFS up to the 30th. 0" Snow 2.1" Rain coldest day(27th.) 14/27, equivalent to last year's lowest T. CMC up to the 23rd. 2" Snow 1.8 " Rain coldest day 25/37. EURO up to the 23rd. Trace 0.4" Rain coldest day 17/30. Using the 12Z T's which average 34.5degs.(30/39) uncorrected for the next 17 days, January should be somewhere between 32.1 to 35.1 by the 30th. In addition ACCUWEATHER is taking all T's up it seems, on a nationwide basis, for the next 6 months. Warns of SW Drought this summer. This summer is one of those 11-year cycle years, 1933,44,55,66,77,88,99,2010 +11 = 2021. Bound to be AN. Odds that J,F,M finish AN around here on average is 2:1. That J,J,A finish AN around here the odds are now a whopping 5:1. Top Secret>>>>> I am hiding my SPF 45 in my snow boots. Which one do you think I will need first? Again, useless as tits on a bull beyond 7 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: hopefully that NAO wraps up in March-last few years of it starting in March/April have ruined our springs It would be a travesty if we waste this blocking in the heart of winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It would be a travesty if we waste this blocking in the heart of winter. hasn't done much yet-no cold air so Saturday's storm is all rain. Hopefully we can get some true arctic air in, otherwise we're blocking 40 degree air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 No significant changes to expectations from early this morning. The ensembles just don't get very excited for qpf up here after the 16th but fwiw... the 6-10day and 8-14D FM CPC updated a few minutes ago are normal precip here with a definite cool down after the 23rd. For me: No topic yet on 21st-22nd... NAEFS shows this suppressed a bit while some of the op models attempt too intense low pressure too far north. I like the idea of a secondary wave s of LI. No matter, just have to wait that out. It's not blockbuster but it looks wintry to me along and n of I80 (except maybe LI) I've added several NAEFS graphics from the 11th,12th,13th 00z cycles to show the steadiness of a qpf event Hud Valley east in the 24 hours ending 00z/17. The NAEFS seems to have been leading on this which would be the GEPS contribution. The reason i show this... NAEFS can be helpful in gauging confidence and how far off the deep end should we dive into an event. These NAEFS graphics show the mean at 5,10, 20MM (0.2", 0.4" 0.8") withe variability color coded within. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: hopefully that NAO wraps up in March-last few years of it starting in March/April have ruined our springs Thank you. Was just mentioning this to the missus. I hate wet, cold, muddy Marches and Aprils. Just give me mild and gentle rain, and let my grass grow and for my kids to play baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 When can we start talking about sun angle? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: When can we start talking about sun angle? That's a March topic, soon enough we'll be discussing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: hasn't done much yet-no cold air so Saturday's storm is all rain. Hopefully we can get some true arctic air in, otherwise we're blocking 40 degree air. We just can’t get any pac improvements. We have a +pna now but the low south of ak keeps killing the attempts of a stout pna. We will now flip it around with a -epo/-pna/-ao/-nao to see if it works better lol. It will definitely increases the storm chances 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The Pacific Jet continues to make headlines. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 A relatively quiet weather pattern remains in place. The dry weather could last through much of this week before a storm impacts the region late Friday or Saturday. The first 15 days of January are well on track toward finishing generally warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada overall. During the second half of January, there will be some potential for snow events in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, the evolution of the AO will determine whether such potential continues into February. Uncertainty about the long-range has increased. There had been emerging ensemble guidance showing that the AO could go positive in the closing week of January, but more recent guidance shows a continuation of Arctic blocking. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +23.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.728. On January 12 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.259 (RMM). The January 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.242. Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The mean zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. They could still reverse at 30 mb. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will likely split. The dominant piece will, as is typical with such events, migrate to Eurasia. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. Blocking appears likely to continue into at least the last week of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.7°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Nothing looks very encouraging to me from a winter weather perspective out at least a week, apart from a few chances for flurries. The Jan 21-23 period still holds some hope, but that seems to gradually be delayed and or deamplified (weak upper level support) as we get closer. Obviously things in model world can change quickly, so we track... It's been about 4 consecutive weeks without a decent winter threat, but there is at least another 4 weeks of potential prime winter left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 14 hours ago, Allsnow said: My prediction of a slow weakening looks good according to your favorite model the cfs the cfs is the least accurate model of them all, which makes all of this even more hilarious lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 13 hours ago, The Iceman said: You said this was a strong nina like a month ago. Now it's solid moderate in your own words. So how isn't it weakening? This is never going to be a "strong la nina" that was settled weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 10 hours ago, bluewave said: Warmest start to January on record for Bismarck, ND at +18.5. Time Series Summary for Bismarck Area, ND (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2021-01-12 30.8 0 2 2012-01-12 29.2 0 3 1990-01-12 27.5 0 4 2002-01-12 27.1 0 - 1987-01-12 27.1 0 5 1983-01-12 26.9 0 The entire planet is roasting, this is obviously part of the long term climate trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 hours ago, bluewave said: The Northern Tier will eventually cool with the more Niña-like -EPO -PNA -AO pattern. the long term climate trend is far stronger than any ENSO state, I doubt there is going to be much if any cooling.....except for the usual suspects in the mountainous west, they seem to be the last to the warming climate party as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: hopefully that NAO wraps up in March-last few years of it starting in March/April have ruined our springs you can still get decent snow storms in the first half of April....so I'd rather the warmth start after the 15th and hopefully we have a roasting hot summer with multiple 100 degree days like we did in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 7 hours ago, North and West said: Thank you. Was just mentioning this to the missus. I hate wet, cold, muddy Marches and Aprils. Just give me mild and gentle rain, and let my grass grow and for my kids to play baseball. once we no longer have any snow chances I want it to BAKE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/12/2021 at 4:32 PM, bluewave said: Yes, 1985 had the strongest block. But it had much more Arctic air since we had the historic Arctic outbreak in January before it snowed. So it’s no surprise that that was the best snowfall outcome. 2 moderate events just under 6” in NYC. The abundance of Arctic air helped compensate for the big -PNA trough out West. That’s why I am hoping we can get the trough to pull off the West Coast during the retrogression so we could do better. Since there is only so much snow we can get with the trough sitting in the West. AO 1985 1 18 -5.693 1985 1 19 -6.226 1985 1 20 -5.581 1985 1 21 -4.224 1985 1 22 -2.916 1985 1 23 -2.175 1985 1 24 -1.791 1985 1 25 -1.765 1985 1 26 -1.843 1985 1 27 -1.908 1985 1 28 -1.656 1985 1 29 -1.258 1985 1 30 -0.766 1985 1 31 -0.275 1985 2 1 -0.488 1985 2 2 -1.502 1985 2 3 -1.968 1985 2 4 -1.905 1985 2 5 -2.345 1985 2 6 -3.310 1985 2 7 -3.541 1985 2 8 -3.360 1985 2 9 -3.435 1985 2 10 -3.569 1985 2 11 -3.455 1985 2 12 -3.381 NYC snowfall 1985-02-01 37 32 34.5 1.3 30 0 0.39 0.0 1 1985-02-02 35 25 30.0 -3.3 35 0 0.50 4.3 1 1985-02-03 30 19 24.5 -8.9 40 0 0.00 0.0 4 1985-02-04 33 17 25.0 -8.5 40 0 0.00 0.0 4 1985-02-05 28 23 25.5 -8.2 39 0 0.23 3.3 3 1985-02-06 28 24 26.0 -7.8 39 0 0.17 2.4 7 1985-02-07 30 20 25.0 -8.9 40 0 T T 7 1985-02-08 23 14 18.5 -15.6 46 0 T T 5 funny thing was Feb 1985 was quite mild after the historic inauguration outbreak....by the way that was the last time we had a high in the single digits wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 17 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: figure I’ll toss this out once again. The theme of rather scary analogs for tornado season continues. While obviously not implicating any one event this year matches the ferocity of those, the potential very much exists. It should also be noted that in some of these examples a TC would then eventually ride up the East Coast, most notably (and recently) Irene. Interesting thing to throw out there is, in our new climate, it looks like Dixie Alley is the new hot spot for tornadoes. They seem to be getting it much more than the traditional tornado alley now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 15 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we are finally getting a more La Niña-like PNA response. Chicago hasn't had much of a winter, and I have extreme doubts this is going to radically change. It looks like Minnesota and points north and west of that are the places to be. The mountainous west, notably, has been the most resistant to the warming climate signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Good Thursday morning everyone, Jan 14. On topics The Fri night-Sat wet snow should be just a few obs extreme northwest part of the forum. I think LI/CT can handle the 1-3" rain and gusty wind to 40 MPH early Sat. Jan 21-23 as others note... relatively small with uncertainty, but I guess any snow would be noteworthy. For now holding off on a topic... at least GGEM/EC and now the planned soon to be implemented GFSv16 are on board, but for how long, and is it mostly snow or does LI have mostly rain. West-east pulses of jet stream energy can toss out nice snows but would like to see better lower level inflow. -- Day by day starting with Today: Mainly on or north of I84. A period of inconsequential light snow possible high terrain between now-1P. Late Friday-Saturday night: Poconos (especially MT Cobb exit 8) should see 1" to worst case possibly 4" of snow and a period of untreated hazardous conditions, especially Friday night and late Saturday. Meanwhile east of PA along and north of the I84 high terrain above 700 feet, periods of rain may change to wet snow at times. Amounts of an inch or so possible highest terrain west of the Ct River (Litchfield County) but nil elsewhere. Monday the 18th: Northeast USA from Baltimore northward to I84. A period of light snow or flurries possible. No hazard and this based on strong short wave passage. Modeling tends to be dry. Late Thursday 21-late Friday 22nd: Philly to maybe as far north as I84. VERY early with uncertainty of northward extent and rain/ice line but this does appear to me to be a fairly widespread light hazardous wintry weather event of a small plowable snow and/or ice combo (except LI mainly rain?) Around Monday the 25th: Probably another widespread light wintry event from the nations midsection into the lower Great Lakes and a portion of the northeast USA. Again uncertainty. 602A/14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/43). Making it 34degs., or +2.0 because I am a nice guy. No BN T's till the 24th. on this run. I am not going to mention snow since the models can not produce coherent consecutive outputs. But I am going to devise a way for them to pick my PowerBall & MegaBall #'s. 39*(70%RH) here at 6am. 40* at 6:30am. 42* by 9am. 45* by 10am. 50* by Noon. 52* by 4pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: The entire planet is roasting, this is obviously part of the long term climate trend. We are actually doing better here relative to the means than areas closer to the Northern Tier. NYC is still ahead of Grand Rapids in snowfall through January 13th. Bismarck has gone the latest ever without a reading below 0°.Their average first below 0° date since 1980 is December 1st. So this would be like NYC not going below freezing until January. Time Series Summary for Bismarck Area, ND (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 13 Missing Count 1 2021-01-13 0 0 2 1955-01-13 -6 0 3 2012-01-13 -7 0 - 2003-01-13 -7 0 - 1983-01-13 -7 0 - 1908-01-13 -7 0 - 1891-01-13 -7 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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