wdrag Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Good Wednesday morning to all, Jan 13. Weather.US models rts ~550A EST. I think our long rangers are going to be relatively happy... flurries into NYC Sat night or Sunday Morning, maybe a period of wet light melting snow Monday in NYC, and then potential for several events late 21st through the end of the month. I'm thinking a model topic for 1/21-22. Even if mostly wet NYC, I think a significant wintry event for part of our area, between I80 and I90 (Ohio eastward), is coming in that two day time frame per GFS 15 and 16, GGEM, NAEFS and EPS ensemble. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/44). Making it 34degs., or +2.0 No BN T's till the 20th, No Snow till the 27th. on this run. The GFS will get it right given enough chances. lol. 06Z has snow on the 22nd and 27th. 39*(59%RH) here at 6am. (Was 37* at 1am) 42* by Noon. 44* by 3pm. 40* by 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Quick idea of what I'm expecting in our NYC forum coverage area. Wintry hazardous weather opportunities, long heralded for January, but so far, suppressed to our south, should gradually become known to everyone here in the northeast USA by the end of next week (21st-22nd, for which am considering a topic but want to wait til late today before committing) My take below from a review of many 00z/13 ops and ensembles. Day by day starting with Thursday: I84 corridor to Boston. Mostly north of I84 but a period of light snow or flurries should occur between 5AM and 2PM Thursday. Probably inconsequential. Late Friday-Saturday night: Poconos should see 1 to possibly 4" of snow and a period of untreated hazardous conditions, especially Saturday afternoon-evening. Meanwhile east of PA along the the I84 high terrain above 700 feet, periods of rain change to wet snow at times, with most of the snow later Saturday. Amounts of an inch or so highest terrain but negligible in the valleys. Monday the 18th: A period of snow or flurries possible. Small amounts possible but for now, not much of a hazard, if any at all. Thursday-Friday the 21st-22nd: Entire northeast USA from Ohio eastward along and north of I80. VERY early but this does appear to be a fairly widespread hazardous wintry weather event of plowable snow and/or ice. Rain could get involved south of I84?? Just too early for me to be sure of suppression that allows significant snow into NYC. Around Monday the 25th: Probably another widespread wintry event from the nations midsection into the lower Great Lakes and a portion of the northeast USA. If it's not the 25th, then maybe the 27th but for now am concentrating on the 25th. For both the 21st-22nd and ~ the 25th: Potentially a period of travel problems for many in the heart of winter. The usual amount of uncertainties prevail, inclusive of how strong the Canadian high pressure and it's suppressive southward dominance in the northern USA. Added a couple of GEFS probs from the 00z/13 GEFS (chance of Greater than 2" of snow, and chance of >1/4" qpf). Serves as a starter to compare future ensemble probs. Have a good day. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 figure I’ll toss this out once again. The theme of rather scary analogs for tornado season continues. While obviously not implicating any one event this year matches the ferocity of those, the potential very much exists. It should also be noted that in some of these examples a TC would then eventually ride up the East Coast, most notably (and recently) Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 42° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 46° The dry weather will continue through much of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The GFS/GEFS cold bias has gotten so bad, it has basically become an irrelevant model, this is just insane: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 hours ago, wdrag said: I think our long rangers are going to be relatively happy... flurries into NYC Sat night or Sunday Morning, maybe a period of wet light melting snow Monday in NYC, and then potential for several events late 21st through the end of the month. I'm thinking a model topic for 1/21-22. Even if mostly wet NYC, I think a significant wintry event for part of our area, between I80 and I90 (Ohio eastward), is coming in that two day time frame per GFS 15 and 16, GGEM, NAEFS and EPS ensemble. The 21st still looks like a pretty weak signal to me. It's also 8.5 days out. We've had several of these head fakes over the past few weeks, and most threats have faded with time. The wave train continues, with a new system moving through every 2 - 3 days, which might actually be too active with non ideal spacing. The activity looks good and the forecasted trof axis looks promising. Hopefully one of these systems will sharpen up soon enough to impact us... not way out in the Canadian Maritimes. But which one? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS/GEFS cold bias has gotten so bad, it has basically become an irrelevant model, this is just insane: It appears that the new GFS v16 scheduled to go operational in February has fixed the cold bias. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 37 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 21st still looks like a pretty weak signal to me. It's also 8.5 days out. We've had several of these head fakes over the past few weeks, and most threats have faded with time. The wave train continues, with a new system moving through every 2 - 3 days, which might actually be too active with non ideal spacing. The activity looks good and the forecasted trof axis looks promising. Hopefully one of these systems will sharpen up soon enough to impact us... not way out in the Canadian Maritimes. But which one? I agree and also creating winter storm threads and trying to determine which areas of the Metro will get what precip amount and type will be a real challenge because right now guidance has been all over the place past 5 days especially.......typical pattern change reaction from most of the models.......so far most guidance is not showing any significant winter threat around most of the metro..around the 20th IMO we will have a better idea how this pattern might play out... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 @bluewave @donsutherland1 Here’s the CFS extremely well predicted secondary peak in January. This La Niña is far from dying... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 models coming into line for a big rain event mainly NY east Friday night into Sat will break a 15 day streak of no precip - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @bluewave @donsutherland1 Here’s the CFS extremely well predicted secondary peak in January. This La Niña is far from dying... Haha. No it’s not. You’re not showing the whole picture. Enso 1/2 and 3 have warmed. This is a west base nino with the coldest anomalies in the western enso. It’s still weakening. It bottomed out in early October 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we are finally getting a more La Niña-like PNA response. This will pump up the ridge in the east. We should be fine as long as the blocking doesn't go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Looks like CPC is anticipating a clipper pattern - southern stream is quiet - no miller A's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Looks like CPC is anticipating a clipper pattern - southern stream is quiet - no miller A's Looks like a SWFE pattern to me with vorts dropping down and trying to phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 48 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha. No it’s not. You’re not showing the whole picture. Enso 1/2 and 3 have warmed. This is a west base nino with the coldest anomalies in the western enso. It’s still weakening. It bottomed out in early October Haha Niño 3.4 and 4 are dropping. Not weakening. Dropping SST = not weakening. Solid Moderate La Niña. In fact, it’s now a Modoki La Niña Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, snowman19 said: Haha Niña 3.4 and 4 are dropping. Not weakening. Dropping SST = not weakening. Solid Moderate La Niña. In fact, it’s now a Modoki La Niña Your secondary peak post was incorrect. Nothing true about it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: Your secondary peak post was incorrect. Nothing true about it lol How’s the collapse you predicted going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: How’s the collapse you predicted going? My prediction of a slow weakening looks good according to your favorite model the cfs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 49 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Looks like CPC is anticipating a clipper pattern - southern stream is quiet - no miller A's We hope for the little clipper that could... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Looks like CPC is anticipating a clipper pattern - southern stream is quiet - no miller A's We are going into a -PMM. That is going to dramatically weaken the STJ from here on out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are going into a -PMM. That is going to dramatically weaken the STJ from here on out we'll need to rely on clippers or small events-maybe one will bomb out ala Miller B. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 48 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Haha Niño 3.4 and 4 are dropping. Not weakening. Dropping SST = not weakening. Solid Moderate La Niña. In fact, it’s now a Modoki La Niña You said this was a strong nina like a month ago. Now it's solid moderate in your own words. So how isn't it weakening? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, looks like a very fast flow across the Northern Tier. The -PNA trough drops into the West with the 50/50 trough to our east. So storm spacing and late developing Miller Bs could be an issue. The EPS late January forecast is hinting at this. I’ll take my chances with colder air and that beautiful west based block and -EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 35 minutes ago, chris21 said: I’ll take my chances with colder air and that beautiful west based block and -EPO. Would be better if that west-coast trough were to park itself just a tad offshore. Then, I think we'd be in business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: Here is the NYC 10 date snowstorm outcome for -EPO-PNA -AO in January and February. The snowfall was within a week of the dates below. 1985 had 2 storms and the other years 1. 19790128....T 19850206....5.7 20010207....3.5 19660118....2.4 19680107....1.5 19820120....1.9 19710107....0.0 19620117....0.1 19690110....1.0 19850201....4.3 19710107.... 0.0 ?? ........ these are the only ones ? Which years had the same -EPO-PNA-AO and had none ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Not much cold air anywhere per the GEFS in the next week to 10 days. January will have some fairly high positive temp deparatures given that many places around here are running +4 to +6 - 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Gfs and euro are so different for next week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12Z Summary: GFS up to the 30th. 0" Snow 2.1" Rain coldest day(27th.) 14/27, equivalent to last year's lowest T. CMC up to the 23rd. 2" Snow 1.8 " Rain coldest day 25/37. EURO up to the 23rd. Trace 0.4" Rain coldest day 17/30. Using the 12Z T's which average 34.5degs.(30/39) uncorrected for the next 17 days, January should be somewhere between 32.1 to 35.1 by the 30th. In addition ACCUWEATHER is taking all T's up it seems, on a nationwide basis, for the next 6 months. Warns of SW Drought this summer. This summer is one of those 11-year cycle years, 1933,44,55,66,77,88,99,2010 +11 = 2021. Bound to be AN. Odds that J,F,M finish AN around here on average is 2:1. That J,J,A finish AN around here the odds are now a whopping 5:1. Top Secret>>>>> I am hiding my SPF 45 in my snow boots. Which one do you think I will need first? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I'll take a clipper or 3, it's been too long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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