MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Here January 2011 which is a close match also Models are slowly bringing back the storm for the 19th. We need the SE ridge to pump up. Too much suppression right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I don't understand his screen name with everything he posts. He should really change it to rainman or warmandwet. He posts the opposite what other posts all the time. He keeps posting about the negative PNA ruining the winter but the models are also showing a negative epo and negative AO/ NAO. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 45 minutes ago, bluewave said: I will be happy If we can get that -PNA trough off the West Coast for at least a few days. The 360 hr EPS is taking a step in the right direction. But you can see how important that ridge over the Plains was for the 3-22-18 event when the -PNA trough pulled back. We have to account for the longer wavelengths this time of year though, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 58 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snowman19 keeps denying everything you post. Anthony, I believe S19 is more of a skeptic in delivery. Its perhaps advisable to have a skeptics view is a sea of hearts and floweres. That individual will likely be the only one to find the leak in the boat. The Gods are kind in allowing it to be foisted on you for a limited amount of times daily. As always .... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Eduardo said: We have to account for the longer wavelengths this time of year though, no? This is the composite for the last 10 La Niña events to reach 6” or more in NYC during January and February. That’s why we need that -PNA trough out West to pull back off the West Coast at storm time. Like I said in the post above, relevant details like that may not be known for a while yet. And there may have probably been lesser than 6” storms that had more leeway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I have a stupid question. Where can I find full size individual member maps for the GFS and Euro ensembles? Weatherbell used to have the Euro members out to ten days but I can't find it anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 WPC January 19 -25 - there will be storms to track around here starting later this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: meanwhile someone on twitter was posting about how to commit the "perfect murder"- it had something to do with melting icicles lol. My guess, Liberty, is that a malign reagent, that activates with the melting, was somehow encased in the icicle. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yeah, a full latitude -PNA trough dumped into the west is not going to work.... That look is a lot better than you're giving it credit for. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Eduardo said: We have to account for the longer wavelengths this time of year though, no? Yes definitely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 12Z GFS has the storm along the coast again early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS has the storm along the coast again early next week And another one on the 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And another one on the 22 yes just as I suspected around January 20th - Feb 11th give or take a few days we might be back in business around here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: yes just as I suspected around January 20th - Feb 11th give or take a few days we might be back in business around here I like this pic better =) More favorable pattern starts next week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 12Z GEM trying to join the party along the east coast just a little too far offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Even the 12Z ICON is showing the potential early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Another storm at the end of the month but that's way far out. Very active GFS run with alot of blocking . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another storm at the end of the month but that's way far out. Very active GFS run with alot of blocking . CMC also has storm on 22nd BUT borderline cold enough airmass in place according to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Another storm at the end of the month but that's way far out. Very active GFS run with alot of blocking . Are we seeing phantoms? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 ACCUWEATHER says after a brief cold spell during the last week of January-----------------THE WINTER WILL BE OVER. AO going + and MJO migrating into the warm phases. Says they are taking temperatures from AN to way AN for the eastern 2/3's of the country. I agree, but the word OVER is idiotic. It never started. All BN and any Snow will be accidental and thus unpredictable. Depressing. A SSWE wasted. And as if to put italics to it all, my current T at 1pm is 43*. 44* by 3pm. 45* at 3:30pm. Now after 3 or 4 runs with no Snow or little else, we get this: To be gone by 18Z? G O N E!!!***** Courtesy of WeatherBell *****And we have a hole in our head again: SSSS Top is from 18Z. The snow is rain compared to the 12Z Meteorgram. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, CIK62 said: ACCUWEATHER says after a brief cold spell during the last week of January-----------------THE WINTER WILL BE OVER. AO going + and MJO migrating into the warm phases. Says they are taking temperatures from AN to way AN for the eastern 2/3's of the country. I agree, but the word OVER is idiotic. It never started. All BN and any Snow will be accidental and thus unpredictable. Depressing. A SSWE wasted. And as if to put italics to it all, my current T at 1pm is 43*. Just remember you can still get snow events here if the timing is favorable.........they actually stated "The Winter Will Be Over" ? please post the evidence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 35 minutes ago, CIK62 said: ACCUWEATHER says after a brief cold spell during the last week of January-----------------THE WINTER WILL BE OVER. AO going + and MJO migrating into the warm phases. Says they are taking temperatures from AN to way AN for the eastern 2/3's of the country. I agree, but the word OVER is idiotic. It never started. All BN and any Snow will be accidental and thus unpredictable. Depressing. A SSWE wasted. And as if to put italics to it all, my current T at 1pm is 43*. AO sure looks to be going positive ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: AO sure looks to be going positive ... Maybe - Maybe NOT look closer many member still on the negative side of the line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Maybe - Maybe NOT look closer many member still on the negative side of the line.... Sorry , that was meant to be sarcasm. I really meant it's way too early to be saying that. In the near term, the AO tanks then the ensembles are kind of torn on where to go from there. The blocking in the NAO region seems to be going nowhere quick and many times the AO follows the NAO. Plus a rise towards neutral after going sharply negative is when we see our biggest events. Imo the pattern looks the best it has all winter starting next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The 12Z EURO wants to basically continue the pattern we are in now next week with storms being prevented from riding up the coast -NOT GOOD ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: The 12Z EURO wants to basically continue the pattern we are in now next week with storms being prevented from riding up the coast -NOT GOOD ! Need the PNA to pump the ridge But we will track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Starting to feel like last year where the models had a great pattern then right about 1/15 or so, the rug gets pulled out.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: The record Pacific Jet is too overpowering through the next 10 days. Eps is north of the op for next weekend. Models are starting to signal a stormy pattern ahead . Just need the pac to cooperate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is north of the op for next weekend. Models are starting to signal a stormy pattern ahead . Just need the pac to cooperate. Pac hasn't cooperated in 3 years....doubt it starts now-this pattern doesnt look all that exciting anymore 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Pac hasn't cooperated in 3 years....doubt it starts now-this pattern doesnt look all that exciting anymore Exactly. We are also missing true arctic air. It’s just one big blah of continental polar air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now