LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 10:30 AM, NEG NAO said: do you have a chart of the number of days between each one of NYC;s 10 inch or greater snowfalls ? I'd like to see a chart showing the minimum temps 7 days and closer in before our 10 inch snowfalls. At least since 2002..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:42 AM, bluewave said: Yeah, it’s a very well identified pattern. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/climate-change-rule-thumb-cold-things-warming-faster-warm-things Colder places are warming faster than warmer places Colder seasons are warming faster than warmer seasons Colder times of day are warming more than warmer times of day also just as important DRY/SEMI ARID PLACES ARE GETTING DRIER WET HUMID PLACES ARE GETTING WETTER AND MORE HUMID THIS MEANS BOTH BIGGER PRECIP RAIN BOMBS AND SNOW BOMBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:16 AM, donsutherland1 said: At some point, I may create one for ABE. That will require some research. However, the chart is as wide as Tableau Public permits. When I added ISP, the chart reached the edge of the permissible boundaries of the software. Thanks Don, can you post the link again, I have it saved at my other home and can't it from here. It should be stickied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 On 1/8/2021 at 8:30 AM, MJO812 said: Looks like you might be right The NAO is suppressing everything right now this isn't a surprise, we had this happen last year too and in many other winters especially in January (2001-02 comes to mind, as well as 2011-12). Many of these winters saw big snowfalls in the Carolinas, more than what we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: also....the reason why I say there is no defined enso pattern for us is no matter what signal you get, chances are (I'd say 9 out of 10), it'll be above normal temps.....el nino, we have above normal temps, la nina we have above normal temps, neutral, we have above normal temps. It all comes down to timing between storms and the short duration cold shots we do get. You'll be right 90% of the time if you forecast a milder than normal winter, the real talent is in forecasting how much snow and when lol. I make snowfall a focal point of my outlooks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I make snowfall a focal point of my outlooks. I'm grateful that cold and dry winters have become rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/43). Making it 34degs., or +1.0. No cold till the 25th. We have slid ahead a week---in a week. GEFS Extended goes sub-zero on the Control Member for the 29th. It has almost no snow for its duration however. 33*(70%RH) here at 6am. 37* by 9am. 40* by 11am. 41* by Noon. 43* by 1pm. 44* at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Good Tuesday morning everyone, Jan 12. I don't think any significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events are showing up for most of NYC forum prior to the 25th, nor any sustained below normal cold that lasts more than 3 days. We may eventually be able to topic an OBS thread for the I84 corridor late 15-16 high terrain, and there will be a few dustings I84 corridor, possibly starting as early as this Thursday the 14th, and on into the middle of next week. I just don't see anything big down here, at least not yet. Specifically the Poconos: A hazardous wintry snow event is likely late Friday and Saturday morning (15-16) when 1 to possibly as much as 4" may accumulate, with small additional accumulations of snow showers thereafter into Sunday. I84 east of PA: a low chance of a slight accumulation of snow higher terrain Saturday the 16th (rain ends as snow?), some flurry dustings Sunday? Then the 18th-20th--chance for a period of light snow. Around Monday the 25th: By this date, a pattern change will probably allow the development of a widespread wintry event from the nations midsection into the lower Great Lakes and a portion of the northeast USA. Not necessarily major but potentially a travel problem for many. The usual amount of uncertainties prevail, inclusive of how strong the Canadian high pressure and it's suppressive southward dominance in the northern USA, as well as the strength and progressiveness of a strong short wave(s) heading east from the western USA. I see the 06z/12 para has the 25th weak and a second stronger ~ the 27TH. I do not know what will happen but I like a pattern with cold high pressure already stretched to our north along the Canadian-US border, in advance of any WAA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The fact that NYC is yet to drop below 20° highlights how little Arctic air has been around. This is only the 5 year that NYC has gone this far into the cold season without one. For Boston it’s only the 6th year not to drop below 16. At BTV it’s only the 10th year not to reach 0 yet. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 1975-01-12 26 0 2 2013-01-12 22 0 3 2021-01-12 20 1 - 2002-01-12 20 0 - 1932-01-12 20 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2002-01-12 22 0 2 2007-01-12 20 0 3 1975-01-12 17 0 4 2021-01-12 16 1 - 1955-01-12 16 0 - 1929-01-12 16 1 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2007-01-12 5 0 2 2002-01-12 3 0 3 2016-01-12 2 0 - 2000-01-12 2 0 5 2021-01-12 1 1 - 2012-01-12 1 0 - 1987-01-12 1 0 - 1955-01-12 1 0 - 1932-01-12 1 0 - 1924-01-12 1 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Don, can you post the link again, I have it saved at my other home and can't it from here. It should be stickied! https://public.tableau.com/profile/don.sutherland#!/vizhome/NYCArea6Snowstorms/Dashboard1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 9 hours ago, Rjay said: I'd take this look on the EPS, GEFS and GEPS I think we’ll need that -PNA trough over the Western US to back off a bit from what the week 2 EPS has. In March 2018 it pulled just off the West Coast with higher heights over Southern Canada. This allowed a ridge in Minnesota for separation between systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think we’ll need that -PNA trough over the Western US to back off a bit from what the week 2 EPS has. In March 2018 it pulled just off the West Coast with higher heights over Southern Canada. This allowed a ridge in Minnesota for separation between systems. Yeah, a full latitude -PNA trough dumped into the west is not going to work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yeah, a full latitude -PNA trough dumped into the west is not going to work.... Yes it will with a negative EPO and negative NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Yes it will with a negative EPO and negative NAO You are going to get cutters, enjoy. That is a bad look south of New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You are going to get cutters, enjoy. That is a bad look south of New England No it isnt Stop posting false things Now if the NAO goes away than its another story GFS and Euro looks great but we need precip . Very cold and dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 This is from the Mid Atlantic forum. Very nice look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You are going to get cutters, enjoy. That is a bad look south of New England Haha. No it’s not with a -nao and -epo lol. So much for that Niña look you been waiting for 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I'd like to see a chart showing the minimum temps 7 days and closer in before our 10 inch snowfalls. At least since 2002..... I do remember receiving some large snow storms preceded by abnormally warm day(s). Don't asks for any dates or years, my mind is shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No it isnt Stop posting false things Now if the NAO goes away than its another story GFS and Euro looks great but we need precip . Very cold and dry. This remains the big issue. Most places have less than a quarter inch of precip this month and the trend looks to continue-can argue over cutters and what's a great pattern but without any storms who cares what the pattern looks like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Lots of Frost 26F. A sure sign that a warmer air mass is coming in today. But looks pretty and reminds me it is January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and a bit milder than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 44° The dry weather will continue through much of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 @bluewave here week 3 with more of a march 2018 look 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Lots of Frost 26F. A sure sign that a warmer air mass is coming in today. But looks pretty and reminds me it is January Yup, thickest frost in a long time this morning. Such fascinating weather... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha. No it’s not with a -nao and -epo lol. So much for that Niña look you been waiting for So much for the collapsed Niña you predicted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: This remains the big issue. Most places have less than a quarter inch of precip this month and the trend looks to continue-can argue over cutters and what's a great pattern but without any storms who cares what the pattern looks like. 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No it isnt Stop posting false things Now if the NAO goes away than its another story GFS and Euro looks great but we need precip . Very cold and dry. Stop with what the New England forum said. We are not New England. South of New England you will have problems with that look. You have a full latitude trough dumped in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave here week 3 with more of a march 2018 look I will be happy If we can get that -PNA trough off the West Coast for at least a few days. The 360 hr EPS is taking a step in the right direction. But you can see how important that ridge over the Plains was for the 3-22-18 event when the -PNA trough pulled back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Stop with what the New England forum said. We are not New England. South of New England you will have problems with that look. You have a full latitude trough dumped in the west You are just going to ignore the big time -nao and -epo? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave here week 3 with more of a march 2018 look Snowman19 keeps denying everything you post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Here January 2011 which is a close match also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Snowman19 keeps denying everything you post. I agree with that. Week 2 is not a good look. The trough needs to pull back off the west coast.Please stop 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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