MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: With a trough dumped into the west with the RNA you are going to get cutters. Better hope the -NAO doesn’t go away Better than what we have now. Give me front end thumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I will sweat out SWFE Better than watching storms getting shredded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s ironic that we may get our first -EPO drop since mid-December as the PNA is turning negative just after the 20th. This can often happen as the ridge pulls back to Aleutians and higher heights extend toward Alaska. So it looks like the PNA drop which the models had originally forecast near the start of February is moving up by 6-10 days. What do you think this means for February if things continue to shift west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 25 and cloudy. Cold and boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 next 10 days on GFS: Bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Since the fall it's been one system after another into the pac NW and SW Canada. The same happened last winter. Until that changes it is going to be difficult to get a long lasting wintry pattern established in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Think NCEP having or was having a comms problem with the 12z/11 cycle but GGEM rolling and continues minor hopes for all amounts I84 west part 16th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: next 10 days on GFS: Bone dry We will see alot of this if a negative PNA and negative EPO develops. We have to hope the NAO also stays negative to shift the boundary south of us then the fun will start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Mins, Maxes, averages. Interesting stats but... Max temps here have been averaging a little above normal, min temps warmer than that (this morning being the one exception) and daily averages a few to several degrees above normal (and averaging above freezing every day since Jan 1 except one). But there is an interesting little side note. On some typical recent days with a min in the high 20s and max around 40, only about 6 hours per day have been at or above freezing. Temp drops quickly early evening and has been slow to rise in the mornings. Not every day, but there's been a lot of that since Jan 1. Min here this morning was 21 (-6C) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, wdrag said: Think NCEP having or was having a comms problem with the 12z/11 cycle but GGEM rolling and continues minor hopes for all amounts I84 west part 16th. There is a message on the PivotalWeather.com site saying NCEP is having data distribution problems.....I also suspect that most of the models will have major problems past day 5 especially adjusting to this pattern change coming up........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: There is a message on the PivotalWeather.com site saying NCEP is having data distribution problems.....I also suspect that most of the models will have major problems past day 5 especially adjusting to this pattern change coming up........... Thanks much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: I guess we’ll look to the weeklies later for some hints. But the PNA has been lingering in one phase for extended periods. It was negative from mid-October to mid-November. Then it if flipped positive from mid-November right into late January. The only thing stopping an all out torch is the -NAO. That look 1/21 and beyond (Aleutian ridge, -PNA, trough dumped into the west) would let the SE ridge go wild, the only thing fighting it is the -NAO, you lose that and we are screwed big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: next 10 days on GFS: Bone dry Even the ski zones are mostly dry save for a handful of areas. Stowe/Smuggs/Jay in VT and Snow Ridge/McCauley/Titus in the NY North Country. Ugly... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The only thing stopping an out out torch is the -NAO. That look 1/21 and beyond (Aleutian ridge, -PNA, trough dumped into the west) would let the SE ridge go wild, the only thing fighting it is the -NAO, you lose that and we are screwed big time So far, this winter is a lesson on how a favorable AO, NAO and PNA won't overcome a bonkers +EPO and raging PAC jet. If the EPO is pinching off any supply of arctic air, then nothing else really matters. With that said, if we do manage to relax the +EPO some, then we might have a chance to score. Niña February's tend to be unfriendly to us snow lover's though (save for 2006, of course). After that, we pin our hopes to wavelength-shortening dice-rolls. We really need that PAC jet to calm the eff down if we ever want to see long stretches of winter weather around here again. That thing really has spoiled the past few winters for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 12z GFS now starting to post on Pivatol where they had the headline for a delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 52 minutes ago, Eduardo said: So far, this winter is a lesson on how a favorable AO, NAO and PNA won't overcome a bonkers +EPO and raging PAC jet. If the EPO is pinching off any supply of arctic air, then nothing else really matters. With that said, if we do manage to relax the +EPO some, then we might have a chance to score. Niña February's tend to be unfriendly to us snow lover's though (save for 2006, of course). After that, we pin our hopes to wavelength-shortening dice-rolls. We really need that PAC jet to calm the eff down if we ever want to see long stretches of winter weather around here again. That thing really has spoiled the past few winters for us. It’s as if the historic December 2015 +13.3 reset the whole winter climate warmer. NYC Dec 15....+13.3 Jan 16....+1.9 Feb 16....+2.4 Dec 16....+0.8 Jan 17....+5.4 Feb 17....+6.3 Dec 17....-2.5 Jan 18.....-0.8 Feb 18....+6.7 Dec 18....+2.6 Jan 19....-0.1 Feb 19....+0.9 Dec 19....+0.8 Jan 20....+6.5 Feb 20....+4.8 Dec 20.....+1.7 Jan 21.....+3.6...so far 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s as if the historic December 2015 +13.3 reset the whole winter climate warmer. NYC Dec 15....+13.3 Jan 16....+1.9 Feb 16....+2.4 Dec 16....+0.8 Jan 17....+5.4 Feb 17....+6.3 Dec 17....-2.5 Jan 18.....-0.8 Feb 18....+6.7 Dec 18....+2.6 Jan 19....-0.1 Feb 19....+0.9 Dec 19....+0.8 Jan 20....+6.5 Feb 20....+4.8 Dec 20.....+1.7 Jan 21.....+3.6...so far Listing all of the post-Dec. 2015 winter month departures like this really drives home how much of an impact the 15–16 super Niño had on our climate. Dec. '17/Jan. '18 stand out (and including March '18 would color this a bit more, I'd think). Still, there's no denying that the super Niño shuffled things up. What caused the cold flip for EPO-driven winters in 13–14 and 14–15? I've heard conflicting arguments about the role of the NE PAC "blob" of warm water. Examining this might provide us with hints of what to look for if we ever want to see cold winters again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Big change on the eps today with a ridge bridge 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: Big change on the eps today with a ridge bridge care to explain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: care to explain ? Big negative epo and NAO pattern on the EPS along with a negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 On the day 10 euro op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: On the day 10 euro op Alot of SWFE, Overrunning events and Miller Bs with this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 The latest EPS weeklies keep the window of opportunity open from January 25th to Feb 1st. Jan 11-18 Jan 18-25 Jan 25-Feb 1 Feb 1 - Feb 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Ugly look to start February If that’s true. CFS has the same theme then drops the hammer for cold end of February lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ugly look to start February If that’s true. CFS has the same theme then drops the hammer for cold end of February lol I wonder if the ridge bridge over the top of the -PNA trough today is a result of the EPS seeing continuing influence from the SSW? This raises the question of whether the EPS will correct from what it’s showing now in early February. We really need a strong -EPO -AO connection to counteract the influence of the -PNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ugly look to start February If that’s true. CFS has the same theme then drops the hammer for cold end of February lol tick tock tick tock we better get something by the end of January.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I wonder if the ridge bridge over the top of the -PNA trough today is a result of the EPS seeing continuing influence from the SSW? This raises the question of whether the EPS will correct from what is is showing now in early February. We really need a strong -EPO -AO connection to counteract the influence of the -PNA. Yeah in those charts the effects of the ssw are dripping down into trop. It could’ve been why the big change today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: tick tock tick tock we better get something by the end of January.... That's if the weeklies are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ugly look to start February If that’s true. CFS has the same theme then drops the hammer for cold end of February lol A combination of a negative epo and nao will br nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: That's if the weeklies are correct The weeklies can be iffy-last 2 years they showed a great pattern that never came to fruition. I take them with a grain of salt past week 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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