Rjay Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 My January +3.5 call might bust too low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: If that's not mild Idk what is. Yes but again, it’s being driven by overnight lows. As several posters have pointed out. Daytime highs have not been that mild... yet. This week is a whole different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: If that's not mild Idk what is. It's not mild, it's above average. 50 is mild. I'm at 24 right now. If it only goes down to 18 is that mild because the normal low is 15? Asking for a friend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 A relatively quiet weather pattern remains in place. A seasonably cold but dry weekend lies ahead. The dry weather could last through at least the middle of week. The first 10-15 days of January will likely be generally warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada overall. After January 10, the EPS continues to shows a transition during which a trough will move into the East. During the second half of January, there will be some potential for snow events in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, the evolution of the AO will determine whether such potential continues into February. However, uncertainty about the long-range has increased. There is emerging ensemble guidance showing that the AO could go positive in the closing week of January. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +8.20 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.086. On January 9 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.443 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.618. Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The mean zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. They could still reverse at 30 mb. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will likely split. The dominant piece will, as is typical with such events, migrate to Eurasia. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. Blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January. There is emerging ensemble guidance suggesting that blocking could fade during the last week of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.6°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's not mild, it's above average. 50 is mild. I'm at 24 right now. If it only goes down to 18 is that mild because the normal low is 15? Asking for a friend. I dunno. 50 is boarder line spicy territory. I guess it depends on your heat tolerance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 IDK? My ground here is frozen solid. With still snow on the ground on 60% of my property. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 53 minutes ago, Rjay said: If that's not mild Idk what is. The numbers don’t lie. Maybe we should start using Real Feel temps for monthly averages... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Larry Cosgrove and DT are onboard for cold and snowy conditions in the east mid month. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 57 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's not mild, it's above average. 50 is mild. I'm at 24 right now. If it only goes down to 18 is that mild because the normal low is 15? Asking for a friend. Above average is above average. Doesn't need to be 50. But it's not like I don't get your point. +4 in Barrow, Alaska is frigid this time of year and around here +4 in Janaury doesn't necessarily mean "mild". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Above average is above average. Doesn't need to be 50. But it's not like I don't get your point. +4 in Barrow, Alaska is frigid this time of year and around here +4 in Janaury doesn't necessarily mean "mild". Yeah, mild is a relative, arbitrary, term. It’s easier, more accurate, to just say it’s solidly above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: I was wrong about KPOU...they are actually 5.3 above normal for the month. Albany is +4.2. Most stations are +4 to +5. Night time lows driving the warmth. Daytime highs are not that far from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 26 minutes ago, Rjay said: Above average is above average. Doesn't need to be 50. But it's not like I don't get your point. +4 in Barrow, Alaska is frigid this time of year and around here +4 in Janaury doesn't necessarily mean "mild". Exactly. I just hate the term mild because it may be above normal. Barrow's normal high right now is like -7 but and if they are -2 well that's not mild. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's been above normal for the month so far mainly because of nighttime lows. Highs in mid 30's is not "mild". I don't care what time of year it is. Yes. A lot of cloudy nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 35 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Exactly. I just hate the term mild because it may be above normal. Barrow's normal high right now is like -7 but and if they are -2 well that's not mild. Mid 30's to me in the day is not mild in my definition, even if the daily average is above normal skewed by higher overnight lows. It feels chilly to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Larry Cosgrove and DT are onboard for cold and snowy conditions in the east mid month. It's approaching mid month as we speak and models not showing any consistent snowstorm signals here. But I will defer to the experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 30 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Mid 30's to me in the day is not mild in my definition, even if the daily average is above normal skewed by higher overnight lows. It feels chilly to me. I know. It's been cold. 21 right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 N.J. weather 2021 outlook: All signs point to a stormy winter, with high snow potential https://trib.al/mOWUO50 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 It’s 15° here in lower Dutchess County. I still have snow from last week despite being above average. Tonight has been colder than the past several which have been in the lower 20’s with highs around 34 which is not mild. Mid forties to 50 is mild for this time of year. Only saw that on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(35/44). Making it 35degs., or +2.0. No snow to speak of on any regular model. Indeed no precipitation to speak of. Arctic cold still getting shoved further out in time. 50 degrees more likely than sub-20 till the 20th. at least. More likely the 23rd.+. Curses: The 06Z is even worse. The next 13 days are still averaging 40(35/45), uncorrected. No sub-20 readings till the 26th.+, but the 50's are back in vogue, so where is Elvis? 32*(64%RH) here at 5am. 31* at 6am. 33* by 9am. 38* by Noon. 39* by 3pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 10 hours ago, lee59 said: Nice still night out there tonight Going to be quite a range in temperatures between urban and rural. Already down to 27 here after a high of 41. ...14* @ KFOK ...24* here.. @6am....thats the big weather news of the day..big whoop!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Good Monday morning everyone, Jan 11. In my review of 00z/11 multiple ensembles, 00z-06z/11 operational models, the preponderance of model signals do not indicate (to me) significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events for most of the NYC forum prior to the 25th, nor any sustained below normal cold. Eventually something has to change for the I84-195 corridors (long shots 16th, or 18th-20th, 25th). Poconos: There may be a hazardous wintry snow event late Friday or Saturday morning (15-16), with dustings of flurries possible thereafter into Sunday. GFSV16. Large scale neg tilt trough moving ene from the Ohio Valley which also applies to the I84 below on Saturday. I84 east of PA: very low chance (Boundary Layer seems too warm) of a slight accumulation of snow Saturday the 16th (rain ends as snow? GFS V16, GGEM, EPS), some flurry dustings Sunday? Then the 18th-20th--low chance of some snow which that too could be suppressed southeast out to sea. Monitor but from my perspective, don't yet count on much. ~Monday the 25th: I may regret this part because verifying a widespread event 14 days in advance is about a coin flip or less, and so this is said with very very low confidence, It appears to me that an extensive area of precipitation may develop from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and northeast USA. The only thing I can say about this date (~25th) is that this seems to be the first extensive potential overrunning - storm system we have here in the northeast USA for the next two weeks (non rapidly moving vortex related CFP's). The baroclinic zone will shift from ne-sw over the se third of the USA to e-w somewhere in the Ohio Valley as two troughs evolve (Maritimes and w Coast). I know that we like a ridge in the w USA for big east coast troughs, but something is modeled in the multiple ensembles to begin growing in the Ohio Valley. Amounts are small right now, and so this could be a bust, but I do see a build up of at least normally cold or even colder than normal air trying to bank up from the Plains northwestward. So unless we do a 50-50 low at that time, we probably would have a cutter (inside runner) and mostly rain here along I95, maybe wintry further northwest. Still, this is about the coldest time of the year. Just going to let this sit for a week, and try to clear out the earlier threats of the 16th, 18th-20th and whatever suddenly shows up; and then see if the Ohio Valley storm system actually occurs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 12 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's been boring but not mild. Slightly above normal, yes, but not mild. Had highs in the mid 30's this weekend. Right now 26. You area has been warm rather than mild. POU is +5.1 through the 10th. The departures are being driven by the warm minimums. POU is +2.3 for the average daily max departure and a whopping +7.8 for the minimums. NYC is +3.6 with a +2.7 max and a +4.5 min departure. BTV is even more extreme at +6.8. They are +2.9 on the max and a +10.7 on the minimum. The more impressive warm departures have been the further north you go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Guess we'll have to wait until February for our big one storm. That’s more often than not when we get them, regardless of the year. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 It’s ironic that we may get our first -EPO drop since mid-December as the PNA is turning negative just after the 20th. This can often happen as the ridge pulls back to Aleutians and higher heights extend toward Alaska. So it looks like the PNA drop which the models had originally forecast near the start of February is moving up by 6-10 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s ironic that we may get our first -EPO drop since mid-December as the PNA is turning negative just after the 20th. This can often happen as the ridge pulls back to Aleutians and higher heights extend toward Alaska. So it looks like the PNA drop which the models had originally forecast near the start of February is moving up by 6-10 days. It moved up by quite a bit. We go RNA, trough dumped into the west by 1/21 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 42° The dry weather will continue through mid-week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 32 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It moved up by quite a bit. We go RNA, trough dumped into the west by 1/21 now We will be fine with a negative epo but we need moisture . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Every model is northern strewn dominant. Hopefully we get a nice bombing clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We will be fine with a negative epo but we need moisture . With a trough dumped into the west with the RNA you are going to get cutters. Better hope the -NAO doesn’t go away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: With a trough dumped into the west with the RNA you are going to get cutters. Better hope the -NAO doesn’t go away Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now