January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

do you have a chart of the number of days between each one of NYC;s 10 inch or greater snowfalls ?

NYC generally needs a cold winter to get more than 1 event of 10” or more in a single season. The last time this happened was during the cold winters of 13-14, 10-11, 09-10, and 03-04. But one of these days, NYC will eventually get 2 events in a mild winter.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/sixplussnow.pdf

12-17-20...10.5

1-24-16.....27.5

2-13-14....12.5

1-22-14....11.5

2-8-13......11.4

1-26-11.....19.0

12-26-10....20.0

2-25-10.....20.9

2-10-10......10.0

12-20-09.....10.9

2-12-06......26.9

1-22-05.......13.8

1-28-04.......10.3

12-5-03.........14.0

2-17-03.......19.8

12-30-00......12.0

 

 

 

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

do you have a chart of the number of days between each one of NYC;s 10 inch or greater snowfalls ?

 

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

do you have a chart of the number of days between each one of NYC;s 10 inch or greater snowfalls ?

snowfalls 10" or greater......
Year....date....amount"...
1872...12/26.......18.0"

1874...12/20.......10.0"
1875...4/13.........10.0"
1876...2/3-4........11.0"
1877...1/1-2........13.0"
1879...1/15-16....13.0"

1888...3/12-14....21.0"

1896...3/2...........10.0"
1896...3/15-16....12.0"
1897...1/27-28....10.0"
1898...11/26-27..10.0"
1899...2/12-14....16.0"

1902...2/17..........10.0"
1905...1/24-25.....11.0"
1907...2/4-5.........11.0"
1908...1/23-24.....10.0"

1910...1/14-15.....10.0"
1912...12/24........11.4"
1914...3/1-2.........14.5"
1915...4/3-4.........10.2"
1916...12/15........12.7"

1920...2/4-7.........17.5"
1921...2/20..........12.5"
1925...1/2............11.5"
1926...2/3-4.........10.4"
1926...2/9-10.......12.0"

1933...2/11..........10.0"
1933...12/26........11.2"
1935...1/23-24.....13.0"

1941...3/7-8.........18.1"
1947...2/20-21.....10.7"
1947...12/26-27...26.4"
1948...12/19-20...16.0"

1956...3/18-19.....11.6"
1958...3/20-21.....11.8"
1959...12/21-22...13.7"

1960...3/3-4.........14.5"
1960...12/11-12...15.2"
1961...2/3-4.........17.4"
1964...1/12-13.....12.5"
1967...2/7............12.5"
1969...2/9-10.......15.3"

1978...1/19-20.....13.6"
1978...2/6-7.........17.7"
1979...2/19..........12.7"

1983...2/11-12.....17.6"

1993...3/13-14.....10.6"
1994...2/11..........12.8"
1995...2/4............10.8"
1996...1/7-8.........20.2"
1996...2/16-17.....10.7"

2000...12/30........12.0"
2003...2/16-17.....19.8"
2003...12/5-6.......14.0"
2004...1/28..........10.4"
2005...1/22-23.....13.8"
2006...2/11-12.....26.9"
2009...12/19-20...10.9"

2010...2/9-10.......10.0"
2010...2/25-26.....20.9"
2010...12/26-27...20.0"
2011...1/25-26.....19.0"
2013...2/8-9.........11.4"

2014...1/21..........11.5"

2016...1/23-24.....27.5"

2020...12/16-17...10.5"

1870's...6
1880's...1
1890's...5
1900's...4
1910's...5
1920's...5
1930's...3
1940's...4
1950's...3
1960's...6
1970's...3
1980's...1
1990's...5
2000's...7
2010's...7

2020's...1

[NEG NAO]

33 minutes ago, uncle W said:

 

snowfalls 10" or greater......
Year....date....amount"...
1872...12/26.......18.0"

1874...12/20.......10.0"
1875...4/13.........10.0"
1876...2/3-4........11.0"
1877...1/1-2........13.0"
1879...1/15-16....13.0"

1888...3/12-14....21.0"

1896...3/2...........10.0"
1896...3/15-16....12.0"
1897...1/27-28....10.0"
1898...11/26-27..10.0"
1899...2/12-14....16.0"

1902...2/17..........10.0"
1905...1/24-25.....11.0"
1907...2/4-5.........11.0"
1908...1/23-24.....10.0"

1910...1/14-15.....10.0"
1912...12/24........11.4"
1914...3/1-2.........14.5"
1915...4/3-4.........10.2"
1916...12/15........12.7"

1920...2/4-7.........17.5"
1921...2/20..........12.5"
1925...1/2............11.5"
1926...2/3-4.........10.4"
1926...2/9-10.......12.0"

1933...2/11..........10.0"
1933...12/26........11.2"
1935...1/23-24.....13.0"

1941...3/7-8.........18.1"
1947...2/20-21.....10.7"
1947...12/26-27...26.4"
1948...12/19-20...16.0"

1956...3/18-19.....11.6"
1958...3/20-21.....11.8"
1959...12/21-22...13.7"

1960...3/3-4.........14.5"
1960...12/11-12...15.2"
1961...2/3-4.........17.4"
1964...1/12-13.....12.5"
1967...2/7............12.5"
1969...2/9-10.......15.3"

1978...1/19-20.....13.6"
1978...2/6-7.........17.7"
1979...2/19..........12.7"

1983...2/11-12.....17.6"

1993...3/13-14.....10.6"
1994...2/11..........12.8"
1995...2/4............10.8"
1996...1/7-8.........20.2"
1996...2/16-17.....10.7"

2000...12/30........12.0"
2003...2/16-17.....19.8"
2003...12/5-6.......14.0"
2004...1/28..........10.4"
2005...1/22-23.....13.8"
2006...2/11-12.....26.9"
2009...12/19-20...10.9"

2010...2/9-10.......10.0"
2010...2/25-26.....20.9"
2010...12/26-27...20.0"
2011...1/25-26.....19.0"
2013...2/8-9.........11.4"

2014...1/21..........11.5"

2016...1/23-24.....27.5"

2020...12/16-17...10.5"

1870's...6
1880's...1
1890's...5
1900's...4
1910's...5
1920's...5
1930's...3
1940's...4
1950's...3
1960's...6
1970's...3
1980's...1
1990's...5
2000's...7
2010's...7

2020's...1

Thanks Uncle W  - only about 9 seasons since 1872 have featured more then one snowfall 10 inches or more in NYC 

[NEG NAO]

exciting week ahead

[North and West]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

exciting week ahead

C’est la vie, said the old folks, it goes to show you never can tell.

[gravitylover]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

C’est la vie, said the old folks, it goes to show you never can tell.

Ha! Well done. I dont know that I've ever seen anyone use that song in conversation before.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

exciting week ahead.

That firehose Pacific Jet won’t be denied. The combo of that Jet and the south based block is suppressing the southern stream. So all the precip is PAC NW and SE.

 

[Brian5671]

Blocking is too far south so we get dry dry dry.    We were due for some dryness...the period b/w Thanksgiving and Xmas was incredibly wet.

[Franklin0529]

Some pattern. Still no signs of snow in the next 2 weeks. That brings us till atleast the 20th. Quickly running out of time

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Some pattern. Still no signs of snow in the next 2 weeks. That brings us till atleast the 20th. Quickly running out of time

Would be perfect if we were about 25 degrees warmer 

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Some pattern. Still no signs of snow in the next 2 weeks. That brings us till atleast the 20th. Quickly running out of time

You can't be serious

[the_other_guy]

Look, at least it is somewhat cold. 40 day, 25 night.  

We have had a lot worse in terms of January.

It will snow this month. And it looks like a good chunk of it will be coldish (slightly above normal but still feel like January)

I’ll take it

[JustinRP37]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You can't be serious

Can't blame him for being frustrated. It is January 8th and after Sunday my highs will be in the 40s and increasing over the next week. Most ski areas are still not even close to 100% open. Winter clock is ticking. Now sure a big snowstorm can and still is likely to happen, but I say this each year, I enjoy snow sports not just snow storms. I got a few good days of playing in the snow with my son, but it is still winter and even lakes aren't freezing. Might not even be able to get our annual VT trip in with all the restrictions. 

[winterwx21]

After the strong cold front comes through next friday, GFS is showing pretty much constant cold temps the rest of the run. If we get a long period of cold temps in mid to late January, odds are high that we'll get snow at some point. Even if it's just a couple of lighter snow events. The important thing is to get the cold in here for an extended period of time to set the stage, and that appears to be on the way. Way too early to worry about the guidance not showing snow threats. Odds are the guidance will pick up on something when we get closer to the cold pattern. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

C’est la vie, said the old folks, it goes to show you never can tell.

It’s always a risk with a suppressed pattern. Honestly happy it won’t be super cold if it’s dry 

[Franklin0529]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You can't be serious

Oh I'm dead serious.  U keep believing storms are 10 days away.  This will bring us past middle of January.  An its looking like February is a lost cause.  How can anyone be optimistic.  It's the storm after the storm after the one after that 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Oh I'm dead serious.  U keep believing storms are 10 days away.  This will bring us past middle of January.  An its looking like February is a lost cause.  How can anyone be optimistic.  It's the storm after the storm after the one after that 

Because you can’t trust that just because models show nothing for 10 days means nothing will pop up 

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Because you can’t trust that just because models show nothing for 10 days means nothing will pop up 

But everyone will believe when it shows a storm lol

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Oh I'm dead serious.  U keep believing storms are 10 days away.  This will bring us past middle of January.  An its looking like February is a lost cause.  How can anyone be optimistic.  It's the storm after the storm after the one after that 

What is today's  date ? Are you reading what others are posting?

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What is today's  date ? Are you reading what others are posting?

people can post all they want that doesn't make them right....

[Dan76]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What is today's  date ? Are you reading what others are posting?

Didn't you say this last year?

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Didn't you say this last year?

it's literally the same routine every winter around here....

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Didn't you say this last year?

Say what ? Every friggin winter you and Brian love trolling.  Its getting annoying and tiring. 

Everyone busted last season. No one thought it was going to be a bad winter. We now have a ssw event unfolding with the models bringing very cold air in the middle of the month.

The coast has more snow than we had all last winter and its only early January.

Many people are on board with a favorable pattern starting next week. How long will it last ? That's the big question but it should get colder. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's literally the same routine every winter around here....

Dude you have to be biggest troll ever

You just ignore what Allsnow and others are saying about the pattern going forward.  Isotherm  and earthlight are on board for a favorable pattern starting next week.

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

people can post all they want that doesn't make them right....

So cancel winter on jan 8 is a wise one ?

[bluewave]

Models are correcting  more positive with the EPO for later in the month. This is telling us that the models continue to underestimate the strength of the Pacific Jet. That’s why the EPS are warmer than the GEFS during week 2.

 

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dude you have to be biggest troll ever

You just ignore what Allsnow and others are saying about the pattern going forward.  Isotherm  and earthlight are on board for a favorable pattern starting next week.

Like I said, maybe they are right maybe they are not.  It's a discussion about a pattern not the final answer which no one knows.  You get all upset when someone posts an opposing point of view-for example your post on the La Nina weakening when it clearly is not.   We live at 40N not Caribou Maine.    What looked like a longer lasting decent pattern is shrinking....Euro has zero precip here (not even rain for another week)  I'm sure we'll get something this month but it may (or may not be) the bigger pattern that delivers multiple storms

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

So cancel winter on jan 8 is a wise one ?

show me where anyone is canceling winter?

[pstar3182]

There's been a cancel button this whole time? 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Blocking is too far south so we get dry dry dry.    We were due for some dryness...the period b/w Thanksgiving and Xmas was incredibly wet.

Yeah but that didn't get me close to avg for the year. I'm concerned that if we don't bank some precip over the next two months we'll see wells running dry early this year. We need 3-4 feet of snow to do a slow soak into the ground to help alleviate the problem. That said, I don't think we're going to see that happen.