January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Nibor]

Euro also showing a storm for the 12th-13th

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Largely a consequence of warming winters and the too brief -EPO intervals for sustained cold. Our last 2 cold winters were 13-14 and 14-15. But we needed record breaking -EPO+PNA blocks to pull it off. All our -EPO winter blocking periods since 16-17 have been shorter and eventually pulled back to the Aleutians after a period of time. So those Aleutian pullbacks didn’t allow the cold to lock in for extended periods of time .But the good news is a that a little -EPO can go along way with a +PNA -AO assist to produce snowfall. My guess is that we get our next -EPO interval in mid to late January. That’s when we will have a shot at significant snows. Notice how our last period of cold and significant snow in mid-December  happened a few days after the only -EPO drop of the whole month. The ridge building over the Pole briefly dropped the EPO and created the favorable pattern for the snow.
 

Mid-December -EPO for snow and cold

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

2020 12 01   57.33
2020 12 02  -20.52
2020 12 03    1.92
2020 12 04   -3.55
2020 12 05   18.98
2020 12 06  113.53
2020 12 07  160.49
2020 12 08   91.29
2020 12 09   24.46
2020 12 10  -40.49
2020 12 11  -98.53
2020 12 12  -90.08
2020 12 13  -32.48
2020 12 14  -11.99
2020 12 15   48.80
2020 12 16  122.15
2020 12 17  153.25
2020 12 18  199.37
2020 12 19  250.26
2020 12 20  239.82
2020 12 21  120.24
2020 12 22   70.85
2020 12 23   58.12
2020 12 24   69.31
2020 12 25   92.27
2020 12 26   68.14
2020 12 27    3.10
2020 12 28   -1.63
2020 12 29   11.33
2020 12 30   61.32
2020 12 31   60.59
2021 01 01  127.22
2021 01 02  264.17
2021 01 03  296.05

This was something I was thinking about.  I'm sure you've also noticed the drastic reduction in number of single digit and below zero low days.  When was the last time JFK went below 0.....1994?

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 36degs.(32/41).          Making it 31degs., or -2.0.

EURO/CMC back with 7"(each) on the 13th.     GFS needs a snow machine----it is Zippo throughout.        Even the T drop is slipping forward and becoming more muted.        PV Spilts are not as good as stretches and reorientations for NA.       Now the talk is of wanting the atmosphere to behave contrary to its canonical  typing in order to be able to poster talk of snow etc.       Gonna take a fluke---as the models take a flop.

GEFS Extended gives us one week to work with----Jan. 21-28----which averages just Normal.

32*(65%RH) here at 6am.        37* by Noon.        41* by 2pm.        36* by 7pm.

[wdrag]

Greeting's this Thursday morning, Jan 7. 

 

I do not plan to start a topic for the 12th-13th, until the 12z/7 cycle guidance shows the GFS fully joining and hopefully consistent 00z-12z/7 EC-GGEM operational for an event. If I have to wait til tomorrow morning or beyond for this agreement, I will. I just do not want another 8th-9th miss for our forum and that one I thought was a good topic, that presumably will end up too far southeast - a miss. 

 

Here's what I've posted for a FB group of non - weather friends who just want an idea of if a hazard is coming. 

 

 

Baltimore to Boston along and NORTHWEST of I95 and inclusive of the entire I84 corridor (not Adirondacks) Tuesday the 12th ending Wednesday morning the 13th. Potential for at least several inches of snow which may change to rain for a time along I95?? This event is not guaranteed yet.  I think we'll know much more with tomorrow morning's post. 

 

Friday-Saturday the 15th-16th: I84 corridor...a possible snow event?

 

Best I can do through the 06z/7 operationals and ensembles. 

 

One note: The challenge continues on GGEM... I see some just don't think much of the GGEM.  I can only say: if the GGEM doesn't have you big, it won't be.  So far, this season nothing has changed.  It's a good model, one that I know some of our NWS friends in the northeast USA look to for decision making.  This perception on my part dates back to at least the early 2000's.   

 

Let's make this a good day and hope this pattern becomes productive for us up here in the northeast. 

 

 

[Dan76]

???? Looks like nothing WRT next week

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see the new EPS weeklies later. The latest GEFS weeklies have  a pretty fast retrogression of the ridge back to the Aleutians by late January. This would allow a more La Niña-like -PNA to emerge by later in January into February. So hopefully we can maximize our snowfall potential after January 10th before a possible shift later on.

 

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

it’s 32 degrees and sunny on the cross Bronx this morning!

I heard there's a 90 minute delay over there.  

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 45°

Mainly fair and somewhat milder than normal temperatures will prevail through much of the week.

[HVSnowLover]

Not following super closely but If both cmc/euro on board at 0z I am thinking a storm coming on the 13th is more possible now 

[HeadInTheClouds]

13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not following super closely but If both cmc/euro on board at 0z I am thinking a storm coming on the 13th is more possible now 

Yes. I have said if the cmc starts to show something in addition to euro then it's game on. The GFS will likely play catch up in a day or 2 like it always does. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see the new EPS weeklies later. The latest GEFS weeklies have  a pretty fast retrogression of the ridge back to the Aleutians by late January. This would allow a more La Niña-like -PNA to emerge by later in January into February. So hopefully we can maximize our snowfall potential after January 10th before a possible shift later on.

 

Isotherm thinks the shift to canonical Niña at the end of this month and February is real. It would fit Niña climo

[NEG NAO]

I would use the supposed "best " models the EURO and and EPS for now for next weeks event and then the other  ones especially the Canadian and put less weight on the GFS and its sidekick the GFSv16 I would also just concentrate for now on the most important ingredients in this storm the track and the 850s . In this situation the track is key since the cold enough 850s settle in here after this weekends storm passes - always like to have that fresh injection of cold enough air before the storm arrives which signals that other important ingredient high pressure in southern Canada

[wdrag]

20 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not following super closely but If both cmc/euro on board at 0z I am thinking a storm coming on the 13th is more possible now 

Yep...  hopefully this continues with the 12z/7 cycle, but if evidence of sewd shift in the 12z/7 cycle, then more reason to wait. And I'd like at a minimum,  the 12z/7  NAEFS to be more emphatic and the 12z/7  GFSv16 to bring it up here.  V16?  Cause that's the GFS op of the future... if it's not on board in advance of the GFS V15 op and the event occurs, then more fuel for my doubts.  I am just not qualitatively seeing any indication of GFS16 BL physics (rain/snow) improvement here in our small corner of the world. 

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not following super closely but If both cmc/euro on board at 0z I am thinking a storm coming on the 13th is more possible now 

We need to score in the next 3 weeks IMO. Think we have a good shot too, especially after 1/16 or so. I think the pattern becomes hostile at the tail end of this month and February

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

I heard there's a 90 minute delay over there.  

If only he posted that slight earlier and got this warning haha. Is that because if the water main break? 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We need to score in the next 3 weeks IMO. Think we have a good shot too, especially after 1/16 or so. I think the pattern becomes hostile at the tail end of this month and February

Typical but if blocking holds on then we will be good.

[Allsnow]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We need to score in the next 3 weeks IMO. Think we have a good shot too, especially after 1/16 or so. I think the pattern becomes hostile at the tail end of this month and February

Agree.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see the new EPS weeklies later. The latest GEFS weeklies have  a pretty fast retrogression of the ridge back to the Aleutians by late January. This would allow a more La Niña-like -PNA to emerge by later in January into February. So hopefully we can maximize our snowfall potential after January 10th before a possible shift later on.

 

In another thread they mentioned another SSWE is likely to occur. Probably would put us in where we are now with blocking and Pacific air.

[HVSnowLover]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We need to score in the next 3 weeks IMO. Think we have a good shot too, especially after 1/16 or so. I think the pattern becomes hostile at the tail end of this month and February

Only need a few storms or 1 big storm to get nyc to average for the winter by the end of January. 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agree.

I think we have a great shot at an average snowfall year. We scored big in December, and if this 3 week period produces a few hits (say 1 6 to 12, 1 3 to 6 and 1 1 to 3) we should be good. 

March is ALWAYS a wildcard no matter the enso. So many great years like 13/14 with a March shutout or bad years like 18/19 or 91/92 with great Marches.

I will say this - if we do not reach average snowfall this year with the December we had as well as the blocking, it would be the most disappointing year I can remember.

[Edubbs83]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

NYC has already had 10.5 inches this season and to still be at least normal for the season on January 31 they only need 1 light to moderate event of a few inches....if they can't get at least that in the next 24 days something is wrong

I think he meant normal for the winter close to 30” by end of Jan 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

I would use the supposed "best " models the EURO and and EPS for now for next weeks event and then the other  ones especially the Canadian and put less weight on the GFS and its sidekick the GFSv16 I would also just concentrate for now on the most important ingredients in this storm the track and the 850s . In this situation the track is key since the cold enough 850s settle in here after this weekends storm passes - always like to have that fresh injection of cold enough air before the storm arrives which signals that other important ingredient high pressure in southern Canada

Excellent approach... I just have to give weight to the GFS contributing.  One reason, I sense the media like this model... It certainly competes and I'm not quite as gungho on EC/GFS stand alone as probably many in the community.  Trying to use the best of what's offered and make a realistic guess at the future.  I've also checked CPC, and haven't quite understood why their 6- ~20 day outlooks are normal or below on qpf along the east coast.  I cant find access to previous 6-10 outlooks of the past several days but they were dry along the east coast, for some reason?  So i keep that in mind but think overall,  3-5 > 0.10 qpf opportunities coming the next two weeks starting Monday the 11th...whether they produce what we prefer??

[HVSnowLover]

42 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said:

I think he meant normal for the winter close to 30” by end of Jan 

Yes that’s what I meant 

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, Torch said:

No, last year WAY more disappointing.

I mean in a sense of expectations. Last year we once we hit the end of December the guidance showed garbage. This year guidance had blocking SSW bug early season snowstorm etc 

[wdrag]

And just like that, it's gone from the op 12z/7 GGEM. Certainly no topic action on my part today. GFSv15,16. ICON and GGEM all south.  Cant go with an EC alone and have no confidence in UK beyond 3 days. Will rereview with multiple ensembles this afternoon but i cant confidently topic this event for the NYC forum til sometime tomorrow at the earliest. Patience needed.  I think we need to accept the smaller events as much more probable than any big I95 snowstorm. Also,  its may be that our big ones for near the coast, occur when there is a large transition in NAO and PNA  Can be either + or - LARGE change...

When the oscillation is stable - or +, we might not get as many big storms. I do remember H. Archambault ne snowstorms paper talking about 3 successive short waves changing the oscillation to negative and as I recall, it was the third that nailed us in the northeast.  These are infrequent dreams.

I think the oscillation transitions require big jet stream adjustments, possibly helpful for a big storm here in the northeast?  

Finally,  if we cant even get a couple 1-3"rs the next two weeks, then let's blast some cold air down here and get the front end thump snow ending as a bit of junky rain...at least we will marvel at dendrites for a few hours.  

Right now, it's car wash weather up here to get rid of the salty dirty look to our vehicles. Media could be right with their subtle pronouncement midday yesterday (based on the GFS) that it's basically quiet for at least another week or so?  

Myself, the best snowstorms around here  in the northeast are northern-southern stream phasers and i don't see any hope for that til at least the 15th. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

In another thread they mentioned another SSWE is likely to occur. Probably would put us in where we are now with blocking and Pacific air.

I would not be surprised if this is just a repeat of the weeklies from the last 2 winters.  They want to keep bringing in the ENSO pattern and it never will happen

[CIK62]

12Z GFS has a hole in our head: (and the surgery that saved our lives)        Look----the problem is not lack of snow.       There is no precipitation.        10x0.30" would be just 3" anyway.

Emphasis should be on the potential T's between Jan. 20 and maybe Feb.08.        There are sub-zero members on the GFS Extended throughout that period!

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

And just like that, it's gone from the op 12z/7 GGEM. Certainly no topic action on my part today. GFSv15,16. ICON and GGEM all south.  Cant go with an EC alone and have no confidence in UK beyond 3 days. Will rereview with multiple ensembles this afternoon but i cant confidently topic this event for the NYC forum til sometime tomorrow at the earliest. Patience needed.  I think we need to accept the smaller events as much more probable than any big I95 snowstorm. Also,  its may be that our big ones for near the coast, occur when there is a large transition in NAO and PNA  Can be either + or - LARGE change...

When the oscillation is stable - or +, we might not get as many big storms. I do remember H. Archambault ne snowstorms paper talking about 3 successive short waves changing the oscillation to negative and as I recall, it was the third that nailed us in the northeast.  These are infrequent dreams.

I think the oscillation transitions require big jet stream adjustments, possibly helpful for a big storm here in the northeast?  

Finally,  if we cant even get a couple 1-3"rs the next two weeks, then let's blast some cold air down here and get the front end thump snow ending as a bit of junky rain...at least we will marvel at dendrites for a few hours.  

Right now, it's car wash weather up here to get rid of the salty dirty look to our vehicles. Media could be right with their subtle pronouncement midday yesterday (based on the GFS) that it's basically quiet for at least another week or so?  

Myself, the best snowstorms around here  in the northeast are northern-southern stream phasers and i don't see any hope for that til at least the 15th. 

Agree. It’s probably going to be post 1/16 for any real snow threats

[NEG NAO]

Euro way south and east its amazing how much many of the models have been in agreement recently..........

[MJO812]

Where the hell is this good pattern that people promised me ? The models keep pushing it back.