January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If that happens it's lights out here for winter-that's a torch.

That’s far enough away that there remain alternative scenarios. The ongoing stratospheric warming event provides additional long-range uncertainty.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

If that happens it's lights out here for winter-that's a torch.

That's way too far out

[EastonSN+]

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s far enough away that there remain alternative scenarios. The ongoing stratospheric warming event provides additional long-range uncertainty.

Thanks Don,

I think it was Allsnow who showed evidence that the weeklies automatically default to a Nina base state weeks 5 and 6. Basically showed that look weeks 5 and 6 for weeks never to materialize. I know this is too far out to speculate, however would a reshuffle to the recent December look be as likely as a reshuffle to a Nina base state? I never really understood why Nina's have cold Decembers.

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don,

I think it was Allsnow who showed evidence that the weeklies automatically default to a Nina base state weeks 5 and 6. Basically showed that look weeks 5 and 6 for weeks never to materialize. I know this is too far out to speculate, however would a reshuffle to the recent December look be as likely as a reshuffle to a Nina base state? I never really understood why Nina's have cold Decembers.

They seem to migrate to the base state, no matter what the year, usually starting week 3.  The fact that it waited to week 5 this past run was different than the normal, haha.  Last year they constantly had us cold week 3/4+.  

[Isotherm]

Mid-winter checkpoint w/ my updated thoughts here:

Winter progressing in accordance w/ outlook thus far. Everything remains on track w/ respect to colder and more active January; most conducive multi-week period forthcoming. 

 

[donsutherland1]

51 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don,

I think it was Allsnow who showed evidence that the weeklies automatically default to a Nina base state weeks 5 and 6. Basically showed that look weeks 5 and 6 for weeks never to materialize. I know this is too far out to speculate, however would a reshuffle to the recent December look be as likely as a reshuffle to a Nina base state? I never really understood why Nina's have cold Decembers.

Perhaps the recent short-term strengthening of the La Nina has contributed to this modeled outcome this time around. A gradual weakening remains far more likely than a collapse.

The canonical La Nina evolution has a lot to do with the tropical forcing. But there are numerous pieces that could impact the outcome this time around, including but not limited to the evolving stratospheric warming event.

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, FPizz said:

They seem to migrate to the base state, no matter what the year, usually starting week 3.  The fact that it waited to week 5 this past run was different than the normal, haha.  Last year they constantly had us cold week 3/4+.  

It may be that the record off equator North Pacific warmth allowed a more Niño-like pattern to dominate since December. But this off equator North Pacific warm has steadily declined in recent weeks. So it’s possible that a more La Niña-like pattern finally emerges in February. 
 

 

 

[crossbowftw3]

Well, while this weekend’s threat is pretty much gone now; next week is starting to look pretty interesting at this point. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Well, while this weekend’s threat is pretty much gone now; next week is starting to look pretty interesting at this point. 

Yep gfs is looking interesting along with the Para and gefs

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It may be that the record off equator North Pacific warmth allowed a more Niño-like pattern to dominate since December. But this off equator North Pacific warm has steadily declined in recent weeks. So it’s possible that a more La Niña-like pattern finally emerges in February. 
 

 

 

That would fit the classic La Niña “playbook” perfectly. Usually the canonical Niña pattern establishes itself at the end of January/beginning of February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That would fit the classic La Niña “playbook” perfectly. Usually the canonical Niña pattern establishes itself at the end of January/beginning of February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent 

I can still remember how surprised everyone was when the La Niña pattern showed up in February 2011. We could have surpassed 95-96 if that pattern didn’t reverse. That’s why I am always cautious when dealing with La Ninas in February.

[Eduardo]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can still remember how surprised everyone was when the La Niña pattern showed up in February 2011. We could have surpassed 95-96 if that pattern didn’t reverse. That’s why I am always cautious when dealing with La Ninas in February.

Why didn't a La Niña pattern appear in 1996?

 

The SSW continues to be the wildcard, but given how they seldom benefit our side of the globe, my money is on a mild, boring February.  I think we will have our chances to cash in big time before then (and hope that I'm wrong about what comes after).

[MJO812]

Serious cold comes down on the gfs in mid to long range

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

Why didn't a La Niña pattern appear in 1996?

 

The SSW continues to be the wildcard, but given how they seldom benefit our side of the globe, my money is on a mild, boring February.  I think we will have our chances to cash in big time before then (and hope that I'm wrong about what comes after).

95-96 was a weak Nina.  10-11 was fairly strong

[EastonSN+]

Curious to know what the upper Pacific SSTs looked like in 2011.

Also we had 2 accumulating snowfalls past January. 2.5 before changing to a lot of rain and 4.5 before changing to ice.

7 inches after going into NINA mode in 2011 is hardly a shut out. If we can get a couple heavy snowstorms before NINA flip then mimick Feb March 2011 we will be in great shape considering the storm we had in December 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Curious to know what the upper Pacific SSTs looked like in 2011.

Also we had 2 accumulating snowfalls past January. 2.5 before changing to a lot of rain and 4.5 before changing to ice.

7 inches after going into NINA mode in 2011 is hardly a shut out. If we can get a couple heavy snowstorms before NINA flip then mimick Feb March 2011 we will be in great shape considering the storm we had in December 

Stating  that we could see a La Niña-like pattern in February means that the ridge could pull  back to the Aleutians and the PNA falls. It doesn’t speak to what type of snowfall opportunities that we will see. There also isn’t much correlation between the strength of the La Niña and this February pattern. For example, 16-17 featured one of the weakest La Ninas during February. But it had near record warmth with a memorable blizzard. February 2011 had a much stronger La Niña with the PNA drop. But it was cooler than 16-17 with less snow. So specific temperatures and snowfall can be quite variable within a February La Niña pattern should it arise this year.

[SnowGoose69]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like they want to pop a big Aleutian ridge at the end of this month. Whether or not that actually happens is the big question since we are talking almost 4 weeks away.... 

Its probably 2 weeks too fast with it.  My hunch is this pattern will go til 2/1-2/5 before there is any chance of a flip

[BxEngine]

No warnings, next political post is an instaban. You gotta be ****ing kidding me.

[MJO812]

Para is lovely for next week. A few inches for the coast and more inland.

[Wannabehippie]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Para is lovely for next week. A few inches for the coast and more inland.

Too bad the GFS para is real shitty.

 

[Franklin0529]

13 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Too bad the GFS para is real shitty.

 

Been better than the regular gfs

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Been better than the regular gfs

Yes and no.  Its had trouble resolving the blocking pattern and pattern shift about the same...it does not have ensembles so I could not see those but its Op runs were pretty regularly trying to crank southeast ridging and cutting storms 7-10 days ago and look where we are now.  Its still occasionally trying to do it.  Its best improvement is it has less of a near term cold bias it seems.

[sussexcountyobs]

10 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

If that happens it's lights out here for winter-that's a torch.

Is the the first winter is canceled post? You knew it was coming. LOL

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Is the the first winter is canceled post? You knew it was coming. LOL

Nah, that started a month ago by some and somehow I have 19 inches to this point. 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Nah, that started a month ago by some and somehow I have 19 inches to this point. 

LOL. Me to. I have a little over 17".

[Franklin0529]

13 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

LOL. Me to. I have a little over 17".

2" down here 

[donsutherland1]

A relatively quiet weather pattern remains in place. Through Friday, partly sunny and somewhat milder than normal conditions will likely prevail.

The likely continuation of Arctic blocking through at least January 15 would typically provide a higher than climatological probability for above normal snowfall. Ideally, an expansive block would be anchored across the Baffin Bay or Greenland, not south of the Davis Strait.

Blocks that are anchored near Newfoundland and Labrador can inhibit opportunities for snowfall and result in warmer to much warmer than normal conditions in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. This is now the most likely scenario for much of the first half of January. Under this scenario, the first 10-15 days of January will likely be generally warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada. After January 10, the EPS continues to shows a transition during which a trough will move into the East. The operational ECMWF has persistently shown an opportunity for snowfall during or near the end of the transitional period.

Arctic air will likely shift mainly to Eurasia. However, the evolving pattern could be sufficiently cold to afford opportunities for snowfall if the pattern evolves as currently shown on the EPS. It remains possible that the pattern evolution could lead to a multiweek period with higher than climatological potential for snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +26.62 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.510. That is the lowest AO figure since November 26, 2018 when the AO was -3.629.

On January 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.048 (RMM). The January 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.908.

A significant stratospheric warming event is continuing to evolve. The temperature has now peaked at 1 mb, but was still rising at 10 mb and 30 mb. Temperatures at those levels of the stratosphere should peak and begin falling in coming days. The mean zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. They could reverse 30 mb. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will likely split. The dominant piece will, as is typical with such events, migrate to Eurasia.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January.

 

[wishcast_hater]

1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said:

LOL. Me to. I have a little over 17".

While I had about 17” so far this season it’s hard to break the back of the crappy pattern we are in. Bring on cold and snow. Hate boring mild winters. 

[eduggs]

The CMC shows a major hit for the 13th. Doesn't mean a ton, but it's nice to see a wintry solution. Fairly strong low and long duration. Nice phase on that run.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The CMC shows a major hit for the 13th. Doesn't mean a ton, but it's nice to see a wintry solution. Fairly strong low and long duration. Nice phase on that run.

I was waiting for the CMC to have one of its classic overamped rogue runs....there it is lol