January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[EasternLI]

That's a solid winter pattern on the eps in the 10-15 day. 2nd half of the month looking very interesting. This is a 5 day mean. 

[Rtd208]

Snow/sleet falling.
Temp has fallen back to 34

[bluewave]

Need to see some lows in the 20s showing up in NYC for more significant snowfall potential. This first week may join the list of years that didn’t fall below 30°. Something closer to the average low of 27° during the 2nd week of the month could allow for snow potential with the right storm track and evolution. Mid 20s lows before or during a storm can signal enough cold air nearby with the right storm details. This is generally what we look for in a mild pattern.

 

...New York City...
   Central Park, NY

     /38    34/44    34/42    34/43    31/43    
      

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 7	Missing Count
1	2007-01-07	38	0
-	1907-01-07	38	0
2	2005-01-07	34	0
3	2021-01-07	33	5
-	1966-01-07	33	0
-	1932-01-07	33	0
-	1889-01-07	33	0
4	2020-01-07	32	0
-	1874-01-07	32	0
5	1950-01-07	31	0
-	1880-01-07	31	0
6	1939-01-07	30	0
-	1913-01-07	30	0
-	1906-01-07	30	0

 

 

[donsutherland1]

A developing storm was bringing rain and snow to parts of the region this evening. Tomorrow will be drier, milder, with partly sunny skies.

The likely continuation of Arctic blocking through at least the first 10 days of January would typically provide a higher than climatological probability for above normal snowfall. Ideally, an expansive block would be anchored across the Baffin Bay or Greenland, not south of the Davis Strait.

Blocks that are anchored near Newfoundland and Labrador can inhibit opportunities for snowfall and result in warmer to much warmer than normal conditions in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. This is now the most likely scenario for much of the first half of January. Under this scenario, the first 10-15 days of January will likely be much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada. After January 10, the EPO continues to show a possible transition that could lead to a trough's moving into the East.

Arctic air will likely shift mainly to Eurasia. However, the evolving pattern could be sufficiently cold to afford opportunities for snowfall if the pattern evolves as currently shown on the EPS.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +23.42 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.437.

On January 2 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.691 (RMM). The January 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.640.

A significant stratospheric warming event is now in its early stages. The highest levels of the stratosphere will continue to warm through the first half of the first week of January. The mean zonal winds will likely reverse at 1 mb, 10 mb, and 30 mb making this a major warming event. Toward the end of the first week in January, the top layers of the stratosphere will likely begin to cool.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January.

 

[Rjay]

15 hours ago, EasternLI said:

That's a solid winter pattern on the eps in the 10-15 day. 2nd half of the month looking very interesting. This is a 5 day mean. 

If that pattern is real we're gonna be tossing weenies left and right

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 35degs.(32/40).        Making it 30degs., or -3.0.

Unfortunately the snow, and indeed the percipitation itself is gone.    Just the CMC has 5" on the 13th.       Musical Chairs and handoffs continue with these potential storms, 9th, 13th.,15th, 18th.     No real cold till the 20th.     Even that T drop is questionable.      We are going to be robbed.

37*(84%RH) here at 6am, overcast.    40* by 10am, clearing up.        42* at 11am.        43* at Noon.         44* briefly at 1pm.         42* at 2pm and cloudy.       40*%41* all evening.

[bluewave]

Continuation of the mild pattern that began around the solstice. NYC at +5.7 through the first 3 days of January.  NYC will remain well above the 33° average for early January. Maybe we can eventually see some upper 20s lows by later next weekend. But the average low is 27°.

New York City...
   Central Park, NY

     /42    37/41    33/42    31/43    31/40    30/40    29/40......climo 27/38/33
      

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Avg Temperature Departure
2020-12-21	5.7
2020-12-22	6.5
2020-12-23	5.3
2020-12-24	16.0
2020-12-25	10.2
2020-12-26	-6.5
2020-12-27	-3.8
2020-12-28	8.4
2020-12-29	2.6
2020-12-30	1.8
2020-12-31	8.4
2021-01-01	3.1
2021-01-02	10.2
2021-01-03	2.9

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and milder than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 42°

Newark: 44°

Philadelphia: 44°

Mainly fair and somewhat milder than normal temperatures will prevail through much of the week.

[bluewave]

The EPS is confirming in the week 2 period that the SPV and coldest temperatures will shift over to Eurasia with the SSW. So we just need to work on getting it cold enough for snow with the right storm track. Maybe there could be some Arctic air by later in the month if heights build enough north of Alaska.

 

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is confirming in the week 2 period that the SPV and coldest temperatures will shift over to Eurasia with the SSW. So we just need to work on getting it cold enough for snow with the right storm track. Maybe there could be some Arctic air by later in the month if heights build enough north of Alaska.

 

Unfortunately, this is very consistent with splitting polar vortexes. A less cold but snowy pattern is still possible, though.

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, this is very consistent with splitting polar vortexes. A less cold but snowy pattern is still possible, though.

Yeah, sometimes just cold enough is all we need at the coast for snow with the right storm track and teleconnections. But it’s always nice to have at least some Arctic air nearby to enhance our chances for a higher end event. Even our recent milder snowy Januaries had intervals around storm time  with -10 Arctic air available. 

NYC

Jan 18.....-0.9

2018-01-01	19	7	13.0	-20.4	52	0	0.00	0.0	T
2018-01-02	26	13	19.5	-13.8	45	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-01-03	30	16	23.0	-10.1	42	0	0.00	0.0	T
2018-01-04	29	19	24.0	-9.0	41	0	0.76	9.8	1

Jan 17.....+5.4

2017-01-06	33	25	29.0	-3.8	36	0	0.05	1.2	1
2017-01-07	26	20	23.0	-9.7	42	0	0.32	5.1	T
2017-01-08	25	16	20.5	-12.1	44	0	0.00	0.0	4
2017-01-09	23	14	18.5	-14.0	46	0	0.00	0.0	3

 

Jan 16....+1.9

2016-01-19	28	16	22.0	-10.3	43	0	0.00	0.0	T
2016-01-20	37	27	32.0	-0.3	33	0	0.00	0.0	T
2016-01-21	36	26	31.0	-1.3	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2016-01-22	30	21	25.5	-6.9	39	0	0.01	0.2	0
2016-01-23	27	24	25.5	-6.9	39	0	2.31	27.3	6

 

[qg_omega]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, this is very consistent with splitting polar vortexes. A less cold but snowy pattern is still possible, though.

We look to cool toward the weekend, may get some bleeding down of the cold over eastern Canada

[snowman19]

56 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, this is very consistent with splitting polar vortexes. A less cold but snowy pattern is still possible, though.

Yep this SSWE is benefitting Eurasia. This is why you don’t assume that every SSW turns the eastern seaboard into an arctic tundra. All the cold is dumping into the other side of the pole. Of course it can still snow with January climo, but the NAO and PNA are definitely going to have to cooperate as will storm tracks. Air masses are going to be marginal. It seems the EPO is going to be uncooperative for the foreseeable future

[Gravity Wave]

Three years ago today: the "bomb cyclone" drops 10" of snow in NYC with whiteout conditions in the late morning and early afternoon.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We look to cool toward the weekend, may get some bleeding down of the cold over eastern Canada

True, but nothing severely cold.

[EastonSN+]

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep this SSWE is benefitting Eurasia. This is why you don’t assume that every SSW turns the eastern seaboard into an arctic tundra. All the cold is dumping into the other side of the pole. Of course it can still snow with January climo, but the NAO and PNA are definitely going to have to cooperate as will storm tracks. Air masses are going to be marginal. It seems the EPO is going to be uncooperative for the foreseeable future

March 2018 same thing happened and we all had a historic month with the March sun angle and all.

We may be disappointed in the end but I would roll the dice with a March 2018 in January any day.

[CIK62]

Snow roundup from the 12Z:

Jan. 09       NONE    all models      The EURO has no 10-Day precipitation at all and is thus out of the game.

Jan. 13        7" on the GFS and 2" on the CMC

On the 16th and 19th. the GFS is close to something.

[White Gorilla]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

True, but nothing severely cold.

Severe cold would cause concerns for suppressed storm tracks, not necessarily, but more likely.  Just keep it climo cold and active and good snow chances will be there. 

[RedSky]

20 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Snow roundup from the 12Z:

Jan. 09       NONE    all models      The EURO has no 10-Day precipitation at all and is thus out of the game.

Jan. 13        7" on the GFS and 2" on the CMC

On the 16th and 19th. the GFS is close to something.

UKMET has a snowy Friday-Sat, but I can understand if you don't count crazy uncle.

 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

March 2018 same thing happened and we all had a historic month with the March sun angle and all.

We may be disappointed in the end but I would roll the dice with a March 2018 in January any day.

The March, 2018 SSW was not “the same thing” not even close. It was a completely different event and evolution than this one

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The March, 2018 SSW was not “the same thing” not even close. It was a completely different event and evolution than this one

Eps has artic air in the long range. Everything is going as planned. 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The March, 2018 SSW was not “the same thing” not even close. It was a completely different event and evolution than this one

Please elaborate on the differences

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Please elaborate on the differences

For starters, the arctic cold went to our side of the pole, among other key differences. Read up: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/10303/2019/

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps has artic air in the long range. Everything is going as planned. 

dont need arctic cold at all

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, sometimes just cold enough is all we need at the coast for snow with the right storm track and teleconnections. But it’s always nice to have at least some Arctic air nearby to enhance our chances for a higher end event. Even our recent milder snowy Januaries had intervals around storm time  with -10 Arctic air available. 

NYC

Jan 18.....-0.9

2018-01-01	19	7	13.0	-20.4	52	0	0.00	0.0	T
2018-01-02	26	13	19.5	-13.8	45	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-01-03	30	16	23.0	-10.1	42	0	0.00	0.0	T
2018-01-04	29	19	24.0	-9.0	41	0	0.76	9.8	1

Jan 17.....+5.4

2017-01-06	33	25	29.0	-3.8	36	0	0.05	1.2	1
2017-01-07	26	20	23.0	-9.7	42	0	0.32	5.1	T
2017-01-08	25	16	20.5	-12.1	44	0	0.00	0.0	4
2017-01-09	23	14	18.5	-14.0	46	0	0.00	0.0	3

 

Jan 16....+1.9

2016-01-19	28	16	22.0	-10.3	43	0	0.00	0.0	T
2016-01-20	37	27	32.0	-0.3	33	0	0.00	0.0	T
2016-01-21	36	26	31.0	-1.3	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2016-01-22	30	21	25.5	-6.9	39	0	0.01	0.2	0
2016-01-23	27	24	25.5	-6.9	39	0	2.31	27.3	6

 

what do we categorize as arctic air?  I say it should be single digits or lower in Jan and Feb, and we haven't needed that for our biggest storms.

 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what do we categorize as arctic air?  I say it should be single digits or lower in Jan and Feb, and we haven't needed that for our biggest storms.

 

When the 510 Arctic thickness line drops down near the Northeast. Usually this time of year it’s a -10 departure or lower. Highs often stay in the 20s with lows in the 10s. Lows below 10 are usually reserved for the strongest Arctic outbreaks.  

https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/Heights_Thicknesses/thickness_temperature.htm

The 5,700, 5,400 and 5,100 thickness lines will be shown in solid yellow. A thickness of less than 5,100 is associated with arctic air while a thickness of 5,700 or greater is associated with tropical air. 

[TriPol]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps has artic air in the long range. Everything is going as planned. 

 

::EMPEROR PALPATIINE GIF::

[Allsnow]

We will get artic air by the second half of the month. The TPV moves south into Canada then the -NAO/-ao put a squeeze play on it, 

[sussexcountyobs]

Light snow has begun falling here. 33°

[SnoSki14]

This is a darn good snow pattern coming up.

It's not very cold but cold enough however by mid Jan the west pops a PNA and EPO region improves significantly likely allowing some arctic air to pour south.