January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 54°

Clouds will increase tomorrow as another storm approaches the region. Some accumulating snow is a possibility to the north and west of New York City and Newark. From Philadelphia to New York City, mainly or all rain is likely. Boston could see some accumulation of snow.

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks so much, Don!  That was quick work!  And AO/PNA data is included!

 

 

The AO/PNA data for the most recent storm (December 16-17) will be added once the final numbers are available in a few days.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not a myth here....I have a standard that I measure snowy months by and above and beyond everything else, it means number of double digit snowfalls.  And January in the 80s had zip zero zilch nada double digit snowfalls here after 1982 (the only double digit January snowfall that I can remember was January 1982) and lots of events that were suppressed to our south or that cut.  I was in Brooklyn or the south shore of Nassau County during the 80s (1980-1982 Brooklyn, 1983 and beyond in southern Nassau.)

Our new warmer climate has actually meant much more exciting Januarys with bigger snowstorms.  Having lived throughJanuarys during the 80s, they were much colder, but also dull and boring with lots of little 1-2 inch events and an outlier 4" event here and there.  Even the so-called "exciting" events like Jan 1987 and 1988 didn't hit double digits.

April 82?  Didn't qualify? Cant remember the CP snowfall. 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But it's interesting that it wasn't a disappointment for the coast..... with a +NAO you'd expect a storm to cut and favor the interior yet in that case eastern LI was buried with over 20 inches of snow in Jan 2015!

 

The overpowering -EPO/+PNA  along with the +AO forced the best snowfall east of NYC into New England. That may have been the only time that we saw such a combination. Areas to the S and W of NYC had lower snowfall totals.

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
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Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2015-04-30	110.6	0

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
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Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2015-04-30	63.7	0

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2015-04-30	50.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2015-04-30	40.3	3

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
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Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2015-04-30	27.0	0

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The AO/PNA data for the most recent storm (December 16-17) will be added once the final numbers are available in a few days.

Don, would the NAO be about the same as AO, and which is a better predictor for east coast wintry events?

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 

Walt, we were just concentrating on January events; I wish we could have included April 1982 as it was the most memorable 80s event aside from Feb 1983.  April 1982 was 9.6" at NYC and 8" at LGA and JFK, although EWR had about 13"  ISP had 16" I think?

 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The overpowering -EPO/+PNA  along with the +AO forced the best snowfall east of NYC into New England. That may have been the only time that we saw such a combination. Areas to the S and W of NYC had lower snowfall totals.

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2015-04-30	110.6	0

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2015-04-30	63.7	0

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2015-04-30	50.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2015-04-30	40.3	3

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2015-04-30	27.0	0

 

Chris, doesn't this somewhat remind you of March 2001?  It had a better outcome for us than March 2001 did, but that event also had heavier snow north and east of us!  Another storm like this was Feb 2013.

[STORMANLI]

Bellerose, Queens was 8.0".

[STORMANLI]

Sorry, failed to add the remarkable 22f at 2pm on that April 1982 snowday.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, would the NAO be about the same as AO, and which is a better predictor for east coast wintry events?

 

I added the NAO, along with ISP.

[MJO812]

Add the eps also to this

[the_other_guy]

It is too warm.

We are pushing this mild January leads to snow narrative.

This whole week is 3 to 5° above normal. All you do is eliminate possibilities with that airmass.

You become totally dependent on track, phasing, timing. To bring in a baseball analogy because it feels like spring outside, You are hoping for a homerun because picking up runs through small ball fundamentals isnt going to work

Yesterday was rain, tomorrow will be rain, the next one will be rain unless it is a perfect setup.

That’s a bad position to be in if you like snow.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

It is too warm.

We are pushing this mild January leads to snow narrative.

This whole week is 3 to 5° above normal. All you do is eliminate possibilities with that airmass.

You become totally dependent on track, phasing, timing. To bring in a baseball analogy because it feels like spring outside, You are hoping for a homerun because picking up runs through small ball fundamentals isnt going to work

Yesterday was rain, tomorrow will be rain, the next one will be rain unless it is a perfect setup.

That’s a bad position to be in if you like snow.

It depends on where you are in the sub forum. Many members on this board N and W will see snow tomorrow. 

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Add the eps also to this

When Earthlight speaks, I listen. 

[MJO812]

Game on

[donsutherland1]

Colder weather will return tonight into tomorrow. Tomorrow will see increasing clouds. A cold rain will overspread the Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Some sleet or wet snow is possible at the onset. North and west of the cities, there could be some accumulations. Poughkeepsie and Hartford could see 2"-4" snow. Boston could pick up 1"-2".

Afterward, a generally mild regime will likely prevail.

The likely continuation of Arctic blocking through at least the first 10 days of January would typically provide a higher than climatological probability for above normal snowfall. Ideally, an expansive block would be anchored across the Baffin Bay or Greenland, not south of the Davis Strait.

Blocks that are anchored near Newfoundland and Labrador can inhibit opportunities for snowfall and result in warmer to much warmer than normal conditions in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. This is now the most likely scenario for much of the first half of January. Under this scenario, the first 10-15 days of January will likely be much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada. After January 10, the EPO continues to show a possible transition that could lead to a trough's moving into the East.

Arctic air will likely shift mainly to Eurasia. However, the evolving pattern could be sufficiently cold to afford opportunities for snowfall if the pattern evolves as currently shown on the EPS.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +18.05 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.910.

On January 1 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.640 (RMM). The December 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.568.

A significant stratospheric warming event is now in its early stages. The highest levels of the stratosphere will continue to warm through the first half of the first week of January. The mean zonal winds will likely reverse at 1 mb, 10 mb, and 30 mb making this a major warming event. Toward the end of the first week in January, the top layers of the stratosphere will likely begin to cool.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January.

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It depends on where you are in the sub forum. Many members on this board N and W will see snow tomorrow. 

I agree. We have a good chunk of people south and east of 287. They will see rain or useless snow.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

It is too warm.

We are pushing this mild January leads to snow narrative.

This whole week is 3 to 5° above normal. All you do is eliminate possibilities with that airmass.

You become totally dependent on track, phasing, timing. To bring in a baseball analogy because it feels like spring outside, You are hoping for a homerun because picking up runs through small ball fundamentals isnt going to work

Yesterday was rain, tomorrow will be rain, the next one will be rain unless it is a perfect setup.

That’s a bad position to be in if you like snow.

Interesting baseball analogy.  The best teams (like the 90s Yankees) use a combo of homeruns and small ball fundamentals.  Because depending on just one simply doesn't work.

 

[CIK62]

18Z  GFS, uncorrected for the next 17 days shows no changes.         Another day older and deeper in heat>>>>>   Avg. 40degs.(35/44), or +7.0.      CMC has the best T's,  I think.

GEFS Extended has the usual>>>>>A control that shows a low of 60degs., when the coldest member simultaneously shows  -15degs.------Week 4 now.     Keeps slipping.    In early December it showed New Years Eve at near Zero.

The only real blocking going on is at the synapses of the meteorologists and the models they create.

When are we suppose to see the benefits of this Blocking pattern anyway?

[wdrag]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt, we were just concentrating on January events; I wish we could have included April 1982 as it was the most memorable 80s event aside from Feb 1983.  April 1982 was 9.6" at NYC and 8" at LGA and JFK, although EWR had about 13"  ISP had 16" I think?

 

My error... I read too fast.  Thanks.  

[JustinRP37]

Just wondering has Twitter Wx ever predicted a normal to below average snow season? Because typically all I ever see there is above average snow, especially from the #natgas crew. 

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Just wondering has Twitter Wx ever predicted a normal to below average snow season? Because typically all I ever see there is above average snow, especially from the #natgas crew. 

Pretty sure most went below average.  I would have too if I made forecasts.  

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Just wondering has Twitter Wx ever predicted a normal to below average snow season? Because typically all I ever see there is above average snow, especially from the #natgas crew. 

yeah whats with that crew anyway....I'm "naturally repelled" by the "natgas" crew....let's call it what it is: METHANE.  No "natural" euphemisms necessary.  It's like when the "high fructose corn syrup" people tried to lay the "corn sugar" euphemism on us.

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting baseball analogy.  The best teams (like the 90s Yankees) use a combo of homeruns and small ball fundamentals.  Because depending on just one simply doesn't work.

 

Actually, sadly, baseball as a whole has moved towards homerun hitters. It is why the game has become so boring. It is all or nothing. Just like our winters haha

 

 

[HVSnowLover]

5 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

It is too warm.

We are pushing this mild January leads to snow narrative.

This whole week is 3 to 5° above normal. All you do is eliminate possibilities with that airmass.

You become totally dependent on track, phasing, timing. To bring in a baseball analogy because it feels like spring outside, You are hoping for a homerun because picking up runs through small ball fundamentals isnt going to work

Yesterday was rain, tomorrow will be rain, the next one will be rain unless it is a perfect setup.

That’s a bad position to be in if you like snow.

Don’t need perfect setups in January for snow but as we saw last winter and are now seeing this winter it really is about threading needle or else it’s rainstorms and slop storms galore south of I84 in a warm January. Not necessarily boring pattern but not going to lead much accumulating snow. 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Actually, sadly, baseball as a whole has moved towards homerun hitters. It is why the game has become so boring. It is all or nothing. Just like our winters haha

 

 

Yeah I hope the ratings drops will give them a clue to change it back to what it was.

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Pretty sure most went below average.  I would have too if I made forecasts.  

Really? I’ve been seeing a lot of the same usual epic winter ahead lately on Twitter. Granted I rarely log on these days. Most of the true pros I follow went below average to average. A few of the skiing guys I follow are down about this winter. I’m just busy trying to pack up for the move, but sure hope for snow in Putnam County! 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Really? I’ve been seeing a lot of the same usual epic winter ahead lately on Twitter. Granted I rarely log on these days. Most of the true pros I follow went below average to average. A few of the skiing guys I follow are down about this winter. I’m just busy trying to pack up for the move, but sure hope for snow in Putnam County! 

Yea.  Things changed.  People were not expecting this upcoming pattern when they made their seasonal forecasts. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 38degs.(33/42).        Making it 33degs., or just Normal.

GFS (0Z)with a total of 13" from  both the 9th. and 13th.  this run.   Gone again by 06Z.      Other models just a Trace.   Musical Chairs continues among models.    Hunk of Junk.

Maybe 5 storm chances before Cryogenic City begins around the 19th.***

***Both the Extended GFS and EURO have a step-down slope as we enter the bottom of the Normal curve.         Sub-zero days are shown  for last week of the month in both cases------but the EURO even has the Control Member go sub-zero.       First sub 20 reading by the 20th, or earlier if we get some snow cover.

38*(70%RH) here at 6am, overcast.       39* by 8am.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

At 8 am, precipitation was advancing north and eastward through eastern Pennsylvania and central New Jersey. Rain was falling at such locations as Atlantic City and Philadelphia. Snow was falling just south of Allentown.

Rain and sleet will move into Newark and New York City this morning and continue into the evening. Well north and west of those cities, there will be accumulating snow with 2”-4” and some locally higher amounts likely. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and perhaps lower 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 39°

Newark: 40°

Philadelphia: 42°

Drier weather will return tomorrow.