January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[EastonSN+]

Not sure how much it matters with a continued -AO, but the MJO is forecasted to really get stuck in the mid MJO phase 7.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

winters coldest max...total days max below 20...
19 or lower max's and low max...

It does look like one of those days that struggles to get out of the low 20s during the afternoon. Looks like CAA maxes out from late morning into the early afternoon. Had the timing been 6-12 hrs earlier, NYC could have had a shot at around 10°.

[uncle W]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It does look like one of those days that struggles to get out of the low 20s during the afternoon. Looks like CAA maxes out from late morning into the early afternoon. Had the timing been 6-12 hrs earlier, NYC could have had a shot at around 10°.

the first real cold and look what comes after...I don't think its the last cold shot of the season...maybe just the start...

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We will have blocking so the gradient might be further south along with the TPV in eastern Canada 

there's also a difference between a gradient pattern in December vs one in the heart of winter.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/27/2021 at 10:06 AM, bluewave said:

A trough in the Pacific NW would be bad beyond February 2nd. But the trough in the Plains with phase 7 would be mixed. We would get the occasional cutter. But they could pull in colder air from the Plains behind the cold front. Maybe some gradient winter storm possibilities. As always, gradient storms only work if you end up in the right side of the gradient. Maybe better for interior sections? Then we have to see what happens with the mid and late February details which is beyond the range of the extended guidance.

this honestly sounds a lot like December, it wouldn't be the first time a pattern returns.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Today will be variably cloudy and cold. A strong cold front will cross the region this afternoon. Some areas could see some flurries or even a burst of snow. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 32°

Newark: 33°

Philadelphia: 34°

A significant snowfall is possible early next week. Approximately 75% of the EPS ensemble members from the 1/28 0z run showed 6” or more snow for New York City. GFS soundings suggest that there will be some rain or sleet in the City and that the snow could be fairly wet as temperatures hover around 33° or 34° during much of the storm. 

from what I've seen it looks like rain and sleet would only be around for a short time, Don? as the storm pushes east and stalls out it should be all snow

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the first real cold and look what comes after...I don't think its the last cold shot of the season...maybe just the start...

didn't you have a couple of analogs that included bookend winters?

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

from what I've seen it looks like rain and sleet would only be around for a short time, Don? as the storm pushes east and stalls out it should be all snow

About 75%-80% of the precipitation was snow on the 6z soundings. I haven't looked at the 12z soundings, but will check later. Things, of course, can still change given how far the storm is in the future and the complexity involved with Miller B transitions.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

This will be the 3rd winter in a row when a straight ENSO based seasonal forecast didn’t work out. Competing influences have been the way to go for 18-19,19-20, and 20-21. The previous 3 winters of 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 were exaggerations or cartoon versions of ENSO climatology. 15-16 had the classic El Niño progression. Historic frontloaded  +13.3 warmth followed by one of the best backloaded El Niño snowstorms  in late January. 16-17 had the backloaded La Niña record warmth, but great snowstorms throughout. 17-18 had the expected front-loaded La Niña cold and snow through Jan 8th, then the historic backloaded La Niña 80° warmth in February with average temperatures near 40°. 

 

 

 

 

15-16 was very similar to 82-83 but even more extreme (in both directions!)  In that case, perhaps we can say that climate change caused the greater extremes?  17-18 seems similar to that but with the opposite signal.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

About 75%-80% of the precipitation was snow on the 6z soundings. I haven't looked at the 12z soundings, but will check later. Things, of course, can still change given how far the storm is in the future and the complexity involved with Miller B transitions.

sounds somewhat like February 1961

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not sure how much it matters with a continued -AO, but the MJO is forecasted to really get stuck in the mid MJO phase 7.

Yeah if that happens Feb will torch. 

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not sure how much it matters with a continued -AO, but the MJO is forecasted to really get stuck in the mid MJO phase 7.

While Phase 7 (amplitude 1.000 or above) is typically very warm in February (mean temperature of 43.4° in New York City for the February 1-29, 1974-2020 period), it is somewhat cooler when the AO is at or below -1.000 (41.0°).

However, there have been exceptions. Early February 1978, which culminated in a major blizzard was one such case. One long-duration event was February 1-10, 1993. There was a lot of variation in daily temperatures, but the mean temperature was 31.6°. There were also three days on which the temperature fell into single digits (February 1-2, 7). The coldest temperature was 7°, on February 2 and February 7. March 1993 saw a major East Coast snowstorm.

Just as one has witnessed competing factors that have precluded a canonical La Niña response to date, despite the La Niña's relative stability at moderate levels), there could be factors that delay or even limit the magnitude of warming should the MJO enter a long-duration pause in Phase 7.

Having said that, I think the first week of February will turn warmer following the storm on February 1-2. Whether that warmth is sustained is uncertain. Some of the guidance has periodically suggested another fresh shot of cold near the end of the first week of February or just afterward.

 

[donsutherland1]

Seasonal snowfall amounts to date include:

Albany: 39.5" (6.4" above normal)
Baltimore: 2.1" (7.2" below normal)
Binghamton: 65.1" (21.0" above normal)
Boston: 23.1" (1.1" above normal)
Bridgeport: 13.0" (0.3" above normal)
Buffalo: 42.0" (17.3" below normal)
Burlington: 34.1" (8.3" below normal)
Caribou: 44.7" (13.2" below normal)
Harrisburg: 11.7" (1.4" below normal)
Islip: 7.8" (4.1" below normal)
New York City: 10.6" (0.7" below normal)
Newark: 12.9" (0.1" above normal)
Philadelphia: 6.6" (2.7" below normal)
Portland: 25.2" (7.4" below normal)
Providence: 15.0" (3.3" below normal)
Washington, DC: 0.3" (7.4" below normal)

Many of those locations will likely see additions to these figures within the next week.

The coldest air mass so far this season is now pushing into the region. As a result, tomorrow and possibly Saturday could see high temperatures only in the lower and middle 20s in much of the region. Central Park will very likely see its first teens of the season overnight tonight.

The ensembles suggest that the PNA could approach positive levels or even go positive near the end of the month into the start of February. That could allow for the potential of a snow event during the February 1-2 period before milder air returns during the first week of February. At present, the potential currently exists for a significant (6" or greater) snowfall in some parts of the Middle Atlantic and/or southern New England regions.

The EPS ensemble forecast 500 mb pattern in eastern North America is somewhat similar to that on January 30, 1966 except that the trough is modeled somewhat to the south of where it was then. The January 29-31, 1966 storm brought a widespread 6" or more snowfall from Washington, DC to Boston. In short, the forecast pattern suggests potential and it is similar to one case where the snowfall potential was realized. Nevertheless, one should not use the 1966 case to infer largely identical outcomes. The evolution of the storm will determine where the heaviest snows fall and how much snow falls.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +21.11 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.601.

On January 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.903 (RMM). The January 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.736.

Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere has continued to cool. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.7°.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Seasonal snowfall amounts to date include:

Albany: 39.5" (6.4" above normal)
Baltimore: 2.1" (7.2" below normal)
Binghamton: 65.1" (21.0" above normal)
Boston: 23.1" (1.1" above normal)
Bridgeport: 13.0" (0.3" above normal)
Buffalo: 42.0" (17.3" below normal)
Burlington: 34.1" (8.3" below normal)
Caribou: 44.7" (13.2" below normal)
Harrisburg: 11.7" (1.4" below normal)
Islip: 7.8" (4.1" below normal)
New York City: 10.6" (0.7" below normal)
Newark: 12.9" (0.1" above normal)
Philadelphia: 6.6" (2.7" below normal)
Portland: 25.2" (7.4" below normal)
Providence: 15.0" (3.3" below normal)
Washington, DC: 0.3" (7.4" below normal)

Many of those locations will likely see additions to these figures within the next week.

The coldest air mass so far this season is now pushing into the region. As a result, tomorrow and possibly Saturday could see high temperatures only in the lower and middle 20s in much of the region. Central Park will very likely see its first teens of the season overnight tonight.

The ensembles suggest that the PNA could approach positive levels or even go positive near the end of the month into the start of February. That could allow for the potential of a snow event during the February 1-2 period before milder air returns during the first week of February. At present, the potential currently exists for a significant (6" or greater) snowfall in some parts of the Middle Atlantic and/or southern New England regions.

The EPS ensemble forecast 500 mb pattern in eastern North America is somewhat similar to that on January 30, 1966 except that the trough is modeled somewhat to the south of where it was then. The January 29-31, 1966 storm brought a widespread 6" or more snowfall from Washington, DC to Boston. In short, the forecast pattern suggests potential and it is similar to one case where the snowfall potential was realized. Nevertheless, one should not use the 1966 case to infer largely identical outcomes. The evolution of the storm will determine where the heaviest snows fall and how much snow falls.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +21.11 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.601.

On January 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.903 (RMM). The January 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.736.

Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere has continued to cool. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.7°.

 

Don was that Jan 1966 also of long duration and the heaviest storm of the year?  If memory serves, that season was best further south; Norfolk had over 40"  It was an el nino year. and our best winter of that decade was actually the following season, 66-67, after a historically dry and hot summer.  Big streak of historically dry years that was broken by that 66-67 winter

 

[tim]

...just had a snow shower/squall..whitened the ground..road covered..20.2* here in eastport

[Dan76]

Surprised no wind adv

[Intensewind002]

8 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Surprised no wind adv

Yep. Lights have been flickering a bit here, even saw some power flashes in the distance

[Dan76]

Welp.....they must be listening lol

[the_other_guy]

13F. Nice!

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of January are averaging 21degs.(16/27), or -11.0.

Month to date is 36.1[+3.7].         January should end at 34.6.

GFS and CMC are 10", while EURO is 3".      GFS also  has bigger storm(Blizzard?) around the 10th.

The first half of February is averaging 34degs.(27/34), uncorrected.

19*(46%RH) here at 6am. {High of 22* at 4:30am}      18* at 6:30am.      17* at 6:45am.       16* at 7:15am.     17* at 9am.       20* by 11:30am.        21* by Noon.       Reached 26*  3:30pm-4:30pm.          20* by 9pm.

[Brian5671]

coating of snow here this am

[Snowshack]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

coating of snow here this am

Same in wading river, nice surprise. 14f with a gusty wind.  Feels like winter!

[HailMan06]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

13F. Nice!

I kinda miss the days when we would go subzero.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Looking like 12 degrees in New City / Rockland right now ,,,,,,I see a quick walk in my dogs future ,,,,out , take care of business and then right back into the house lol

[Rtd208]

Cold out there this morning. 

Current temp 17

[jm1220]

14 here.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don was that Jan 1966 also of long duration and the heaviest storm of the year?  If memory serves, that season was best further south; Norfolk had over 40"  It was an el nino year. and our best winter of that decade was actually the following season, 66-67, after a historically dry and hot summer.  Big streak of historically dry years that was broken by that 66-67 winter

 

One should not use the 1966 blizzard to draw conclusions about the upcoming event. I mentioned it just to illustrate that reasonably similar 500 mb patterns in eastern North America have produced big storms before.

The 1966 storm brought 6” or more snow from North Carolina to southern New England. It also triggered lake effect snow around its strong circulation. Some accumulations: Boston: 6.3”; New York City: 6.8”; Philadelphia: 8.3”; and, Washington, DC: 13.8”. New York City changed over to rain as the storm tracked northward just to its west.

Where lake effect snow was involved, Rochester received 26.7” and Syracuse picked up 39.0”.

Unlike the upcoming storm, the 1966 storm developed along an advancing Arctic front. 

[bluewave]

This was one of the latest arrivals of significant  Arctic air that we have seen here.  2nd latest 12° at HPN just behind last year. 3rd latest drop below 20° in NYC. The 2nd latest 15° at ISP behind last year.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
2019	03-08 (2019)	12	02-15 (2020)	9	343
2006	01-16 (2006)	11	01-29 (2021)	12	373

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1931	02-15 (1931)	16	02-16 (1932)	18	365
2001	02-22 (2001)	17	02-05 (2002)	19	347
2012	01-22 (2012)	18	01-29 (2021)	15	365

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
2019	03-08 (2019)	14	02-15 (2020)	13	343
1994	03-01 (1994)	14	01-29 (2021)	15	333

[ForestHillWx]

Currently 13 with winds gusting to 15 mph. Coldest day this winter. 

[MJO812]

Tellies going forward

AO looks to stay strongly negative

PNA is rising this week but then it stays neutral with some members going back negative

NAO is rising this weekend but then it stays neutral with some members going negative.