January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[CIK62]

18Z GFS (an untrustworthy run usually---is our salvation?) for the last week of the month is again  averaging 33degs. (28/38).        Barely normal when a day ago it was 12 degrees less and more fitting of a PV breakup.        We would finish January w/o getting below 20.      Snow on the 26th. is virtually gone too.

Roy Orbison is readying himself to sing    "It's Over"-----but I won't give the link yet.    lol         Seems I use this song too often.

[MJO812]

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

we are still slightly above normal in the metro so far only need a few inches the rest of the month to stay above normal for the season - also note the lack of lake effect snow this year caused by the lack of any real arctic air so far. Also below normal so far in parts of the Ohio Valley .

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That Bridgeport yearly average to day is false as Bridgeport is notorious for under reporting through history.

[NEG NAO]

0Z GEM  

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFSv16

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFSv16

Euro is a New England special but its still 200 hours out.

[tmagan]

If winter ended today, Central Park would tie for the tenth warmest winter ever.

[wdrag]

Good morning all,  My take based on the 00z/06z ops and 00z/18 ensembles.  00z/18 NAEFS helped guide the wintry and qpf call (~0.4" w-e  I80 axis)

The I84 corridor has basically scattered dustings this afternoon and evening, Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday afternoon, and again Thursday-Friday. Amounts in the Poconos might add up to 1 or 2 inches by Friday, trace to 1/2 inch elsewhere by Friday eve. Basically just be alert for quick changes but overall no big deal. 

 

Travelers into the northeast USA Monday-Tuesday the 25th-26th should be aware that an extensive light to moderate hazardous wintry episode is expected for all untreated surfaces, especially the I84 corridor. It may even briefly begin as snow-ice down to Philly Monday. The front end Monday start time is uncertain..it could start for a couple of hours Monday morning then stop for 12 hours. The bulk of this event probably occurs late Monday night into Tuesday night the 26th. Odds favor a change to rain south of I80 by Tuesday morning the 26th, but ice or snow north of I80, especially the I84 corridor.   NYC-LI--- have no confidence on sleet-snow start or just rain...close but for now both are options, from a multiple model blend. Right now, I think most of the wintry is to the nw-ne of NYC, though a start as wintry is possible.  I'll probably start a thread on this, this afternoon pending receipt of the entire slate of guidance.  I do see the para is south and that the EPS ensembles are south.  I just think there is enough ensemble data for an event of sorts. Will check back mid afternoon.

 

[greenmtnwx]

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 35degs.(30/39).          Making it 30degs., or -2.0.

TOTAL MODEL FAIL.      COLD IS GONE FOR JANUARY  and   FEBRUARY STARTS ALL IN THE 50'S.      Must be the lack of upper air data over the Pacific due to Covid commercial airline flight cancellations.       I love making excuses.

CMC still the coldest, and with some snow still showing near the 26th.

Oooh!,  I almost forgot:

40*(65%RH) here at 6am.      39* at 7am.          45* by Noon.        47* by 3pm.         39* by 10pm.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, tmagan said:

If winter ended today, Central Park would tie for the tenth warmest winter ever.

Another winter with very little cold air anywhere in the country so far

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, tmagan said:

If winter ended today, Central Park would tie for the tenth warmest winter ever.

Is that notable in 2020? Perhaps for a cool year? Almost every month we have is at or above normal these days.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 47°

A strong cold front could move across the region late in the week bringing a period of light snow or flurries.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is weaker with the -EPO and stronger with the -PNA for January 26th than a few days ago. So a system that is too amped will be too warm like some of the 0z OP models were showing. A weaker system like the models had yesterday was getting forced to the south. So we may need a perfect thread the needle track to get snow out of this one.

New run

Old run

Yet another -EPO fail incoming and yea, the -PNA is getting stronger as we move forward in time

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good morning all,  My take based on the 00z/06z ops and 00z/18 ensembles.  00z/18 NAEFS helped guide the wintry and qpf call (~0.4" w-e  I80 axis)

The I84 corridor has basically scattered dustings this afternoon and evening, Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday afternoon, and again Thursday-Friday. Amounts in the Poconos might add up to 1 or 2 inches by Friday, trace to 1/2 inch elsewhere by Friday eve. Basically just be alert for quick changes but overall no big deal. 

 

Travelers into the northeast USA Monday-Tuesday the 25th-26th should be aware that an extensive light to moderate hazardous wintry episode is expected for all untreated surfaces, especially the I84 corridor. It may even briefly begin as snow-ice down to Philly Monday. The front end Monday start time is uncertain..it could start for a couple of hours Monday morning then stop for 12 hours. The bulk of this event probably occurs late Monday night into Tuesday night the 26th. Odds favor a change to rain south of I80 by Tuesday morning the 26th, but ice or snow north of I80, especially the I84 corridor.   NYC-LI--- have no confidence on sleet-snow start or just rain...close but for now both are options, from a multiple model blend. Right now, I think most of the wintry is to the nw-ne of NYC, though a start as wintry is possible.  I'll probably start a thread on this, this afternoon pending receipt of the entire slate of guidance.  I do see the para is south and that the EPS ensembles are south.  I just think there is enough ensemble data for an event of sorts. Will check back mid afternoon.

 

The models are all over the place with next weeks event - was surprised that the EURO went from a miss to the south at 12Z yesterday - to last nights 0Z lakes cutter agreeing with many other models that the block is basically a non factor with no redevelopment south of us along the coast.And then the EURO ensembles are south ?? Also the timing start is questionable - is that 12 pause in the event even real on the surface maps of some models ? Along with the early Monday morning start time ? Too many questions here and not enough answers yet IMO. Won't even get into precip type issues as the track of the storm being a major question mark at this time will basically decide the main precip type in any given location around the metro. I think just a general winter storm thread covering the 25th thru 27th with a details to follow description headline is an idea IMO - also there will be several adjustments in the details as the week wears on IMO....

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With such a limited amount of cold air, we end up relying on thread the needle solutions for snow. Too weak a storm it gets suppressed and too strong it’s warm. Challenging pattern this winter with blocking too far south and models underestimating the Pacific Jet. 

 

 

The models have consistently been way too cold in the long range since November. Too aggressive with fantasy -EPO’s and to a lesser extent +PNA’s. A function, I believe like you said, of underestimating the PAC jet. The end of this month is getting warmer by the day with each model run, now they are playing catch-up as we get closer because they were way too cold at range 

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Another winter with very little cold air anywhere in the country so far

SSW fail like it always does

[MJO812]

 

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Yep, February is in trouble, big trouble. Both -NAO/-AO showing signs of breaking down in the beginning of February, couple that with MJO phase 6/-GLAAM and you have a torch-a-rama in the east. If anyone was wondering where the canonical La Niña pattern has been, here it comes.....

[Brian5671]

well if it's not going to snow give me warmth.   40 and partly cloudy every day is worthless

on the plus side the warm winter nationwide is helping with the pandemic-less disruption due to snow/cold, people can get outside, mass testing/vaxx sites can be set up easier etc etc.   A 13-14 type winter this year would have been brutal in that regard.

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

SSW fail like it always does

not sure why everyone gets excited for these-once in awhile it benefits us-but it's mostly a benefit for the other side of the globe....

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

not sure why everyone gets excited for these-once in awhile it benefits us-but it's mostly a benefit for the other side of the globe....

The information on social media concerning such events is typically quite poor. Although a lot is still not well understood, there is a large body of evidence that displacement events typically favor North America for cold while vortex-splitting events typically favor Eurasia with the cold. This SSW fell into the latter category. Parts of Asia and Europe have seen some severe cold. Much of North America hasn’t.

[donsutherland1]

In December New York City received 10.5” snow. In January, just a trace of snow has fallen. The lowest January snowfall figures following a December with 10.0” or more snow were 0.1” during winter 1933-34 and 0.3” during winter 1912-13.

In addition, there have been 10 cases where January received less than 6.0” snow following a December with 10.0” or more snow. In 40% of cases, the remainder of winter saw less than 10.0” snow. In 50% of cases, the remainder of the snow season saw 20.0” or more snow. In all cases during which the remainder of winter picked up more than 10.0” snow, February saw 10.0” or more snow.

 

[snowman19]

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Nino region 4 in a free fall, now -1.2C. When was the last time it’s been this cold? I honestly can’t remember seeing SSTs that cold in region 4. Over the last decade, it’s consistently been the warmest ENSO region

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS Continued you would think at this point with the LP encountering resistance from the blocking it would redevelop off the coast

[HeadInTheClouds]

Models are flip-flopping like a fish out of water. 

[NEG NAO]

and it does redevelop and slide off the coast

 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

But they have all been consistent all along indicating that it will take a thread the needle to get a significant snow.

Kinda the same thing every winter lately...guess we have to depend on these kinds of events to sometimes deliver, because the 'favorable" patterns just seem out of reach every year....