NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: I do think that we get a -PNA interval at some point in late January into early February. This is a rare instance of the PNA being positive every day from mid-November into mid-January. The wild card for beyond early February may be what happens with the SPV and if it can propagate down. Also the MJO details beyond early February are still unknown. watch -that's when we will have another SECS or MECS around here - wouldn't be surprised ....also the 12Z models so far GFS and CMC look stormier around here beginning next weekend - this dry spell won't last forever....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I do think that we get a -PNA interval at some point in late January into early February. This is a rare instance of the PNA being positive every day from mid-November into mid-January. The wild card for beyond early February may be what happens with the SPV and if it can propagate down. Also the MJO details beyond early February are still unknown. Agree. The ssw could help us in the epo domain. Geps and GEFS continue to bump higher hgts in the epo domain from the dateline ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Not trying to correlate. Wanted to know. Do u have the answer? I don't. But I think the data Don S (and possibly others) posted previously would answer your question. 50% of average or less probably happens something like 20-33% of the time. And seasons with 10" storms are also somewhat uncommon. So we're dealing with a relatively small sample of years. Since 10" is not far below 50% of average, the situation you're describing is basically getting one significant storm in December and then nothing of significance the rest of the season. I'm sure that doesn't happen very often, but there's no reason why it couldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I think the real wild card will be March. Niña March’s can go either way, some turn cold, some stay warm. February tends to be the torch month in a Niña due to the tropical forcing. Plus you have the very short wavelengths in March, which lead to some crazy outcomes at times Almost everything with weather is a wildcard. There is huge uncertainty everywhere. There are no extremely strong correlations between indices and local weather. We can't lock in anything except a high likelihood for AN temps at all timescales beyond 1 week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Agree. The ssw could help us in the epo domain. Geps and GEFS continue to bump higher hgts in the epo domain from the dateline ridge What are your thoughts on the 1/16 - 1/19 period? IMO, I’m thoroughly unimpressed, I doubt we see anything more than FROPA. The setup stinks, the airmass stinks, not sure what some like about it honestly. I think we are in for a mostly boring 9 days coming up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The CMC almost pulled off an event on the 16th. It's pretty close to something, and shows what could happen with a higher amplitude trof and a s/w rounding the bend in the deep south. The GFS and Euro don't look hopeless for this period, but still pretty far off. Can't write it off 5+ days off. As others have noted, the following wave (with timing differences between apprx. the 19th and 21st) looks threatening on most 12z guidance today. But there's very little confidence 10 days out obviously. Can't rule out a warm solution or a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: watch -that's when we will have another SECS or MECS around here - wouldn't be surprised ....also the 12Z models so far GFS and CMC look stormier around here beginning next weekend - this dry spell won't last forever....... It’s always a challenge guessing when snowfall will start up again following a long break. It will be a month this week since the area near the coast saw accumulating snows. Snowfall return intervals after past pauses have been highly variable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: What are your thoughts on the 1/16 - 1/19 period? IMO, I’m thoroughly unimpressed, I doubt we see anything more than FROPA. The setup stinks, the airmass stinks, not sure what some like about it honestly. I think we are in for a mostly boring 9 days coming up I’m not that interested in the wave along the front idea. The cmc and euro had it today but looks warm. Our best shot will be after that between the 18-20th. I have no idea if that will work. But we have a better shot then getting nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Looks like another round of blocking coming in February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Don’t buy into the Niña look? Eps once again pumping the epo ridge this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Guess we'll have to wait until February for our big one storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 53 minutes ago, TriPol said: Guess we'll have to wait until February for our big one storm. End of jan 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALEXA Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Brian and snowman19 loves weenies. Look at the pattern ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The GEFS PWAT Negative Anomaly is nearly continuous for the next 16 days, except maybe for part of the Jan. 14-18 period. So how can we expect anything big to happen anyway? Another little item is that 2M T's are tracking the wild 50 degree F change I mentioned earlier today for the 850mb surface. 2M T goes from 9 to 53 in two days, 23rd. to the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, TriPol said: Guess we'll have to wait until February for our big one storm. What makes you think there will only be 1 big storm? And in February? Why won't there be 3 or 4 small events from now till early February? Then why will there not be more than 1 big storm in February? Please explain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 29 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The GEFS PWAT Negative Anomaly is nearly continuous for the next 16 days, except maybe for part of the Jan. 14-18 period. So how can we expect anything big to happen anyway? Yes and the GEFS are always so accurate 2 weeks out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The Pacific Jet continues on steroids. Looks like a 220KT max today. So no surprise that we will continue with this mild airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Pacific Jet continues on steroids. Looks like a 220KT max today. So no surprise that we will continue with this mild airmass. It's been boring but not mild. Slightly above normal, yes, but not mild. Had highs in the mid 30's this weekend. Right now 26. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: It's been boring but not mild. Slightly above normal, yes, but not mild. Had highs in the mid 30's this weekend. Right now 26. That’s mild for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, qg_omega said: That’s mild for January Nope. Normal high for Poughkeepsie area is 35 this time of year. Highs last 3 days were 33, 34, and 36 with forecast high of 34 tomorrow. Like I said, boring but not mild. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 KPOU, through yesterday, is running 4.2 above normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Nope. Normal high for Poughkeepsie area is 35 this time of year. Highs last 3 days were 33, 34, and 36 with forecast high of 34 tomorrow. Like I said, boring but not mild. Overnight lows have averaged 10 degrees above average, daytime highs 3 to 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: KPOU, through yesterday, is running 4.2 above. For the month maybe and that's mainly because overnight lows have been 20 instead of normal of 15. It's been pretty cold and I still have snow OTG from the the 3 inches I got last Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: For the month maybe and that's mainly because overnight lows have been 20 instead of normal of 15. It's been pretty cold and I still have snow OTG from the the 3 inches I got last Sunday. I still have snow on the ground here too from last week but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s been mild in comparison to normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I was wrong about KPOU...they are actually 5.3 above normal for the month. Albany is +4.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, IrishRob17 said: I still have snow on the ground here too from last week but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s been mild in comparison to normal. It's been above normal for the month so far mainly because of nighttime lows. Highs in mid 30's is not "mild". I don't care what time of year it is. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 30 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's been above normal for the month so far mainly because of nighttime lows. Highs in mid 30's is not "mild". I don't care what time of year it is. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Nice still night out there tonight Going to be quite a range in temperatures between urban and rural. Already down to 27 here after a high of 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 42 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: KPOU, through yesterday, is running 4.2 above normal. If that's not mild Idk what is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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