Allsnow Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I thought the eps improved in the nao and ao domain today. Hopefully the trend continues 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Second wind reversal with a weaker vortex the rest of the winter now being forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Cold here today. Mostly cloudy and a slight wind of the northwest. 34 now and feels like the warmest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: its January 9th and we are still above average this season - no one here has a clue how much total snowfall we will end up with this season...........we still have 3 months of potential remaining Not saying we will wind up below normal. Again, it's about people bitching "I don't want to put up with another below average season" while looking at recent years where NYC has had mostly above average snow totals (including 1 year of nearly 3 times historical norms) and bitch like we are being cheated if we have a couple of skunk years. It makes zero sense... Almost st as bad as Coastal posters complaining that they didn't get accumulating snow in October when their normal high temp was 57 or so. Childish brooding is all it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Second wind reversal with a weaker vortex the rest of the winter now being forecast Euro has it also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Really won’t make much of difference as long as the Pacific remains unfavorable. Should have been more specific it has a better poleward epo ridge this run when compared to last night. Did you even look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: I looked at the whole run. The Dateline Ridge is still there at the end of the run with a trough in the West. I just don’t trust that Pacific Jet with the pattern we have in place right now. Agree. But the epo region improved along with - stronger block. That will make a difference if a dateline ridge dose develop in regards to snow/cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Snow flurries/shower moving through Queens/Brooklyn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I thought the eps improved in the nao and ao domain today. Hopefully the trend continues Here is what I mean with a better epo domain and stronger nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 A relatively quiet weather pattern remains in place. A seasonably cold but dry weekend lies ahead. The dry weather could last through at least the middle of week. The first 10-15 days of January will likely be generally warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada overall. After January 10, the EPS continues to shows a transition during which a trough will move into the East. During the second half of January, there will be some potential for snow events in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, the evolution of the AO will determine whether such potential continues into February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +4.25 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.867. On January 8 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.617 (RMM). The January 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.595. Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The mean zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. They could reverse at 30 mb. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will likely split. The dominant piece will, as is typical with such events, migrate to Eurasia. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.3°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/5/2021 at 11:33 AM, NEG NAO said: that's why this pattern might not favor snow storms in the northern mid atlantic till those are in place - confidence around here will not be very high if we have 2 misses to the south within the next week and then we get much below normal cold and dry for another week or more - it's when the pattern with the -NAO starts to relax slightly at the end of the month into February as the -EPO and + PNA settles in is probably the most favorable time for east coast snow storms and would match perfectly climatology the January 20th - February 11th period so patience is the key IMO. I am still sticking to this outlook I made on 1/5 except the temps might not be much below normal in our area after this coming weeks storm passes for the following week- PATIENCE IS THE KEY IMO - around January 20th - Feb 11th is the most favorable period for winter storms coming up as mentioned previously IMO ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: But look at that big -PNA trough in the West. The Dec 31 EPS had a -EPO +PNA for Jan 18-25th. So that’s telling us the retrogression back to the Dateline and -PNA has speed up by several days. 12-31 EPS....Jan 18-25 I agree that we will see a dateline ridge but I would like to keep higher hgts in the epo domain and stronger block. This will allow for us to have the potential for overrunning events as storms cut west 18z gefs went to the eps with dateline ridge. They do keep the poleward epo and -nao like the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I agree that we will see a dateline ridge but I would like to keep higher hgts in the epo domain and stronger block. This will allow for us to have the potential for overrunning events as storms cut west 18z gefs went to the eps with dateline ridge. They do keep the poleward epo and -nao like the eps Why don't you think some of these storms will try and cut west then be forced to develop along the coast to our south then ride up the coast - keeping us mainly frozen ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Why don't you think some of these storms will try and cut west then be forced to develop along the coast to our south then ride up the coast - keeping us mainly frozen ? If we can keep the strong block in place that’s a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Good Sunday morning everyone, Dec 10. No significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events are showing up in the preponderance of modeling for the next two weeks, nor any sustained below normal cold. Eventually something has to change. I will probably will wait 2 or 3 successive consistent op and ensemble cycles before any potential topic. Just too much suppression. 15-16th 500MB digging into the northeast USA still looks impressive but probably too late for any wave on the front. GFS is just charging offshore with the cfront while one 00z/10 GGEM cycle holds back and offers minimal hope for the 16th. NAEFS is not impressed with anything around here through the 25th. Make it a good one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(33/41). Making it 32degs., or -1.0. No snow to talk about. GFS is heading for the 50's by the end of its run----not the single digits of a P.V. spilt. Models should be offered early retirement. I can look out my window. The Control Member for the 850mb T rises 50 degrees F in two days: Jan. 24 to Jan. 26. Take that, you SSW! 31*(56%RH) here at 6am. 30* at 7am. 39* by 2pm. 40* at 2:15pm. 41* at 2:30pm. 43* at 3pm. 38* by 8pm. 37* by 10pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The all or nothing snowfall pattern continues for North America. Rollercoaster ride hitting record highs in October followed by record lows in November. Quick rise in mid-December then a fall around Christmas. Now the snow extent is near the bottom of the list for January 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: The all or nothing snowfall pattern continues for North America. Rollercoaster ride hitting record highs in October followed by record lows in November. Quick rise in mid-December then a fall around Christmas. Now the snow extent is near the bottom of the list for January 9th. The -PMM is rapidly strengthening right now. This should lead to the weakening of the STJ and a more Niña like response in the atmosphere. Also, the PDO is getting more deeply negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 12 hours ago, bluewave said: But look at that big -PNA trough in the West. The Dec 31 EPS had a -EPO +PNA for Jan 18-25th. So that’s telling us the retrogression back to the Dateline and -PNA has speed up by several days. 12-31 EPS....Jan 18-25 The GEFS has now joined the EPS and the GEPS in showing a big Aleutian ridge, -PNA/RNA by 1/25. Unanimous agreement. It would appear that the long awaited canonical La Niña response is on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I think this is why the models all sped up the -PNA trough in the West. They all had it at the week 3 and 4 intervals. Last several days is the first time that it has moved up to week 2. So it may be the rapidly weakening PMM combined with MJO shifts from the IO to eventually the Maritime Continent. Agreed. The -PNA/Aleutian ridge pattern starts emerging on 1/22 and is fully in place come 1/25, it’s definitely in the believable range now and sped up by over a week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All the calls of this upcoming pattern looking like 2009-2010 were foolish. I wish models didn't go past 200 hours. Too many people make a forecast based off of weenie range . that's why you have to be cautious and limit the reading the twittersphere hysteria with calls of 09-10 and other stuff meant to click on their posts.. - people starting to fight on other forums, that's another sign the pattern is going down the tubes.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 42° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 44° The dry weather will continue through mid-week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The -PMM is rapidly strengthening right now. This should lead to the weakening of the STJ and a more Niña like response in the atmosphere. Also, the PDO is getting more deeply negative At this point I welcome any pattern change. We probably will fair better snowfall wise with the la Nina pattern than this pattern, which produced absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The all or nothing snowfall pattern continues for North America. Rollercoaster ride hitting record highs in October followed by record lows in November. Quick rise in mid-December then a fall around Christmas. Now the snow extent is near the bottom of the list for January 9th. I wonder when the last time NYC received 10 inches of snow by end of December and ended up with less than 50% of average snowfall for the year? Thinking 89/90? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Good Sunday morning everyone, Dec 10. No significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events are showing up in the preponderance of modeling for the next two weeks, nor any sustained below normal cold. Eventually something has to change. I will probably will wait 2 or 3 successive consistent op and ensemble cycles before any potential topic. Just too much suppression. I see no reason we can't stay warm and relatively snowless. If there is a change, I'm concerned it could be back to a "cutter" type pattern with the main trough axis too far west. I see some indications of this toward the end of some recent model runs. I don't trust any climate index based "pattern" talk out past 10 days. I hope for a good change, but I want to see it in range of the mid-range models first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I wonder when the last time NYC received 10 inches of snow by end of December and ended up with less than 50% of average snowfall for the year? Thinking 89/90? The December 17 event was just one fluke storm. It could have easily ended up as a relatively pedestrian 5" event like places nearby in north-central NJ. Fixating on the supposed correlation between 10" storms and seasonal snowfall in NYC is silly and not statistically sound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, eduggs said: The December 17 event was just one fluke storm. It could have easily ended up as a relatively pedestrian 5" event like places nearby in north-central NJ. Fixating on the supposed correlation between 10" storms and seasonal snowfall in NYC is silly and not statistically sound. Not trying to correlate. Wanted to know. Do u have the answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 38 minutes ago, eduggs said: The December 17 event was just one fluke storm. It could have easily ended up as a relatively pedestrian 5" event like places nearby in north-central NJ. Fixating on the supposed correlation between 10" storms and seasonal snowfall in NYC is silly and not statistically sound. The track sucked. We were so lucky . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The -PNA during La Ninas from January 15th to Feb 28th makes NYC 4”+ snowfall challenging. So it’s not a great snowfall pattern for NYC should it lock in for an extended period. But it’s not Impossible for NYC to sneak in 4” event. Feb 2018 was the one La Niña -PNA event since 2000. 2-17-18.....4.4”.....PNA....-0.2 2-9-17.......9.4”.....PNA....+0.6 1-27-11.....19.0”...PNA....+1.2 1-19-09......4.0”....PNA....+0.8 2-3-09........4.3”....PNA....+0.2 2-22-08.....6.0”.....PNA.....+0.6 2-12-06.....26.9”...PNA.....+1.6 1-25-00......5.5”....PNA.....+0.8 That’s if the pna locks in that long. We really haven’t had anything out there lock in the long this winter. I didn’t think the eps looked horrible last night. It was cold but just had a lack of precipitation. It will be interesting if that looks does come because in January the wavelengths are longer then February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That’s if the pna locks in that long. We really haven’t had anything out there lock in the long this winter. I didn’t think the eps looked horrible last night. It was cold but just had a lack of precipitation. It will be interesting if that looks does come because in January the wavelengths are longer then February I think the real wild card will be March. Niña March’s can go either way, some turn cold, some stay warm. February tends to be the torch month in a Niña due to the tropical forcing. Plus you have the very short wavelengths in March, which lead to some crazy outcomes at times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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