LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Remember Alberta clippers??? They were fun back in the 90s. Occasionally one would drop 3 or 4” inches of powder followed by real cold... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Remember Alberta clippers??? They were fun back in the 90s. Occasionally one would drop 3 or 4” inches of powder followed by real cold... I remember a stretch were we once got 3 in one week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I remember a stretch were we once got 3 in one week! I remember that, think it was late 90s early 2000s. Nice quick thumps of 2-3” at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Remember Alberta clippers??? They were fun back in the 90s. Occasionally one would drop 3 or 4” inches of powder followed by real cold... Honestly, small events keep things from being boring like right now. I'm always interested in tracking clippers and even lake effect squalls that drop a quick inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 At least this -NAO is paying off for parts of Europe. Much easier to put together a record snowfall when an unfavorable Pacific can’t impact your pattern. Shows how just a -NAO can be a big influence for Europe. The AEMET weather agency described the situation as "exceptional and most likely historic". Earlier in the day, children in Madrid could be seen hurling snowballs or playing under snow-covered palm trees, while others snapped photos of the rare whiteout which began in earnest the day after Spain celebrated King's Day -- or Epiphany. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Models are correcting more positive with the EPO for later in the month. This is telling us that the models continue to underestimate the strength of the Pacific Jet. That’s why the EPS are warmer than the GEFS during week 2. Another modeled -EPO fail incoming. The beat goes on....hit the repeat button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: At least this -NAO is paying off for parts of Europe. Much easier to put together a record snowfall when an unfavorable Pacific can’t impact your pattern. Shows how just a -NAO can be a big influence for Europe. The AEMET weather agency described the situation as "exceptional and most likely historic". Earlier in the day, children in Madrid could be seen hurling snowballs or playing under snow-covered palm trees, while others snapped photos of the rare whiteout which began in earnest the day after Spain celebrated King's Day -- or Epiphany. So while many say climate change I would say pattern change. Snow is falling elsewhere if it’s not falling here. Just because our winters have sucked as of late doesn’t mean it translates worldwide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 hours ago, justinj said: I remember that, think it was late 90s early 2000s. Nice quick thumps of 2-3” at night I’m going to say mid 2000s. It was the middle of January. At the end of the week we had 6+ inches on the ground in city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Say what ? Every friggin winter you and Brian love trolling. Its getting annoying and tiring. Everyone busted last season. No one thought it was going to be a bad winter. We now have a ssw event unfolding with the models bringing very cold air in the middle of the month. The coast has more snow than we had all last winter and its only early January. Many people are on board with a favorable pattern starting next week. How long will it last ? That's the big question but it should get colder. We're not trolling we like a good storm(s) as much as you do but posting 10D maps always 10 days away with nothing to show for well...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 A relatively quiet weather pattern remains in place. A seasonably cold but dry weekend lies ahead. The dry weather could last into early next week. The first 10-15 days of January will likely be generally warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada overall. After January 10, the EPS continues to shows a transition during which a trough will move into the East. During the second half of January, there will be some potential for snow events in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, the evolution of the AO will determine whether such potential continues into February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +16.77 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.893. On January 7 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.595 (RMM). The January 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.289. Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The mean zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. They could reverse at 30 mb. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will likely split. The dominant piece will, as is typical with such events, migrate to Eurasia. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.0°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Good Saturday morning everyone-Jan 9. Quiet time. Nothing for me to latch onto. No major long lasting below normal outbreak foreseen here prior to Saturday January 23, and until something suddenly emerges, no significant snows around here prior to the 18th. I was hoping the big 500MB trough digging and going negative for a time through the northeast USA Fri-Sat 15th-16th would give us a chance but so far, nothing doing. 00z/9 GEFS and EPS have us with less than 1" qpf next 16 days. So something will have to change the pattern. Unsure when the stratwarm snowier impacts will show up here, if at all. Maybe someone else can be more optimistic. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(34/43). Making it 34degs., or +1.0. No Snow or Rain probably for two weeks or at least 10 days. "BN T's" is a cursed phrase. I am ready to invoke my TEN DAY WINTER theory----ala Feb. 05-15 1979. The dog has chased his tail and caught it! He bit into it and died! He mistook it for a poisonous rattlesnake. Poor Dumb Canine. 26*(64%RH) here at 6am. 32* by 11:30am. 33* at Noon. 34* by 1pm. 37* by 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 10 hours ago, Dan76 said: We're not trolling we like a good storm(s) as much as you do but posting 10D maps always 10 days away with nothing to show for well...... It looks like the coldest temperatures by later in the month will drop to our west again. Notice how much weaker the Pacific blocking is along the West Coast of North America than originally forecast. The extreme Pacific Jet that brought record low pressure to the Aleutians just won’t relax. New run Old run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Saturday morning everyone-Jan 9. Quiet time. Nothing for me to latch onto. No major long lasting below normal outbreak foreseen here prior to Saturday January 23, and until something suddenly emerges, no significant snows around here prior to the 18th. I was hoping the big 500MB trough digging and going negative for a time through the northeast USA Fri-Sat 15th-16th would give us a chance but so far, nothing doing. 00z/9 GEFS and EPS have us with less than 1" qpf next 16 days. So something will have to change the pattern. Unsure when the stratwarm snowier impacts will show up here, if at all. Maybe someone else can be more optimistic. The GEPS looks just as bleak as the other 2 models right through 1/19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks like the coldest temperatures by later in the month will drop to our west again. Notice how much weaker the Pacific blocking is along the West Coast of North America than originally forecast. The extreme Pacific Jet that brought record low pressure to the Aleutians just won’t relax. New run Old run As expected, the -EPO has disappeared and the +PNA is getting weaker and weaker as we move forward in time, the raging PAC jet keeps crashing into any +PNA ridge that tries to develop and knocks it right back down. I guess the PAC side is just not going to cooperate through 1/19 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GEPS looks just as bleak as the other 2 models right through 1/19 Just did this for New England forum... yes... pattern isn't bad... better than record setting USA 5s00MB ridge in the southeast USA. We have chances...they might not emerge til 2-3 days out?? But admittedly--- no clear cut favored snow event, yet. 06z/9 GEFS cycle slightly better. I've added 3 graphics. GEFS lows for 00z/16 as a sample, which is an event not completely north of us... but also prospects not that great here, despite what i think is quite a pair of shortwaves digging a big somewhat neg tilt through down the GLakes into the northeast. Then, added the 06z/ GEFs spaghetti 500MB for the 18th--- i think you all were referring to the cutter and I like this look too, for POTENTIAL, but I'd like more digging etc. The following GEFS qpf has minor bulge in the northeast as graphic added. Not a big deal but us snow lovers, we want to renew, so we'll look, but not jump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 45 minutes ago, snowman19 said: As expected, the -EPO has disappeared and the +PNA is getting weaker and weaker as we move forward in time, the raging PAC jet keeps crashing into any +PNA ridge that tries to develop and knocks it right back down. I guess the PAC side is just not going to cooperate through 1/19 This repeating model error has been so frequent in recent years, that the Upper Plains is one of the few spots on the planet that will see a slight decline in the new 30 year climate normals. Time after time, the coldest temperature departures have been dropping to our west. I guess the Pacific Jet is just too difficult for the models to handle long range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Eps overnight is now effectively advertising a transient period of favorability. With the ridging methodically retrograding to the dateline by the end of the run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 30s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 36° Newark: 38° Philadelphia: 38° The dry weather will continue through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 12 hours ago, Dan76 said: We're not trolling we like a good storm(s) as much as you do but posting 10D maps always 10 days away with nothing to show for well...... Just frustrating man People keep hyping up everything and it never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 35 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Eps overnight is now effectively advertising a transient period of favorability. With the ridging methodically retrograding to the dateline by the end of the run. it's quickly falling apart now. We'll be lucky to squeeze in one decent event at this rate 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 38 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Eps overnight is now effectively advertising a transient period of favorability. With the ridging methodically retrograding to the dateline by the end of the run. Yep, it’s actually moving up the Niña pattern flip earlier instead of keeping it way out in the long range and not moving it forward in time. Now, it wants to pump an Aleutian ridge and dump a full latitude trough into the west (-PNA/RNA) by 1/24. The advertised late month pattern flip to canonical La Niña seems like it’s going to be real 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just frustrating man People keep hyping up everything and it never happens. We got one nice hit this winter. Other than that looks like it will be another congrats interior winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 ...even the NFL games this weekend are showing a benign/boring forecasts for the cities that could normally be snowy/cold. ..@ Buffalo..sunny 34* @ Pittsburgh..partly cloudy 26*(nite game) @ Washington..sunny 45*. maybe by next w/e @ Green Bay can show us what winter should be.. Wondering if this well advertised pattern will ever come to fruition..having my doubts until Larry Cosgrove & Bernie Rayno still insisting on a cold/stormy period ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just frustrating man People keep hyping up everything and it never happens. Even you have to admit, this has been the trend for the last few seasons. I dislike this pattern too, don't get me wrong. Cold and dry is boring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it's quickly falling apart now. We'll be lucky to squeeze in one decent event at this rate Trusting the long range for any type of weather isn't a good idea. People keep bringing up the stupid ssw and get excited. That never works out well for our area. The pacific rules over everything 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: We got one nice hit this winter. Other than that looks like it will be another congrats interior winter If that even happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Even you have to admit, this has been the trend for the last few seasons. I dislike this pattern too, don't get me wrong. Cold and dry is boring. Syracuse has seen only 17 inches so far which is way below normal. There hasn't been a lot of cold air around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Syracuse has seen only 17 inches so far which is way below normal. There hasn't been a lot of cold air around. truly cold air has been scarce since the cold winters of 13-14 and 14-15. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: truly cold air has been scarce since the cold winters of 13-14 and 14-15. Remember when the waters use to freeze over ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: truly cold air has been scarce since the cold winters of 13-14 and 14-15. We had a nice stretch from December 2017 into January 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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