January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[wdrag]

fwiw: No topic yet, for a possible minor grazer around the 12th. Marginal snow temps and unknown northward extent. 00z/8 NAEFS/GEFS/EPS are northward from yesterdays cycles. Will reevaluate late today but i cant see going for a topic with less than 1" snow... other than an OBS topic for the date.  Just need to wait it out and get other stuff done.

 

Friday the 15th: Models have a notable cold front and it's possible there will be a period of small accumulative hazardous snow in the I84 corridor? Probably no big deal but it is a vigorous system and a week away so the forecast could change a bit.

 

Skating ice nw NJ: I wouldn't try skating on any pond/lake around nw NJ til after January 25th, if at all this winter.  I finally see some below normal 850 temps in the ensembles after the 22nd in w Canada... that is a change. However NAEFS through the 22nd h'as no below normal cold in the USA/Canada.  Just have to wait and see if we ever really get the stratwarm event - colder than normal impact down here. Stratwarm events are not my strong suit. Have a day!

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(33/41).        Making it 32degs., or -1.0.

Month to date is 38.1[+5.1].         By the 16th., it  should be between 35.0 and 37.5[+2.0<---->+4.5].

Models look warmer and basically snowless and dry otherwise, compared with last two days.       The dog has started to chase his tail.

>>>>>Meteorologists are blaming Covid-19 for their poor performance last year and to date.    No----more Mets are not getting sick or dying than in general----but the reduction in data from commercial flight curtailments means we know less about the atmosphere at jetstream altitudes---than normally.

29*(70%RH) here at 6am.        31* by 9am.         34* by Noon.          38* by 3pm.        32* by 11pm.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am just calling it a window of opportunity for snow  starting around the 16-18th. But it’s uncertain how much of the potential gets realized. The EPS is weakening the PNA faster now than just a few days ago. 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

It’s not only weakening the +PNA it’s lost the -EPO, which isn’t a shock, it’s been doing that for years now

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 40°

Newark: 41°

Philadelphia: 41°

A dry and seasonably cold weekend lies ahead.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don it seems like all the major media outlets are touting a multiweek period of cold and stormy conditions coming up starting next week and lasting through the end of January..  Is there anything to indicate this might be the case?

Also I really like your list of NYC area 6"+ snowfalls and the indices at the time.  I see you added ISP for an eastern area location, is it also possible you could add a western location to the list, say either ABE or MPO?  Thanks!

 

At some point, I may create one for ABE. That will require some research. However, the chart is as wide as Tableau Public permits. When I added ISP, the chart reached the edge of the permissible boundaries of the software.

[NEG NAO]

On 1/5/2021 at 11:33 AM, NEG NAO said:

that's why this pattern might not favor snow storms in the northern mid atlantic till those are in place - confidence around here will not be very high if we have 2 misses to the south within the  next week and then we get much below normal cold and dry for another week or more - it's when the pattern  with the -NAO starts to relax slightly at the end of the month into February as the -EPO and + PNA  settles in is probably the most favorable time for east coast snow storms and would match perfectly climatology the January 20th - February 11th period so patience is the key IMO.

I am sticking with what I wrote here this past Tuesday morning.............

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I am sticking with what I wrote here this past Tuesday morning.............

Looks like you might be right

The NAO is suppressing everything right now 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Are you seeing the same pattern I am, Chris?  The farther north you go, the stronger the anomalies.  It's like the fire that's been happening in the arctic for years now has finally spread to the northern reaches of our country.

 

Also, something else I've noticed, besides the big increase in big ticket snow and rain storms is that lake effect snowfalls have also gone way up.  Have you seen how Erie, PA, has experienced a THIRTY INCH increase in their annual snowfall over the last 50 years?  This is a result of late or no freeze of the Great Lakes.

 

Yeah, it’s a very well identified pattern.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/climate-change-rule-thumb-cold-things-warming-faster-warm-things

Colder places are warming faster than warmer places

Colder seasons are warming faster than warmer seasons

Colder times of day are warming more than warmer times of day

 

[snowman19]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping even a transient -EPO like we got before the snow event on Dec 16-17 will be enough for snow later in January. You can see how that was the only negative few days we had all winter. Like I said earlier in the thread, it’s been tough to lock in winter -EPO intervals for extended periods since the 14-15 winter. The ridge usually  pulls back to the Aleutians.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

2020 12 01   57.33
2020 12 02  -20.52
2020 12 03    1.92
2020 12 04   -3.55
2020 12 05   18.98
2020 12 06  113.53
2020 12 07  160.49
2020 12 08   91.29
2020 12 09   24.46
2020 12 10  -40.49
2020 12 11  -98.53
2020 12 12  -90.08
2020 12 13  -32.48
2020 12 14  -11.99
2020 12 15   48.80
2020 12 16  122.15
2020 12 17  153.25
2020 12 18  199.37
2020 12 19  250.26
2020 12 20  239.82
2020 12 21  120.24
2020 12 22   70.85
2020 12 23   58.12
2020 12 24   69.31
2020 12 25   92.27
2020 12 26   68.14
2020 12 27    3.10
2020 12 28   -1.63
2020 12 29   11.33
2020 12 30   61.32
2020 12 31   60.59
2021 01 01  127.22
2021 01 02  264.17
2021 01 03  296.05
2021 01 04  248.51
2021 01 05  260.79

This is why it holds weight that the models are showing a canonical Niña look at the end of this month and into February: 

Nino region 4 is over -1.0C....can’t remember when it’s been this cold: 

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is why it holds weight that the models are showing a canonical Niña look at the end of this month and into February: 

Nino region 4 is over -1.0C....can’t remember when it’s been this cold:

Yeah, it really gets back to the competing influences discussion that we had during the fall. The record +PMM was associated with the more Niño-like pattern so far this winter. But now that the PMM is quickly cooling, the models are showing a transition to a more Niña-like pattern. I mentioned this the other day. Now this new tweet is picking up on the idea. It shows how quickly the SST have cooled west of Central America. I posted for the SST chart not for references to any specific analog year.

 

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is why it holds weight that the models are showing a canonical Niña look at the end of this month and into February: 

Nino region 4 is over -1.0C....can’t remember when it’s been this cold: 

More importantly, the Niña is not rapidly weakening at all like some were saying the Euro showed. In fact, region 4 is still dropping. The Euro is going to be wrong. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

More importantly, the Niña is not rapidly weakening at all like some were saying the Euro showed. In fact, region 4 is still dropping. The Euro is going to be wrong. 

Can we just take it a week at a time. All these long range predictions are just wishcasting right now.

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Can we just take it a week at a time. All these long range predictions are just wishcasting right now.

It’s not a wishcast. It’s actually happening. In fact it’s now a west-based La Niña. The coldest anomalies are in region 4, and region 4 continues to drop. There is no rapid weakening, the trade winds are screaming, we’re in the midst of a huge burst and the SOI is positive as hell. That rapid weakening forecast is going to be dead wrong, the CFS nailed this  

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

More importantly, the Niña is not rapidly weakening at all like some were saying the Euro showed. In fact, region 4 is still dropping. The Euro is going to be wrong. 

This is correct. The idea that the La Niña would collapse was incorrect. It should persist through the winter and that base case has not changed. There can be fluctuations in the anomalies and a temporary warming may have driven speculation that it was rapidly dissipating. Over the past two weeks, the temporary warming reversed (something the CFSv2 showed).

[rclab]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s a very well identified pattern.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/climate-change-rule-thumb-cold-things-warming-faster-warm-things

Colder places are warming faster than warmer places

Colder seasons are warming faster than warmer seasons

Colder times of day are warming more than warmer times of day

 

I remember a child’s simple question, BW. Why do icicles  cry? As always .....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s a very well identified pattern.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/climate-change-rule-thumb-cold-things-warming-faster-warm-things

Colder places are warming faster than warmer places

Colder seasons are warming faster than warmer seasons

Colder times of day are warming more than warmer times of day

 

1 & 3 are saving the asses of mid latitude winter fans by compensating for #2.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is correct. The idea that the La Niña would collapse was incorrect. It should persist through the winter and that base case has not changed. There can be fluctuations in the anomalies and a temporary warming may have driven speculation that it was rapidly dissipating. Over the past two weeks, the temporary warming reversed (something the CFSv2 showed).

I think the idea that we would have this huge second half due to collapsing la nina was fraudulent, anyway given the atmospheric lag. A big second half in a la nina season is all about the poles, which are more likely to be favorable when it peaks relatively weak.

Folks need to hope that the SSW is strong enough to protract the blocking because that is the only thing that can save Feb, and I don't think it will happen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s not a wishcast. It’s actually happening. In fact it’s now a west-based La Niña. The coldest anomalies are in region 4, and region 4 continues to drop. There is no rapid weakening, the trade winds are screaming, we’re in the midst of a huge burst and the SOI is positive as hell. That rapid weakening forecast is going to be dead wrong, the CFS nailed this  

Right, there is a natural progression for la nina to become more westerly and canonical as the season progresses, which is likely in part why climo has them front  loaded for snow fans. This season is no different.

If you like winter in the east, then you want la nina east-based, and el nino west-based....keep the warmest anomalies away from the eastern regions, near the S American coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is pretty much what we thought, isn't it?  My prediction is we will be at or close to average seasonal snowfall by the end of January and from then on to the end of the season there will be less than 10 inches of additional snowfall.  We'll probably end up with between 25 and 30 inches of snow when all's said and done.  It's a lot better than the 10 to 15 I was thinking before December began.  So that would be a win.

 

 

I agree, but don't count out March for something.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1 & 3 are saving the asses of mid latitude winter fans by compensating for #2.

And this may help to compensate for #2 also. But I know that there are extended snow cover fans out there that may not feel that way. I am more about  snowstorm intensity and quality than how long it remains on the ground.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190124115353.htm

Even though climate change is expected to reduce the total amount of U.S. snowfall this century, it's unlikely to significantly rein in the most powerful nor'easters that pummel the East Coast, new research indicates.

 

 

[uncle W]

the snow in dec and then a long wait for the next one is working out...if it gets cold the snow will follow...

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

And this may help to compensate for #2 also. But I know that there are extended snow cover fans out there that may not feel that way. I am more about  snowstorm intensity and quality than how long it remains on the ground.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190124115353.htm

Even though climate change is expected to reduce the total amount of U.S. snowfall this century, it's unlikely to significantly rein in the most powerful nor'easters that pummel the East Coast, new research indicates.

 

 

instead of 12 measurable snowfalls adding up to 16" like in 1962-63 in a cold winter we are getting eight snowfalls adding up to 32" in a mild winter...

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

And this may help to compensate for #2 also. But I know that there are extended snow cover fans out there that may not feel that way. I am more about  snowstorm intensity and quality than how long it remains on the ground.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190124115353.htm

Even though climate change is expected to reduce the total amount of U.S. snowfall this century, it's unlikely to significantly rein in the most powerful nor'easters that pummel the East Coast, new research indicates.

 

 

I may be in the minority, and perhaps I would feel differently if I lived to be 123, but count me in on the global warming trade off from the perspective of a mid latitude winter fan. I'm okay with radiating to +3 instead of 0 in mid January, and melting a bit faster on average if its also falling faster. I mean....okay, every single season is now a top 3 warmest on record globally due to warm nights over Antartica, but mother nature has opened up a HECS drive through over the past 25 years. I can deal.

Hopefully by my 123rd birthday, I'm blind, so I won't see the bare ground, anyway.

[bluewave]

On 1/8/2021 at 10:19 AM, uncle W said:

instead of 12 measurable snowfalls adding up to 16" like in 1962-63 in a cold winter we are getting eight snowfalls adding up to 32" in a mild winter...

 

On 1/8/2021 at 10:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may be in the minority, and perhaps I would feel differently if I lived to be 123, but count me in on the global warming trade off from the perspective of a mid latitude winter fan. I'm okay with radiating to +3 instead of 0 in mid January, and melting a bit faster on average if its also falling faster. I mean....okay, every single season is now a top 3 warmest on record globally due to warm nights over Antartica, but mother nature has opened up a HECS drive through over the past 25 years. I can deal.

Hopefully by my 123rd birthday, I'm blind, so I won't see the bare ground, anyway.

I still think that we have a chance to see a 40-50” snowstorm event somewhere between NYC and Boston in the coming years.

 

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the snow in dec and then a long wait for the next one is working out...if it gets cold the snow will follow...

do you have a chart of the number of days between each one of NYC;s 10 inch or greater snowfalls ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping even a transient -EPO like we got before the snow event on Dec 16-17 will be enough for snow later in January. You can see how that was the only negative few days we had all winter. Like I said earlier in the thread, it’s been tough to lock in winter -EPO intervals for extended periods since the 14-15 winter. The ridge usually  pulls back to the Aleutians.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

2020 12 01   57.33
2020 12 02  -20.52
2020 12 03    1.92
2020 12 04   -3.55
2020 12 05   18.98
2020 12 06  113.53
2020 12 07  160.49
2020 12 08   91.29
2020 12 09   24.46
2020 12 10  -40.49
2020 12 11  -98.53
2020 12 12  -90.08
2020 12 13  -32.48
2020 12 14  -11.99
2020 12 15   48.80
2020 12 16  122.15
2020 12 17  153.25
2020 12 18  199.37
2020 12 19  250.26
2020 12 20  239.82
2020 12 21  120.24
2020 12 22   70.85
2020 12 23   58.12
2020 12 24   69.31
2020 12 25   92.27
2020 12 26   68.14
2020 12 27    3.10
2020 12 28   -1.63
2020 12 29   11.33
2020 12 30   61.32
2020 12 31   60.59
2021 01 01  127.22
2021 01 02  264.17
2021 01 03  296.05
2021 01 04  248.51
2021 01 05  260.79

Thankfully, my focus is the NE because I blew the PNA and EPO in the first half, which killed my national temp outlook. I nailed the arctic and atlantic, though...so that has saved me locally.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

I still think that we will get at least one 40-50” snowstorm event somewhere between NYC and Boston in the coming years.

 

The trick is that its getting more difficult to muster the arctic air necessary for maxing fronto. We had it in that December event thanks to the neg EPO excursion.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The trick is that its getting more difficult to muster the arctic air necessary for maxing fronto. We had it in that December event thanks to the neg EPO excursion.

We may need a loop like March 1888. Ideally, it would occur a little further east than in 1888. While we have less Arctic air now, the SSTs and moisture content would be higher. So lower ratio with more total liquid equivalent.
 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/the-great-blizzard-of-1888-americas-greatest-snow-disaster.html

[the_other_guy]

Are we going to have the rare day where we under perform today?

 

Only 29F at 1130a

[SACRUS]

Clouds overspreading north into the area