wdrag Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Climate Central compiled all the charts. It’s through the winter of 2019. So the record warmth last winter wasn’t included. https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/winter-warming-local-average-winter-temperature-2019 Excellent! Thank you very much.... Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Models are looking beautiful for mid January. Many people have pointed this timeframe out. Hopefully it happens 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Did you break out the shorts yet? No. Not today it was windy and cold. Maybe tomorrow morning? Wind should calm down, and it should only be in the upper teens to low twenties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Meteorologist Jeff Berradeli just wrote this https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stratospheric-warming-winter-weather-coming/#app 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Meteorologist Jeff Berradeli just wrote this https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stratospheric-warming-winter-weather-coming/#app I think this was the article from last year and they just changed the date. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I think this was the article from last year and they just changed the date. At least last January had snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 31 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I think this was the article from last year and they just changed the date. SSW is the most over hyped weather event ever 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: SSW is the most over hyped weather event ever Not if you live in Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: SSW is the most over hyped weather event ever Regrettably, I agree with you. It is equivalent of the main stream fake media throwing around the term polar vortex. And for that matter, I am so tired of the Weather Channel giving routine winter storms names. Did they name the routine winter weather event moving through North Carolina and Virginia tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 54 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: At least last January had snow It will snow this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said: I think this was the article from last year and they just changed the date. I spoke to him on Facebook. He likes what he sees for mid month onward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 A relatively quiet weather pattern remains in place. Through Friday, partly sunny and somewhat milder than normal conditions will likely prevail. The likely continuation of Arctic blocking through at least January 15 would typically provide a higher than climatological probability for above normal snowfall. Ideally, an expansive block would be anchored across the Baffin Bay or Greenland, not south of the Davis Strait. Blocks that are anchored near Newfoundland and Labrador can inhibit opportunities for snowfall and result in warmer to much warmer than normal conditions in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. This is now the most likely scenario for much of the first half of January. Under this scenario, the first 10-15 days of January will likely be generally warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada. After January 10, the EPS continues to shows a transition during which a trough will move into the East. The operational ECMWF has persistently shown an opportunity for snowfall during or near the end of the transitional period. Arctic air will likely shift mainly to Eurasia. However, the evolving pattern could be sufficiently cold to afford opportunities for snowfall if the pattern evolves as currently shown on the EPS. It remains possible that the pattern evolution could lead to a multiweek period with higher than climatological potential for snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +25.58 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -3.245. On January 6 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.288 (RMM). The January 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.048. A significant stratospheric warming event is continuing to evolve. The temperature has now peaked at 1 mb, but was still rising at 10 mb and 30 mb. Temperatures at those levels of the stratosphere should peak and begin falling in coming days. The mean zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. They could reverse 30 mb. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will likely split. The dominant piece will, as is typical with such events, migrate to Eurasia. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.0°. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: I’m liking it too but we still need to get climo given where we live! Its January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Eps is nice for next week All these vorts are causing mayhem with the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is nice for next week All these vorts are causing mayhem with the models any details for precip and type in metro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: any details for precip and type in metro ? Mixed solutions We just need phasing between the 2 streams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 My Weather Underground forecast for my area which is usually very bullish, had 2" of snow Tuesday and Tuesday evening this morning. Now says partly cloudy skies. Zero snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The EPS weeklies. They show a window for snow from around the 16-18th through late January. But it looks like the pattern becomes less favorable again by the beginning of February. For the few years that I've been casually looking at them, I consider the weeklies to have a poor track record of identifying actual snow threats. But I think people like looking deep into the future when things in the shorter term aren't going very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Eps is nice for next week All these vorts are causing mayhem with the models That's not really true. The playing field is a mess. Even if there is a phase for that 12th(ish) threat, any s/w that comes flying down could easily deamplify things and ruin the party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 8:12 AM, donsutherland1 said: It’s too soon to tell. The polar vortex should remain weak through much of the month. Nevertheless, the EPS weeklies are forecasting the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern for late January. At this point, that’s beyond their skillful range. Don it seems like all the major media outlets are touting a multiweek period of cold and stormy conditions coming up starting next week and lasting through the end of January.. Is there anything to indicate this might be the case? Also I really like your list of NYC area 6"+ snowfalls and the indices at the time. I see you added ISP for an eastern area location, is it also possible you could add a western location to the list, say either ABE or MPO? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Not if you live in Asia. Yeah I just saw a video of a new home that collapsed in northern India from 3 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Climate Central compiled all the charts. It’s through the winter of 2019. So the record warmth last winter wasn’t included. https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/winter-warming-local-average-winter-temperature-2019 Are you seeing the same pattern I am, Chris? The farther north you go, the stronger the anomalies. It's like the fire that's been happening in the arctic for years now has finally spread to the northern reaches of our country. Also, something else I've noticed, besides the big increase in big ticket snow and rain storms is that lake effect snowfalls have also gone way up. Have you seen how Erie, PA, has experienced a THIRTY INCH increase in their annual snowfall over the last 50 years? This is a result of late or no freeze of the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The EPS weeklies. They show a window for snow from around the 16-18th through late January. But it looks like the pattern becomes less favorable again by the beginning of February. Jan 18-25 Jan 25 - Feb 1 Feb 1 -Feb 8 This is pretty much what we thought, isn't it? My prediction is we will be at or close to average seasonal snowfall by the end of January and from then on to the end of the season there will be less than 10 inches of additional snowfall. We'll probably end up with between 25 and 30 inches of snow when all's said and done. It's a lot better than the 10 to 15 I was thinking before December began. So that would be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: Where the hell is this good pattern that people promised me ? The models keep pushing it back. the second half of January aint here yet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 12 hours ago, wdrag said: And just like that, it's gone from the op 12z/7 GGEM. Certainly no topic action on my part today. GFSv15,16. ICON and GGEM all south. Cant go with an EC alone and have no confidence in UK beyond 3 days. Will rereview with multiple ensembles this afternoon but i cant confidently topic this event for the NYC forum til sometime tomorrow at the earliest. Patience needed. I think we need to accept the smaller events as much more probable than any big I95 snowstorm. Also, its may be that our big ones for near the coast, occur when there is a large transition in NAO and PNA Can be either + or - LARGE change... When the oscillation is stable - or +, we might not get as many big storms. I do remember H. Archambault ne snowstorms paper talking about 3 successive short waves changing the oscillation to negative and as I recall, it was the third that nailed us in the northeast. These are infrequent dreams. I think the oscillation transitions require big jet stream adjustments, possibly helpful for a big storm here in the northeast? Finally, if we cant even get a couple 1-3"rs the next two weeks, then let's blast some cold air down here and get the front end thump snow ending as a bit of junky rain...at least we will marvel at dendrites for a few hours. Right now, it's car wash weather up here to get rid of the salty dirty look to our vehicles. Media could be right with their subtle pronouncement midday yesterday (based on the GFS) that it's basically quiet for at least another week or so? Myself, the best snowstorms around here in the northeast are northern-southern stream phasers and i don't see any hope for that til at least the 15th. PD2 is a great example of this. So was the 1960-61 winter. Don is compiling a great list of 6"+ snowstorms from the 1950s onward accompanied by existent index values. It's very valuable info! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 16 hours ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see the new EPS weeklies later. The latest GEFS weeklies have a pretty fast retrogression of the ridge back to the Aleutians by late January. This would allow a more La Niña-like -PNA to emerge by later in January into February. So hopefully we can maximize our snowfall potential after January 10th before a possible shift later on. It's likely going to be a two week period from Jan 15 to close to the end of the month. Hopefully we can get somewhere between 15-20 inches in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's likely going to be a two week period from Jan 15 to close to the end of the month. Hopefully we can get somewhere between 15-20 inches in that period. Gfs has a couple minor events and below average temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 14 hours ago, Allsnow said: Agree. this isn't to say we wont get another snowy period later on in the season, rarely is the last measurable snowfall in January. It's more likely that after a relaxation for a couple of weeks in February we get another snowy period near the end of that month and the beginning of March. The upcoming Mid to late Jan period will definitely be the peak of winter, but dont rule out another 5-10 inches of snow falling between the second half of February and the first half of March. It's happened quite frequently, even in mild winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 It's easier to be confident about time periods out beyond the scope of the operational midrange models. Confidence tends to evaporate as we get within range and things don't look as we hoped . Let's get a little closer and see how things look before we get too excited. I did like how things looked on the 0z guidance I've seen so far out beyond day 7. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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