MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Weeklies snowmap was made out of my basement. What a weenie map. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Following yesterday's system that brought rain and snow to parts of the region, a quieter pattern has now settled in. Through Friday, partly to mostly sunny and milder than normal conditions will likely prevail. The likely continuation of Arctic blocking through at least January 15 would typically provide a higher than climatological probability for above normal snowfall. Ideally, an expansive block would be anchored across the Baffin Bay or Greenland, not south of the Davis Strait. Blocks that are anchored near Newfoundland and Labrador can inhibit opportunities for snowfall and result in warmer to much warmer than normal conditions in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. This is now the most likely scenario for much of the first half of January. Under this scenario, the first 10-15 days of January will likely be much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada. After January 10, the EPS continues to show a possible transition that could lead to a trough's moving into the East. Arctic air will likely shift mainly to Eurasia. However, the evolving pattern could be sufficiently cold to afford opportunities for snowfall if the pattern evolves as currently shown on the EPS. It remains possible that the pattern evolution could lead to a multiweek period with higher than climatological potential for snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +25.40 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.711. On January 3 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.754 (RMM). The January 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.692. A significant stratospheric warming event is underway. The mean zonal winds has reversed at 1 mb and will likely reverse at 10 mb and possibly 30 mb. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will likely split. The dominant piece will, as is typical with such events, migrate to Eurasia. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 ::EMPEROR PALPATIINE GIF::. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Off topic but Central Park snowfall average has been raised to 30 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Off topic but Central Park snowfall average has been raised to 30 inches. Good, accuracy can only be guaranteed to the inch anyway, there was no reason to make it 29.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The ****ing lobe in Maine ruins this weekends and next week's storm. Smfh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Good, accuracy can only be guaranteed to the inch anyway, there was no reason to make it 29.9. Well it is 29.9 inches but I just rounded it off lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The .10" counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: The .10" counts People were saying that to the zoo keeper for years. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: The ****ing lobe in Maine ruins this weekends and next week's storm. Smfh On to February? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 34degs.(30/38). Making it 29degs., or -4.0. GFS(06Z) has no precipitation at all till day 16. The T falls off the cliff starting the 18th. EURO no precipitation either. CMC keeping the 13th. alive for some snow. The 12Z CMC has given up the Snow Ghost of Jan. 12,13 and it now is haunting the 12Z EURO. Nice work boys. 40* (72%RH)here at 6am, mod. overcast. Up from 39* at 2am. 42* by 10am. 44* briefly at 10:30am. 41* at Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Dan76 said: On to February? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: The ****ing lobe in Maine ruins this weekends and next week's storm. Smfh Things can still change, and likely will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Things can still change, and likely will This weekend's storm looks done. Next weekend's storm is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eric hyping another long-range -EPO....he did this back in November, hyped a huge -EPO period coming for December which of course never actually verified....none of the advertised long-range -EPO periods on the models have verified for years now. The last 3 winters in a row have had the models popping phantom negative EPO’s in the long-range, only to have them disappear and never verify. Fail after fail. I’ll believe it when it actually happens in real time, not fantasy on a long-range model. People continue to be fooled by the same mirage over and over. Can I see a +PNA period? Sure. +PNA is believable, but -EPO? I have very, very serious doubts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The only thing we can say about the day 10 to 5 EPS corrections is that the Davis Strait blocking is weaker and the +PNA is stronger. New run Old run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will become partly sunny. It will be milder than normal. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 40s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 42° Philadelphia: 43° The quiet weather pattern will continue at least through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Eric hyping another long-range -EPO....he did this back in November, hyped a huge -EPO period coming for December which of course never actually verified....none of the advertised long-range -EPO periods on the models have verified for years now. The last 3 winters in a row have had the models popping phantom negative EPO’s in the long-range, only to have them disappear and never verify. Fail after fail. I’ll believe it when it actually happens in real time, not fantasy on a long-range model. People continue to be fooled by the same mirage over and over. Can I see a +PNA period? Sure. +PNA is believable, but -EPO? I have very, very serious doubts The ensembles are also showing the negative epo. It might not be fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only thing we can say about the day 10 to 5 EPS corrections is that the Davis Strait blocking is weaker and the +PNA is stronger. New run Old run Bolds well for a coastal storm up the coast. This weekend's storm is toast for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 54 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Eric hyping another long-range -EPO....he did this back in November, hyped a huge -EPO period coming for December which of course never actually verified....none of the advertised long-range -EPO periods on the models have verified for years now. The last 3 winters in a row have had the models popping phantom negative EPO’s in the long-range, only to have them disappear and never verify. Fail after fail. I’ll believe it when it actually happens in real time, not fantasy on a long-range model. People continue to be fooled by the same mirage over and over. Can I see a +PNA period? Sure. +PNA is believable, but -EPO? I have very, very serious doubts kind of reminds me of the phantom -NAO the models showed the past 4-5 yrs. Only ones that really verified was March 2018 and the one now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Eric hyping another long-range -EPO....he did this back in November, hyped a huge -EPO period coming for December which of course never actually verified....none of the advertised long-range -EPO periods on the models have verified for years now. The last 3 winters in a row have had the models popping phantom negative EPO’s in the long-range, only to have them disappear and never verify. Fail after fail. I’ll believe it when it actually happens in real time, not fantasy on a long-range model. People continue to be fooled by the same mirage over and over. Can I see a +PNA period? Sure. +PNA is believable, but -EPO? I have very, very serious doubts You’re trying to hard lol. It’s happening this month. We will have the -epo/+pna/-ao/-nao it’s a deadly combo for snow and cold. The SSW happen yesterday which will seal the deal on January. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The only thing we can say about the day 10 to 5 EPS corrections is that the Davis Strait blocking is weaker and the +PNA is stronger. New run Old run It’s finally nice to look a models and not worry about cutters and warmth. We have finally broken the pattern of the pass two winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 47 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You’re trying to hard lol. It’s happening this month. We will have the -epo/+pna/-ao/-nao it’s a deadly combo for snow and cold. The SSW happen yesterday which will seal the deal on January. Its going to get brutally cold as we head later in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Its going to get brutally cold as we head later in January. dry or stormy cold ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliviajames Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: dry or stormy cold ? Give me cold any day and I will take my chances with snow. Never afraid of dry and cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: dry or stormy cold ? Of course dry is an issue if the blocking is too strong. We dont know that just yet but give me a positive PNA anda negative AO and EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 59 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You’re trying to hard lol. It’s happening this month. We will have the -epo/+pna/-ao/-nao it’s a deadly combo for snow and cold. The SSW happen yesterday which will seal the deal on January. When was the last time we had a good pattern that the models are showing ? 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 New 30 year climate normals will be warmer and snowier. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: When was the last time we had a good pattern that the models are showing ? 2018? Yes. I think as we get closer to February the main pattern will be -epo/+pna as the -NAO weakens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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