the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Moderate sleet at the moment for as long as that lasts 37F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Hi All, I only thread it, when I think it has a legit chance of being worthy of a NWS hazard or something out of the ordinary that the forum will want to follow. Great group of participants on AMWX and other forums... all having interest in winter storms or summer heavy convection, hurricanes, big wind etc. Thats us..weenies but appreciators also of the modeling. One of my goals: demonstrate success at extending heads up for potential weather events that will affect travel etc. Not all work out (12/29). Folks can look back anytime, see some of the guidance and expressions of confidence and judge for themselves. Scientists generally think I push the envelope of interest too far... I tend to think we don't prepare far enough in advance with contingency plans, should something turn out close. Models are raising the quality of all forecasters... not always, but more often than not. AND it will continue to improve, incrementally... That's why the GFSV16 (parallel) Anyway for 1/8-9, 11 and 17...am holding off... grazers and uncertainty, in some cases not enough separation between short waves, thermal profiles shakey, all argue caution. Soon as I see EPS or NAEFS jump on one of these... I'll cue it up (or yourselves can initiate). Just keep discussing and dreaming, always with climo and ENSO stats in mind, tempering enthusiasm of a big occurrence, beyond a few days. What I'm seeing in the NAEFS...and others have pointed out previously using other ensemble systems = the warmth in the USA will gradually diminish from south to north as the core of the warm anomaly shifts north of the border into perpetual nighttime snow covered Canada. That should allow a little more confidence mid-month as others have discussed. I hear and use the term outlier... also good to know that many times, early outliers sometimes become the result (ie the predominant predictable group as we draw closer to the event). Also, sample sizes broaden and adjust with time. This winter may or may not be an example. I'll check back in the morning: Just holding off for now. Good that this is all discussed. Will do whatever the forum consensus directs, if different from recent lead time topic issuances. Later, Walt 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, wdrag said: Hi All, I only thread it, when I think it has a legit chance of being worthy of a NWS hazard or something out of the ordinary that the forum will want to follow. Great group of participants on AMWX and other forums... all having interest in winter storms or summer heavy convection, hurricanes, big wind etc. Thats us..weenies but appreciators also of the modeling. One of my goals: demonstrate success at extending heads up for potential weather events that will affect travel etc. Not all work out (12/29). Folks can look back anytime, see some of the guidance and expressions of confidence and judge for themselves. Scientists generally think I push the envelope of interest too far... I tend to think we don't prepare far enough in advance with contingency plans, should something turn out close. Models are raising the quality of all forecasters... not always, but more often than not. AND it will continue to improve, incrementally... That's why the GFSV16 (parallel) Anyway for 1/8-9, 11 and 17...am holding off... grazers and uncertainty, in some cases not enough separation between short waves, thermal profiles shakey, all argue caution. Soon as I see EPS or NAEFS jump on one of these... I'll cue it up (or yourselves can initiate). Just keep discussing and dreaming, always with climo and ENSO stats in mind, tempering enthusiasm of a big occurrence, beyond a few days. What I'm seeing in the NAEFS...and others have pointed out previously using other ensemble systems = the warmth in the USA will gradually diminish from south to north as the core of the warm anomaly shifts north of the border into perpetual nighttime snow covered Canada. That should allow a little more confidence mid-month as others have discussed. I hear and use the term outlier... also good to know that many times, early outliers sometimes become the result (ie the predominant predictable group as we draw closer to the event). Also, sample sizes broaden and adjust with time. This winter may or may not be an example. I'll check back in the morning: Just holding off for now. Good that this is all discussed. Will do whatever the forum consensus directs, if different from recent lead time topic issuances. Later, Walt Start threads whenever you wish. You won't often hear that from moderators on these forums. You have earned your place in and the respect of the wx community through your years of hard work. Do your thing. We absolutely love having you here. 14 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 31 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said: Yes. Many don't understand its better to have a milder, stormy pattern in January. Yeah you will get skunked especially along the coast but you have a chance for a well timed blockbuster storm that would've been surpressed or never happened at all if the East was overwhelmed with cold dry air at the coldest time of the year Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow no mention of the gfs next friday? model has been inconsistent and has no other reliable support for a snowstorm - 12Z Euro is a complete miss to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 18z GEFS - No support on the ensembles for next Friday that I can see here. With the current pattern in place focusing on an event on the OP at 168 hours is fantasy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: exhibit A is January in the 1980s, lots of Arctic air and very little snow. I like milder Januarys and snow a lot better. Very little snow during the 1980's Jan is a myth that's been tossed around here & back when there was a pulse in the Philly forum. The reality is the 80's Jan were very good overall at Newark, Allentown & Philadelphia. At all 3 locations that was the 2nd snowiest decade on record during the month of Jan, most impressive for Philly with the long period of record. As for NYC during the 1980's Jan was slightly snowier than the period of record mean & median however since the 1930's it's in the top 3 outproducing 6 other decades. The long term Jan average at NYC is 7.8", 6 out of the 10 Jan's during the 1980's were above average. From a decade standpoint during Jan the 1950's are far & away the benchmark for pathetic snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Up until recently there were hardly any major events with a positive NAO. Certainly there were some big overrunning type storms or southwest flow events but these borderline KU events with deep coastal lows occurring with positive NAOs is mostly something that’s only occurred in the last decade The biggest recent disappointment for many came with the January 2015 blizzard shift to the east during the very +AO/+NAO. That was probably the snowiest winter for NYC when one of the lasting memories was such a high profile model error. The biggest recent NYC snowstorms were mostly Atlantic blocking driven rather than Pacific. But I don’t anyone would have predicted so much snow in NYC during such a +AO/ +NAO winter. I don’t even think the Boston crew believed during that fall that they could have had such a snowy winter solely driven by Pacific blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 An area of sleet changing to rain moved into the big cities of the northern Middle Atlantic region this afternoon. Overnight, periods of rain are likely and the temperature will likely hold steady and then begin to rise. Tomorrow will become partly sunny and much milder. Readings will likely rise into the 50s in much of the region. The likely continuation of Arctic blocking through at least the first 10 days of January would typically provide a higher than climatological probability for above normal snowfall. Ideally, an expansive block would be anchored across the Baffin Bay or Greenland, not south of the Davis Strait. Blocks that are anchored near Newfoundland and Labrador can inhibit opportunities for snowfall and result in warmer to much warmer than normal conditions in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. This is now the most likely scenario for much of the first half of January. Under this scenario, the first 10-15 days of January will likely be much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada. After January 10, the EPO continues to show a possible transition that could lead to a trough's moving into the East. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +15.27 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.950. On December 31 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.566 (RMM). The December 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.460. A significant stratospheric warming event is now in its early stages. The highest levels of the stratosphere will continue to warm through the first half of the first week of January. The mean zonal winds will likely reverse at 1 mb, 10 mb, and 30 mb making this a major warming event. Toward the end of the first week in January, the top layers of the stratosphere could begin to cool. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. For now, blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January. In large account due to a very warm start to the month, January will likely feature above to much above normal temperatures across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 36 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said: Very little snow during the 1980's Jan is a myth that's been tossed around here & back when there was a pulse in the Philly forum. The reality is the 80's Jan were very good overall at Newark, Allentown & Philadelphia. At all 3 locations that was the 2nd snowiest decade on record during the month of Jan, most impressive for Philly with the long period of record. As for NYC during the 1980's Jan was slightly snowier than the period of record mean & median however since the 1930's it's in the top 3 outproducing 6 other decades. The long term Jan average at NYC is 7.8", 6 out of the 10 Jan's during the 1980's were above average. From a decade standpoint during Jan the 1950's are far & away the benchmark for pathetic snowfall. That may go to the cold suppression theme during the 1980s. Some our our greatest January Arctic outbreaks occurred during the 1980s. So being a little further south may have benefitted Philly. The 1987 El Niño also favored areas of Central NJ with the slightly further storm track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 January Decade averages for NYC... decade...ave...high...low...ave/ max min max...min...snowfall...precipitation 1870's...30.3...37.5...23.8.........................68...-4......9.6"......3.29" 1880's...28.7...39.6...24.7......53.5.....4.3...65...-6......9.1"......4.12" 1890's...31.7...37.6...23.7......55.0.....9.0...64...-2......8.6"......3.46" 1900's...32.1...38.4...25.3......55.2.....7.5...64...-1......8.1"......3.07" 1910's...32.4...40.9...21.7......57.1.....6.6...69...-5......5.1"......3.77" 1920's...30.5...34.0...23.4......53.9.....4.6...62...-2......8.9"......3.52" 1930's...34.7...43.2...28.9......59.9.....9.7...70...-3......6.4"......3.98" 1940's...31.0...38.6...25.0......56.2.....7.6...63....0......7.7"......3.20" 1950's...33.7...41.4...28.5......58.7...10.8...72....0......5.0"......2.75" 1960's...31.8...37.4...26.7......55.4.....8.6...68...-1......7.1"......2.37" 1970's...30.6...37.3...22.1......57.5.....6.0...66...-2......8.0"......4.57" 1980's...31.3...37.4...26.1......57.4.....6.8...63...-2......7.9"......3.26" 1990's...34.8...41.4...25.6......60.9...11.2...66...-2......6.1"......4.47" 2000's...33.1...40.9...24.7......60.8.....9.8...72....1......7.2"......3.19" 2010's...32.8...38.0...28.6......59.2.....8.7...66....2....12.7"......3.60"..... 1870- 2019.....32.0...43.2...21.7…..57.2.....8.0...72...-6......7.8"......3.45" 1990- 2019.....33.6...41.4...24.7......60.3.....9.9...72...-2......8.7"......3.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 January daily snow depth for Newark NJ... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 2020......t.....t....0.....0.....t....1....t....t.....0.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2019......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....t.....0....0....T....0....0....0....T....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T 2018......T....0....0....8....7....7....6....6....5....3....1....0....0....0....0....0....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....1....0 2017......0....t.....0....0....T....2....6....5....3....2....0....0....0....1....1,,,,T....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....1 2016......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....1....1....T....0....0....T...24..20..19..17..14..10...9....8....7 2015......0....0....1....0....0....1....1....1....1....1....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....t.....5....3....6....8....7....6....6....6 2014......0....3....9....8....7....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0...10..10...7....6....5....5....4....1....1....1....1 2013......t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....T....0....0....1....1....0....T....0....0.....t 2012......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....o....t.....t.....0....0....0....3....3....2....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0 2011......9....6....3....1....T....T....2....2....2....1....3....9....7....7....5....5....4....6....4....2....6....4....4....4....4...15..22..20..18..17..15 2010......1....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....0....0 year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 2009......0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....2....1....1....1....T....1....1....T....2....2....2....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....3....1....T.....0 2008......0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2007......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....1....T....0....t.....t.....0....t.....0....0....1....1....1....1 2006......0....0....T....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....T....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0 2005......0....0....0....0....T....0....t.....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....1....T....1....1....1....9...11..10..10...8....8....8....7....7....7 2004......0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....t.....T....t.....2....6....5....4....4....3....3....2....2....2....2....2....2....7....9....8....6....6 2003......0....t.....T....1....1....T....T....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....1....1....1....T....T.....0....0....t.....0....0....T....T....0....T....0....t 2002......0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....3....3....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 2001.....10...8....7....7....7....7....6....6....5....4....4....3....2....1....T....T....0....t.....0....T....4....4....3....2....T....0....T....0....0....0....0 2000......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....2....2....1....1....T....7....5....4....4....3....4....4 year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1999......t.....0....t.....0....0....t.....t.....3....1....0....0....0....t.....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0 1998......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....2....T....0....0....0....T....T....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....0 1997......T....T....0....0....0....0....t.....0....1....T....2....1....T.....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....T....0....0....t.....0 1996......1....2....3....3....3....3...21..31..31..31..31..29..16..14...9....9....8....7....4....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....1 1995......0....t.....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0 1994......3....T....1....3....1....1....3....3....3....3....3....6....6....5....4....4....4....3....3....3....3....3....3....3....2....8....7....7....1....1....T 1993......0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....1....1....1....0....t.....t.....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0 1992......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....T....0....0....0....T....t.....0....0....t.....T....1....T....T.....0....0....0 1991......0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....T....1....T....6....3....2....2....2....1....0....t.....0....0....2....2....2....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....t 1990......0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....1....1....1....0....t.....t.....0....T....0....0....0....0....1....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1989......t.....t.....t.....T....0....4....4....2....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0 1988......T....0....1....5....3....3....3....9....9....8....7....7....6....5....5....5....4....3....T....t.....0....t.....t.....0....3....3....3....3....2....2....1 1987......4....3....3....2....1....T....T....T....0....T.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....1....1....1...12..12..10..10..14..14..13..11...9....5 1986......0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....T....2....2....2....1 1985......0....0....0....t.....3....2....T....0....0....0....1....1....T....T....T.....0....3....3....2....2....2....2....2....1....1....T....T....T....T....T....T 1984......0....T....T....0....0....t.....0....t.....0....3....5....4....3....4....3....2....2....5....8....7....7....6....5....5....4....2....1....T....T....1....1 1983......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....1....2....1....1....1....1....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1982......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....6....8....9....9....8....8....8....7....6....6....8....6....6....6....5....5....4....4....3 1981......T....T....1....1....1....2....5....3....3....3....3....3....3....3....3....2....2....2....2....2....T.....0....t.....t....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1980......0....0....0....T....3....1....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0 year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1979......0....0....t.....0....T....4....5....0....0....0....0....1....T....0....0....0....2....1....1....1....T....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0.....t 1978......2....2....2....1....1....T....0....0....T....T....T....T.....4....3....3....3....5....3....4...17..14..14..13..12..11...T....T....T....T....T.....T 1977......4....3....3....2....2....1....3....3....2....3....T....T....T....4....5....5....5....5....4....3....1....1....1....2....2....1....1....1....T....T.....T 1976......1....T....T....t.....0....0....0....T....0....0....2....2....1....0....t.....0....0....0....0....1....4....4....4....3....3....1....0....0....0....0....0 1975......1....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....1....T....T....T....T....T....t.....T....T.....T....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....T 1974......0....0....t.....1....1....T....T....T....5....5....5....4....4....3....3....3....2....2....1....T....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1973......0....0....t.....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....1....T....T 1972......0....t.....0....0....1....1....1....T....T....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....2....1....1....1 1971......7....7....6....4....1....T....T....T....T....T....T.....0....T....2....2....1....1....1....1....1....1....1....T....3....3....T....T....T....T.....T....T 1970......2....2....2....2....2....3....5....5....5....4....4....6....6....5....5....5....4....3....3....5....6....6....5....4....4....3....2....2....1....T....T year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1969......0....0....t.....0....0....T....1....1....1....T....T....T.....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0 1968......3....3....3....3....2....4....4....4....4....4....4....3....3....2....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1967......1....1....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....1....0....T 1966......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....T....T....T....3....2....2....1....2....2....2....7....7 1965......0....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....0....8....8....5....3....3....3....8....7....6....5....4....3....3....1....3....2....2....2....2....1....1....1 1964......3....2....2....T....T.....T....0....0....0....0....0....1...13..13..12..11...9....6....5....3....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....0....T....T 1963......T....T....0.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....T....T....T....4....6....5....5....6....6 1962......2....1....1....1....T....T.....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....0....T....1....0 1961......T....T....T....T....T.....T.....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....1....3....3....T....6...13..13..12..11..11..11..14..14..14..12..10...9 1960......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....T....T.....3....2....2....1....T....0....t.....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1959......T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....t.....0....0....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....0....t.....T....1....1....T....0....0 1958......0....0....0....0....0....0....4....4....4....3....3....2....2....2....T....2....2....1....T....T....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0 1957......t.....0....0....0....0....T....1....0....T....T....0....0....t.....t.....2....4....3....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....1....T....2....T....T.....0.....t 1956......0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0 1955......0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....1....1....1....1....T....T....0....0....0....1....T....0....T....T....t......0....0....0....0 1954......t.....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....t.....3....7....8....6....5....5....5....4....4....4....3....1....T....T....T....T....T.....0....t.....0....t.....0 1953......3....2....T....0....t.....t.....2....2....T....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....T....0....0....t.....t.....t.....0....t.....0.....t 1952......0....0....0....T....t.....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t.....t.....0....t.....0....T....0....0....0....4....2....1....T 1951......0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....0....0....1....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....T....1....T....T....T....3 1950......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....t.....T....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....t.....0 year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..30..31 1949......4....3....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....4 1948.....14..11...8....7....7....7....7....6....5....4....4....3....5....4....3....3....4....5....5....4....4....4....4....9....9....9....8....8....7....7....7 1947......4....4....2....1....3....2....1....T....T....T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0 1946......0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....t.....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....1....2....T....T....2....T....0....t.....0....0....0....0 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………................................ streaks of seven days or more in January... 1947 from the 1st to the 7th... 1948 had snow cover all 31 days///the snow depth carried over from December and beyond January...there was 14" on the 1st..... 1954 had a streak from the 10th -21st... 1958 from the 7th to the 18th... 1961 from the 15th to 31st...14" on the 27th... 1964 from the 12th-20th...13" on the 13th.... 1965 from the 10th to the 31st... 1966 from the 23rd to 31st... 1968 from the 1st to the 14th... 1970 from the 1st to the 29th... 1971 from the 14th to the 22nd... 1974 from the 9th-19th... 1976 from the 20th-26th... 1977 from the 1st to 9th and again from the 14th to the 28th... 1978 from the 13th to the 25th...17" max depth on the 20th...heavy rain ended the streak... 1981 from the 3rd to the 20th... 1982 from the 13th to the 31st... 1983 with a little from the 15th-21st... 1984 from the 10th-27... 1985 from the 17th-25th... 1987 from the 19th-31st...12" max depth on the 23rd... 1988 from the 2nd to the 18th... 1994 from the 3rd to the 21st... 1996 from the 3rd to the 19th...31" max depth on the 9th... 2000 from the 20th to the 31st... 2001 from the 1st to the 14th...10" max depth on the 1st... 2004 from the 14th to the 31st... 2005 from the 19th to 31st...11" max depth on the 23rd... 2011 from the 7th to the 31st.....est. 22" max depth 22nd... 2014 from the 21st to 31st...10" max on the 21st... 2015 from the 24th-31st... 2016 from the 23rd to 31st...est. 24" max on the 23rd... 2018 from the 4th-11th... 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Rtd208 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Raining pretty good here. Picked up 0.48" of rain so far today. Current temp 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 If you like to follow close calls: GFS 18Z 13" Cobb Snow Method is 16", a quick hitter. CMC 12Z 5" EURO 12Z is Zippo, however. Jan. 08-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Hey Don, I wanted to see how many of the smaller less well predicted storms of the 80s and 90s I could remember...could you possibly increase the list down to the 6"+ storms or even 4"+ and one where such amounts were reached or exceeded at any of the local airports too? Thanks! @LibertyBell, I have created a quick table for the 6" or greater snowstorms for the NYC area locations. JFK had no snow data until 1959. The table can be found at: https://public.tableau.com/profile/don.sutherland#!/vizhome/NYCArea6Snowstorms/Dashboard1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: @LibertyBell, I have created a quick table for the 6" or greater snowstorms for the NYC area locations. JFK had no snow data until 1959. The table can be found at: https://public.tableau.com/profile/don.sutherland#!/vizhome/NYCArea6Snowstorms/Dashboard1 Awesome Don 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 3 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said: Very little snow during the 1980's Jan is a myth that's been tossed around here & back when there was a pulse in the Philly forum. The reality is the 80's Jan were very good overall at Newark, Allentown & Philadelphia. At all 3 locations that was the 2nd snowiest decade on record during the month of Jan, most impressive for Philly with the long period of record. As for NYC during the 1980's Jan was slightly snowier than the period of record mean & median however since the 1930's it's in the top 3 outproducing 6 other decades. The long term Jan average at NYC is 7.8", 6 out of the 10 Jan's during the 1980's were above average. From a decade standpoint during Jan the 1950's are far & away the benchmark for pathetic snowfall. Memories get mixed up. January's averaged cold and January snowfall departures didn't quite match up with the temps. After cold Januarys, a lot of the following Februarys were no-shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Fair amount of glaze outside that I did not anticipate. Pine bows are weighed down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Picked up 0.63" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: If you like to follow close calls: GFS 18Z 13" Cobb Snow Method is 16", a quick hitter. CMC 12Z 5" EURO 12Z is Zippo, however. Jan. 08-09. If you like to follow inconsistent models look what happened to the above "event" at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: If you like to follow inconsistent models look what happened to the above "event" at 0Z Yep every model has been changing every run. Gefs is has members further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Gefs for the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 38degs.(34/42). Making it 33degs., or just Normal. No snow on the 9th anymore----now it's the 13th. Have fun. 39*(95%RH) here at 6am(Fog 1mi.) Cleared up by 8am. Already 47* by 10:30am. Mixed clouds/sun, breezy 50* but Noon. 51* at 1pm. 41* by 8pm. 39* by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 No topics posting from myself for the 11th, or mid month event potential til we move at least beyond the Sunday-Monday Jan 3-4 event and have read the 8th-9th potential seemingly correct. Nice pattern but marginal thermal profiles continue til at least mid-month as others have noted. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 You know that the Pacific is dominating when NYC is struggling to get below freezing during the first week of January. The average low temperature in NYC during the first week of January is 27°. Today looks like the warmest high coming up into the 50s. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/02/2021 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07| FRI 08| SAT 09 CLIMO X/N 50s/ 36 43| 37 46| 36 43| 34 45| 33 44| 33 44| 35 44 27 38 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 13 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said: Very little snow during the 1980's Jan is a myth that's been tossed around here & back when there was a pulse in the Philly forum. The reality is the 80's Jan were very good overall at Newark, Allentown & Philadelphia. At all 3 locations that was the 2nd snowiest decade on record during the month of Jan, most impressive for Philly with the long period of record. As for NYC during the 1980's Jan was slightly snowier than the period of record mean & median however since the 1930's it's in the top 3 outproducing 6 other decades. The long term Jan average at NYC is 7.8", 6 out of the 10 Jan's during the 1980's were above average. From a decade standpoint during Jan the 1950's are far & away the benchmark for pathetic snowfall. It's not a myth here....I have a standard that I measure snowy months by and above and beyond everything else, it means number of double digit snowfalls. And January in the 80s had zip zero zilch nada double digit snowfalls here after 1982 (the only double digit January snowfall that I can remember was January 1982) and lots of events that were suppressed to our south or that cut. I was in Brooklyn or the south shore of Nassau County during the 80s (1980-1982 Brooklyn, 1983 and beyond in southern Nassau.) Our new warmer climate has actually meant much more exciting Januarys with bigger snowstorms. Having lived throughJanuarys during the 80s, they were much colder, but also dull and boring with lots of little 1-2 inch events and an outlier 4" event here and there. Even the so-called "exciting" events like Jan 1987 and 1988 didn't hit double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 13 hours ago, bluewave said: The biggest recent disappointment for many came with the January 2015 blizzard shift to the east during the very +AO/+NAO. That was probably the snowiest winter for NYC when one of the lasting memories was such a high profile model error. The biggest recent NYC snowstorms were mostly Atlantic blocking driven rather than Pacific. But I don’t anyone would have predicted so much snow in NYC during such a +AO/ +NAO winter. I don’t even think the Boston crew believed during that fall that they could have had such a snowy winter solely driven by Pacific blocking But it's interesting that it wasn't a disappointment for the coast..... with a +NAO you'd expect a storm to cut and favor the interior yet in that case eastern LI was buried with over 20 inches of snow in Jan 2015! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 12 hours ago, bluewave said: That may go to the cold suppression theme during the 1980s. Some our our greatest January Arctic outbreaks occurred during the 1980s. So being a little further south may have benefitted Philly. The 1987 El Niño also favored areas of Central NJ with the slightly further storm track. Thats correct, having lived through those Januarys they were dull and boring compared to what we have in our new warmer climate. Lots of minor events and extreme cold. No school closings so lots of unfun walking in -30 wind chills and slippery annoying conditions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: @LibertyBell, I have created a quick table for the 6" or greater snowstorms for the NYC area locations. JFK had no snow data until 1959. The table can be found at: https://public.tableau.com/profile/don.sutherland#!/vizhome/NYCArea6Snowstorms/Dashboard1 Thanks so much, Don! That was quick work! And AO/PNA data is included! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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