January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[EasternLI]

14 hours ago, EasternLI said:

End of the eps seems pretty phenomenal. 

00Z same time period. Looking good. 

[bluewave]

We will have to deal with a very mild start to January before we can get to the retrograding -AO block and Pacific improvement by mid-January. Looks like we are close to a new all-time lowest pressure near Alaska. So my guess is that the early part of January will represent the peak +EPO. The hope is that the -AO retrogression will allow the EPO to back off enough for more ridging  to build over Western North America and more +PNA. Every model group shows this scenario so it looks like it could really happen. So we’ll just have to watch for the 11-15 means to make it to day 7 for verification and forecast purposes.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

00Z same time period. Looking good. 

This is what we need to get the ball rolling. 

[MJO812]

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We will have to deal with a very mild start to January before we can get to the retrograding -AO block and Pacific improvement by mid-January. Looks like we are close to a new all-time lowest pressure near Alaska. So my guess is that the early part of January will represent the peak +EPO. The hope is that the -AO retrogression will allow the EPO to back off enough for more ridging  to build over Western North America and more +PNA. Every model group shows this scenario so it looks like it could really happen. So we’ll just have to watch for the 11-15 means to make it to day 7 for verification and forecast purposes.

How long before we see a sub 900mb monster "Cat 5" low in the Arctic regions?

 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

fyi I went through the list of the late 80s and early 90s winters and what it proved to me is even in the worst so-called "patterns" this area has EVER had we somehow still managed to score 6-9 inch snowfalls....and if you correct that for higher precip totals we now see in our new climate, it explains why we've been seeing such high intensity precip bombs for the last 10 years or so.  Add to that that it doesn't have to be below normal temp to get big snowstorms here during the most favored period for snow, mid January onwards (some of the aforementioned snowstorms had temps in the 50s and 60s the day prior to the event and again right afterwards- I'm perfectly happy with that!), then it doesn't really matter what the long term so called "pattern" is.  Also I honestly dont give a shit if the entire winter averages 40 degrees or higher, all that matters is that it's in the low 30s when a big storm comes in.  We dont judge winters here by cold, we judge them by inches of snow.  We already had one decent event and one more will get us to average snowfall for the entire winter and that's a lot more than me and many of us were thinking at the start of the season.

It’s an interesting conversation about the right temperatures leading up to a 6”+ or 12”+ event in NYC in our warmer climate. The key seems to be what the low temperatures are doing in the days before or during the event. While we can have highs in the 50s or even 60s right before the storm, we need at least a few days with lows getting into at least the mid 20s or colder. I think getting the lows into at least the mid 20s before or during storm time tells us there is cold enough air supply nearby to be drawn into the developing low. This is when we get favorable storm day teleconnections and storm track and evolution. I added some of our milder events surrounding storms in recent years for illustration purposes in NYC. The cold for the December storm came with the arrival of the event.

2017-02-01	47	33	40.0	6.8	25	0	0.00	0.0	T
2017-02-02	45	32	38.5	5.2	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-02-03	33	26	29.5	-3.9	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-02-04	34	22	28.0	-5.5	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-02-05	43	31	37.0	3.3	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-02-06	49	36	42.5	8.7	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-02-07	42	36	39.0	5.1	26	0	0.27	0.0	0
2017-02-08	62	38	50.0	15.9	15	0	0.03	0.0	0
2017-02-09	44	19	31.5	-2.7	33	0	1.16	9.4	2
2017-02-10	32	19	25.5	-8.9	39	0	T	T	8
2017-02-11	48	30	39.0	4.5	26	0	0.00	0.0	5
2017-02-12	40	30	35.0	0.3	30	0	0.46	T	2

 

2017-01-04	52	34	43.0	10.0	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-01-05	34	27	30.5	-2.4	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-01-06	33	25	29.0	-3.8	36	0	0.05	1.2	1
2017-01-07	26	20	23.0	-9.7	42	0	0.32	5.1	T
2017-01-08	25	16	20.5	-12.1	44	0	0.00	0.0	4
2017-01-09	23	14	18.5	-14.0	46	0	0.00	0.0	3
2017-01-10	46	21	33.5	1.1	31	0	0.00	0.0	3
2017-01-11	52	42	47.0	14.6	18	0	0.52	0.0	0
2017-01-12	66	47	56.5	24.2	8	0	0.05	0.0	0
2017-01-13	62	32	47.0	14.7	18	0	0.00	0.0	0

 

2016-01-10	59	40	49.5	17.1	15	0	1.80	0.0	0
2016-01-11	40	26	33.0	0.6	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2016-01-12	44	25	34.5	2.2	30	0	0.00	T	0
2016-01-13	30	22	26.0	-6.3	39	0	0.00	0.0	0
2016-01-14	38	22	30.0	-2.3	35	0	0.00	T	0
2016-01-15	51	34	42.5	10.2	22	0	T	0.0	0
2016-01-16	52	42	47.0	14.8	18	0	0.24	0.0	0
2016-01-17	42	30	36.0	3.8	29	0	0.05	0.4	0
2016-01-18	31	18	24.5	-7.8	40	0	T	T	T
2016-01-19	28	16	22.0	-10.3	43	0	0.00	0.0	T
2016-01-20	37	27	32.0	-0.3	33	0	0.00	0.0	T
2016-01-21	36	26	31.0	-1.3	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2016-01-22	30	21	25.5	-6.9	39	0	0.01	0.2	0
2016-01-23	27	24	25.5	-6.9	39	0	2.31	27.3	6
2016-01-24	35	20	27.5	-5.0	37	0	T	T	22

 

2018-03-17	48	27	37.5	-5.1	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-18	43	28	35.5	-7.4	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-19	47	33	40.0	-3.2	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-20	39	30	34.5	-9.1	30	0	T	0.0	0
2018-03-21	39	31	35.0	-8.9	30	0	0.99	8.2	0
2018-03-22	50	32	41.0	-3.2	24	0	0.06	0.2	8

 

2020-12-13	62	47	54.5	16.3	10	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-12-14	47	35	41.0	3.1	24	0	0.26	T	0
2020-12-15	39	30	34.5	-3.0	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-12-16	31	24	27.5	-9.7	37	0	0.86	6.5	0
2020-12-17	33	24	28.5	-8.4	36	0	0.66	4.0	9

 

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s an interesting conversation about the right temperatures leading up to a 6”+ or 12”+ event in NYC in our warmer climate. The key seems to be what the low temperatures are doing in the days before or during the event. While we can have highs in the 50s or even 60s right before the storm, we need at least a few days with lows getting into at least the mid 20s or colder. I think getting the lows into at least the mid 20s before or during storm time tells us there is cold enough air supply nearby to be drawn into the developing low. This is when we get favorable storm day teleconnections and storm track and evolution. I added some of our milder events surrounding storms in recent years for illustration purposes in NYC. The cold for the December storm came with the arrival of the event.

2017-02-01	47	33	40.0	6.8	25	0	0.00	0.0	T
2017-02-02	45	32	38.5	5.2	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-02-03	33	26	29.5	-3.9	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-02-04	34	22	28.0	-5.5	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-02-05	43	31	37.0	3.3	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-02-06	49	36	42.5	8.7	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-02-07	42	36	39.0	5.1	26	0	0.27	0.0	0
2017-02-08	62	38	50.0	15.9	15	0	0.03	0.0	0
2017-02-09	44	19	31.5	-2.7	33	0	1.16	9.4	2
2017-02-10	32	19	25.5	-8.9	39	0	T	T	8
2017-02-11	48	30	39.0	4.5	26	0	0.00	0.0	5
2017-02-12	40	30	35.0	0.3	30	0	0.46	T	2

 

2017-01-04	52	34	43.0	10.0	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-01-05	34	27	30.5	-2.4	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2017-01-06	33	25	29.0	-3.8	36	0	0.05	1.2	1
2017-01-07	26	20	23.0	-9.7	42	0	0.32	5.1	T
2017-01-08	25	16	20.5	-12.1	44	0	0.00	0.0	4
2017-01-09	23	14	18.5	-14.0	46	0	0.00	0.0	3
2017-01-10	46	21	33.5	1.1	31	0	0.00	0.0	3
2017-01-11	52	42	47.0	14.6	18	0	0.52	0.0	0
2017-01-12	66	47	56.5	24.2	8	0	0.05	0.0	0
2017-01-13	62	32	47.0	14.7	18	0	0.00	0.0	0

 

2016-01-10	59	40	49.5	17.1	15	0	1.80	0.0	0
2016-01-11	40	26	33.0	0.6	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2016-01-12	44	25	34.5	2.2	30	0	0.00	T	0
2016-01-13	30	22	26.0	-6.3	39	0	0.00	0.0	0
2016-01-14	38	22	30.0	-2.3	35	0	0.00	T	0
2016-01-15	51	34	42.5	10.2	22	0	T	0.0	0
2016-01-16	52	42	47.0	14.8	18	0	0.24	0.0	0
2016-01-17	42	30	36.0	3.8	29	0	0.05	0.4	0
2016-01-18	31	18	24.5	-7.8	40	0	T	T	T
2016-01-19	28	16	22.0	-10.3	43	0	0.00	0.0	T
2016-01-20	37	27	32.0	-0.3	33	0	0.00	0.0	T
2016-01-21	36	26	31.0	-1.3	34	0	0.00	0.0	0
2016-01-22	30	21	25.5	-6.9	39	0	0.01	0.2	0
2016-01-23	27	24	25.5	-6.9	39	0	2.31	27.3	6
2016-01-24	35	20	27.5	-5.0	37	0	T	T	22

 

2018-03-17	48	27	37.5	-5.1	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-18	43	28	35.5	-7.4	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-19	47	33	40.0	-3.2	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-20	39	30	34.5	-9.1	30	0	T	0.0	0
2018-03-21	39	31	35.0	-8.9	30	0	0.99	8.2	0
2018-03-22	50	32	41.0	-3.2	24	0	0.06	0.2	8

 

2020-12-13	62	47	54.5	16.3	10	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-12-14	47	35	41.0	3.1	24	0	0.26	T	0
2020-12-15	39	30	34.5	-3.0	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-12-16	31	24	27.5	-9.7	37	0	0.86	6.5	0
2020-12-17	33	24	28.5	-8.4	36	0	0.66	4.0	9

 

 

I so clearly remember this- I think the first time I realized its importance was before the storm in April 1996.  If you remember Chris, we had an intense night of radiational cooling here on Long Island the night before the big storm and clouds started moving in just at daybreak, which was ideal in limiting the warmth of the sun while maximizing the radiational cooling that occured the night before the storm.  I noticed that the storm was snow right from the outset here on the south shore of Nassau County with temps in the mid 30s and the rain/snow line stayed well south of us through the entire event and as the snow got heavier around 4 PM in the afternoon the skies got darker and the temps started to drop and the snow even started to stick to the roads before the sun set.

 

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I so clearly remember this- I think the first time I realized its importance was before the storm in April 1996.  If you remember Chris, we had an intense night of radiational cooling here on Long Island the night before the big storm and clouds started moving in just at daybreak, which was ideal in limiting the warmth of the sun while maximizing the radiational cooling that occured the night before the storm.  I noticed that the storm was snow right from the outset here on the south shore of Nassau County with temps in the mid 30s and the rain/snow line stayed well south of us through the entire event and as the snow got heavier around 4 PM in the afternoon the skies got darker and the temps started to drop and the snow even started to stick to the roads before the sun set.

 

My favorite recent late season event was 3-22-18. Portions of the South shore  of Suffolk came in at close to 20”. But you can see those mid 20s lows  a few days before the storm.

ISP

2018-03-17	47	25	36.0	-3.4	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-18	40	25	32.5	-7.2	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-19	43	24	33.5	-6.5	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-20	37	26	31.5	-8.8	33	0	T	T	0
2018-03-21	38	32	35.0	-5.6	30	0	1.70	14.9	0
2018-03-22	47	32	39.5	-1.5	25	0	0.26	3.5	18

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My favorite recent late season event was 3-22-18. Portions of the South shore  of Suffolk came in at close to 20”. But you can see those mid 20s lows  a few days before the storm.

ISP

2018-03-17	47	25	36.0	-3.4	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-18	40	25	32.5	-7.2	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-19	43	24	33.5	-6.5	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
2018-03-20	37	26	31.5	-8.8	33	0	T	T	0
2018-03-21	38	32	35.0	-5.6	30	0	1.70	14.9	0
2018-03-22	47	32	39.5	-1.5	25	0	0.26	3.5	18

 

And that was a nice long duration storm!  What was the reason NYC couldn't break their late season curse of not getting 10" events after February?  That has been going on since 1993.  Is it because the urban heat island makes it much more difficult to get late season big events because of the much higher sun angle? They weirdly didn't get much in April 1996 either while JFK had 5".

 

[MJO812]

Weenie storm on the gfs for mid month. The power of blocking lol

[bluewave]

On 12/29/2020 at 6:03 PM, lee59 said:

924 mb - or 27.29 inches of mercury. Incredible low pressure.

31	06:58	SE 35 G 41	7.00	Overcast and Windy	BKN006 OVC011	35	34			97%	21	NA	27.42	928.9
31	05:58	SE 39 G 52	5.00	Light Snow Fog/Mist and Windy	SCT009 OVC015	35	34			97%	20	NA	27.48	930.9
31	04:58	SE 44 G 54	5.00	Light Snow Fog/Mist and Windy	FEW011 OVC017	35	34			94%	19	NA	27.57	934.0
31	03:58	SE 44 G 52	7.00	Mostly Cloudy and Windy	BKN024 BKN033	36	33			90%	21	NA	27.65	936.7
31	02:58	SE 44 G 51	7.00	Mostly Cloudy and Windy	FEW027 SCT049 BKN055 BKN070	35	35			99%	19	NA	27.72	939.0
31	01:58	E 44 G 61	3.00	Light Snow Fog/Mist and Windy	BKN007 OVC012	33	33	33	31	99%	17	NA	27.80	941.8
31	00:58	E 54 G 70	2.50	Light Snow Fog/Mist and Windy	BKN008	32	32			99%	14	NA	27.93	946.2
30	23:58	E 60 G 74	2.00	Light Snow Fog/Mist and Windy	FEW006	32	32			100%	13	NA	28.06	950.6
30	22:58	E 61 G 83	0.75	Rain Fog/Mist and Windy	VV002	32	30			93%	13	NA	28.23	956.3
30	21:58	E 52 G 71	0.63	Rain Fog/Mist and Windy	VV001	31	31			99%	13	NA	28.39	961.8

https://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/PASY.html

 

[Allsnow]

Don’t disagree with @bluewave. We might be on the doorsteps on a active winter period starting around mid month. Patience will be needed as the block and pac become more favorable 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Don’t disagree with @bluewave. We might be on the doorsteps on a active winter period starting around mid month. Patience will be needed as the block and pac become more favorable 

It may even be just slightly after mid-month but I agree with you guys. We definitely need a favorable PAC side, period, or we will have issues. Then the question becomes do we go into a classic canonical La Niña February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the maritime continent? We’ll have a better idea around mid-month, I think

[Stormlover74]

It's scary that a year ago on this day we were having almost the same conversation. Alot of people thought late Jan and Feb were going to rock

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Don’t disagree with @bluewave. We might be on the doorsteps on a active winter period starting around mid month. Patience will be needed as the block and pac become more favorable 

Gotta wade through the mud to find the goldmine. Tomorrow’s event will come and go, and Sunday-Monday hinges on a marginal airmass, but I can’t wait to see what happens mid-month. Up here we made it to roughly 1/3 of what we had last year from the 16th/17th (36 inches which was roughly 25-30 below average) and here’s to hoping we can cover our totals from last year (if at all possible) by then.

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's scary that a year ago on this day we were having almost the same conversation. Alot of people thought late Jan and Feb were going to rock

This year and the previous winter are completely different. The vortex and mjo forcing ended our winter last year. This year the vortex is getting obliterated and we have blocking. I get what you’re saying but this has Merit IMO. 

[Allsnow]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It may even be just slightly after mid-month but I agree with you guys. We definitely need a favorable PAC side, period, or we will have issues. Then the question becomes do we go into a classic canonical La Niña February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the maritime continent? We’ll have a better idea around mid-month, I think

I think canonical Niña February is in trouble because of the ssw and this not acting like a nina

[Allsnow]

35 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Gotta wade through the mud to find the goldmine. Tomorrow’s event will come and go, and Sunday-Monday hinges on a marginal airmass, but I can’t wait to see what happens mid-month. Up here we made it to roughly 1/3 of what we had last year from the 16th/17th (36 inches which was roughly 25-30 below average) and here’s to hoping we can cover our totals from last year (if at all possible) by then.

You will be fine in the snow department. You live in a great area and the pattern favors you the next two weeks

[MJO812]

Nice snowstorm next weekend on the euro

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice snowstorm next weekend on the euro

Encouraging signs if you want snow before the 10th on the guidance today 

[forkyfork]

looks like marginal slop to me

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Encouraging signs if you want snow before the 10th on the guidance today 

Eps is beautiful 

This block looks legit 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looks like marginal slop to me

LOL

Trolling just like the 17th storm?

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It may even be just slightly after mid-month but I agree with you guys. We definitely need a favorable PAC side, period, or we will have issues. Then the question becomes do we go into a classic canonical La Niña February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the maritime continent? We’ll have a better idea around mid-month, I think

Even if we do it might not matter much of the NAO stays strongly negative along with the AO.  It would probably still be a pattern where something could occur 

[Stormlover74]

 

[SnoSki14]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is beautiful 

This block looks legit 

It's actually been trending more favorably too. 

We might not have to wait till mid month for something.

[CIK62]

This does not look pretty yet for any of the 48, even by a 5-Day January 13th. midpoint.          12Z GFS itself is averaging 39degs. (35/42), or +6 for the first 16 days of January and getting better----how could  it get worse? .     Snow on the 13th???      Anyone know why the spread is continuously just 7 degrees between the H/L each run.      I thought it was 12 degrees during early January [say 27/39], but it keeps coming up tighter than that.

btw:  AccuWeather feels the Arctic cold won't come here till very late January, maybe never.      First Western Europe then Northeastern Europe and then maybe here.       Do we get a washed up PV, finishing up its long playing career here?

[MJO812]

Weeklies look great moving forward.  Negative-NAO right into week 4. Improving pacific. 

[Heisy]

20 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

This does not look pretty yet for any of the 48, even by a 5-Day January 13th. midpoint.          12Z GFS itself is averaging 39degs. (35/42), or +6 for the first 16 days of January and getting better----how could  it get worse? .     Snow on the 13th???      Anyone know why the spread is continuously just 7 degrees between the H/L each run.      I thought it was 12 degrees during early January [say 27/39], but it keeps coming up tighter than that.

btw:  AccuWeather feels the Arctic cold won't come here till very late January, maybe never.      First Western Europe then Northeastern Europe and then maybe here.       Do we get a washed up PV, finishing up its long playing career here?

Atlantic blocking patterns aren’t usually sustained cold. We can still get plenty of snow with normal or above temps. In fact it seems these days we get snow then warm up wash and repeat. Wouldn’t worry about temps. Today we’re seeing models start to give us some scenarios where we benefit from well timed blocking and confluence

[Allsnow]

33 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

This does not look pretty yet for any of the 48, even by a 5-Day January 13th. midpoint.          12Z GFS itself is averaging 39degs. (35/42), or +6 for the first 16 days of January and getting better----how could  it get worse? .     Snow on the 13th???      Anyone know why the spread is continuously just 7 degrees between the H/L each run.      I thought it was 12 degrees during early January [say 27/39], but it keeps coming up tighter than that.

btw:  AccuWeather feels the Arctic cold won't come here till very late January, maybe never.      First Western Europe then Northeastern Europe and then maybe here.       Do we get a washed up PV, finishing up its long playing career here?

That’s a blocking pattern with lower hgts south of it. We won’t get artic cold until the end of January IMO. Once the pac improves it’s going to be off to the races snow wise