January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Makes sense that a really amped up solution would be warm at the coast with such an unfavorable Pacific. The closed low went north of us this run. We needed a perfect thread the needle UL track and storm spacing to get at least a change to snow after such a mild start to the storm.

we are still early in the game - there has been no model consistency with this system and the late week system will help determine what exactly happens with the follow up system.........and the 1st  late week  system is still days away.......

[MJO812]

Massive block on the Euro in the long range

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Massive block on the Euro in the long range

if you are talking long range up to 10 days here is the snowfall result:

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

if you are talking long range up to 10 days here is the snowfall result:

Who cares what the precip maps show. Euro shows a massive block. Check the euro maps.

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Massive block on the Euro in the long range

no cold air though.   Great block though.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

no cold air though.   Great block though.

Yea we really need help from the epo or pna.

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, it’s not a true block. Those red colors are from the pac puke invading Canada. 

Good post. Horrible PAC side with the block trapping the garbage. Not the results you want to see. I don’t care what Eric Webb says, he’s the same guy who arrogantly forecasted massive, historic -EPO blocking for this month back in November, which obviously has been a monumental bust. 

 

[wdrag]

Starting a topic by 3P for late Jan 2-early Jan 4.  Just need a little time. Looks like it will happen despite GFSV16 dropping it in recent cycles. EC has been on it for 3 successive cycles and EPS now throwing out decent qpf and a bit of snowfall all the way down to LI (questionable but could occur late in the storm and not be much...but??).  NAEFS has it a little and the fact that the 12z/29 GGEM lit into it, also the 12z/29 UK, should be enough for us to give it a good chance to produce snow down to at least the I84 corridor. Walt 220P/29

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

There's some sort of cruel and dark weenie humor here if Central Park manages to record an inch of snow just a few days outside of December. Just missing the mark to have a 30 inch average snowfall for the 30 year period. lol

I'd be content with rounding 29.9" (29.96"?)" to 30".   Splitting hairs at this point (almost literally... 1/25th of an inch).

On a slight tangent ... Media will cite whatever number suits them depending on the point they want to make and another inch of snow in December 2020 won't change that.

[CIK62]

The first two weeks of January on the 12Z GFS are still averaging 41degs.(36/45), or +8.          There is no snow showing. ***      There is only one day with a Low of 32degs. or greater showing.

***GFS,CMC, and now the EURO are 0" on Jan. 03-04.

W/O a helpful SSWE we could resurrect last January's  blog listings and not realize the secret.  

Of course the Polar Vortex last January was concentric and tight over the N.P.         This January we could have many blobs of Arctic air floating around.       That is the theory at least.

[Nibor]

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'd be content with rounding 29.9" (29.96"?)" to 30".   Splitting hairs at this point (almost literally... 1/25th of an inch).

On a slight tangent ... Media will cite whatever number suits them depending on the point they want to make and another inch of snow in December 2020 won't change that.

Fair point. There's also been some questionable measurements over that time spawn as well...

[Eduardo]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The good news is that the benchmark storm tracks are making a comeback. Even if this turns out warm like December 5th, we still got one on the 16th that produced  4-6” South Shore sections to 6-12”just inland from the immediate coast. If the strat warming works out and the raging +EPO relaxes a bit, then even coastal sections could eventually see a 12”+ event this winter.

This times 10!  If that upcoming block is real, even slight PAC improvement will put us in business!  Need to tamp down that raging +EPO though.  Hopefully that crazy sub-920mb NPAC storm on the EURO comes to pass and scrambles up the PAC side a bit.

There's decent potential in this pattern.  Nothing like the doom and gloom of last year.

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Warm

Good for inland SNE 

Looks like a similar track to the Dec 17 event but much less cold air in place.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Agree 100%. It would need to be the definition of thread the needle for the metro area to get snow. The airmass is putrid, the wave spacing isn’t that great and yea, the PAC sucks

The PAC is straight trash for this system and will continue to be straight trash for the next 2-3 weeks.  People really need to keep their expectations in check.   

A well-timed PNA spike would do wonders so we'll see. 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Good post. Horrible PAC side with the block trapping the garbage. Not the results you want to see. I don’t care what Eric Webb says, he’s the same guy who arrogantly forecasted massive, historic -EPO blocking for this month back in November, which obviously has been a monumental bust. 

 

 

Saw Ryan's tweet yesterday.   We know the answer to this.  Just don't tell metsfan. 

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Saw Ryan's tweet yesterday.   We know the answer to this.  Just don't tell metsfan. 

Weenies dreaming of sugar plums 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

 

Saw Ryan's tweet yesterday.   We know the answer to this.  Just don't tell metsfan. 

Ready to rock in mid January?

[Rjay]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Ready to rock in mid January?

If the pac doesn't look like trash, sure.  

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ready to rock in mid January?

Just 17 short days away....

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Eduardo said:

This times 10!  If that upcoming block is real, even slight PAC improvement will put us in business!  Need to tamp down that raging +EPO though.  Hopefully that crazy sub-920mb NPAC storm on the EURO comes to pass and scrambles up the PAC side a bit.

There's decent potential in this pattern.  Nothing like the doom and gloom of last year.

It will be interesting to see if the Bering Sea low can break the all-time record. The last January with a NW PAC low  with a 932 mb pressure or lower was 2013. That also occurred around the time of a SSW. It will be interesting to see if the weeklies are correct about the -NAO retrogression and EPO improvement by mid-January.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/bering-sea-superstorm-bottoms-out-at-924-mb.html

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

JAN 2013

7-Jan-13

6-Jan-13

7-Jan-13

6-Jan-13

N

E

 

 

 

 

 

[lee59]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the Bering Sea low can break the all-time record. That last time the NW PAC intense low there in January was back in 2013. That also occurred around the time of a SSW. It will be interesting to see if the weeklies are correct about the -NAO retrogression and EPO improvement by mid-January.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/bering-sea-superstorm-bottoms-out-at-924-mb.html

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

JAN 2013

7-Jan-13

6-Jan-13

7-Jan-13

6-Jan-13

N

E

 

 

 

 

 

924 mb - or 27.29 inches of mercury. Incredible low pressure.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Who cares what the precip maps show. Euro shows a massive block. Check the euro maps.

Play the long game man, history has shown us that our best storms happen in the second half of January.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

If the pac doesn't look like trash, sure.  

Maybe we need to start dumping more plastic trash into the Pacific,

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The good news is that the benchmark storm tracks are making a comeback. Even if this turns out warm like December 5th, we still got one on the 16th that produced  4-6” South Shore sections to 6-12”just inland from the immediate coast. If the strat warming works out and the raging +EPO relaxes a bit, then even coastal sections could eventually see a 12”+ event this winter.

hey now western parts of the south shore saw 8" with that.

if this historic Bering Sea storm happens that could be what's needed to flip the pattern.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Ready to rock in mid January?

Historically, it's the Jan 20-27 period that seems to be when many of our big snowstorms have occurred.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

2) is definitely right because history has shown us that over and over again.  

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Nibor said:

There's some sort of cruel and dark weenie humor here if Central Park manages to record an inch of snow just a few days outside of December. Just missing the mark to have a 30 inch average snowfall for the 30 year period. lol

it's crazy to hold to those numbers since snowfall measuring is so unscientific. we should just accept 29.5 and higher as 30" and call it a day.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'd be content with rounding 29.9" (29.96"?)" to 30".   Splitting hairs at this point (almost literally... 1/25th of an inch).

On a slight tangent ... Media will cite whatever number suits them depending on the point they want to make and another inch of snow in December 2020 won't change that.

yeah it's ludicrous especially with all the events undermeasured there-- let's start with Jan 1996.....

it's 30 inches plain and simple if not more, let's just admit it and move on.

 

[Allsnow]

 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Allsnow said:

 

But will it actually lead to anything is the question.