Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 4 more days of trending, Solid event maybe even to your area Sucks we lose the 4th. I liked that one. Pray for a north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Nah mostly a GFS reference how some say its too warm and others too cold. Carry on wx forecasting might be the toughest job in these situations. I get to light the fuse and run on Thursday afternoon, so it won't be my problem. Ensemble sensitivity shows a tough pattern. It could be interpreted as both a position error (mainly due to timing) or a strength error (in the vicinity of CHH). Gut feeling is that if you lower the pressure significantly near CHH, you lock the cold across the interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: CMC seems to have recovered from whatever happened to it last night. It had another bad spell last night, Its had many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Back of my mind is Jerrys Los Angeles rule. Heavy rain in LA in winter 4 days later snowstorm in New England @weathafella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, OceanStWx said: I get to light the fuse and run on Thursday afternoon, so it won't be my problem. Ensemble sensitivity shows a tough pattern. It could be interpreted as both a position error (mainly due to timing) or a strength error (in the vicinity of CHH). Gut feeling is that if you lower the pressure significantly near CHH, you lock the cold across the interior. Don't start something you can't finish............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: It had another bad spell last night, Its had many. At least the Philly crew isn't here to tell us this storm needs to fizzle so they can track one down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: At least the Philly crew isn't here to tell us this storm needs to fizzle so they can track one down there. Yeah, on the 3rd or 4th no less, I saw that and wanted to tell them to GTFO but was nice about it this time............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: One of the best posts of 2020! We have heard that for 15 years lol. The thick skinned ones never leave. If you dish it out you better take it. Big boy and girls stay and fight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 CMC has the best look for the northern tier. Basically all snow, the low passes south of us. Too bad it's the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 If we lose the high pressure to the N .. game over. It's a bit unusual to be 4.5 days out and still needing to iron out the larger scaled synoptic/governing features, but such is life in a fast and flat furious Pac dominated flow. I mean, relaying waves off the open expanse of the assimilated lands of dragons and wizards and in a velocity rich hemisphere, the shortening of the typical 3-day window is reducing to just 2 days to make up one's mind. Lord! ...thank that agency for the better assimilation techniques or this would be bad night at Vegas But, this GFS run is moving the erstwhile high pressure that was N of Maine on guidance yesterday, more to NE of Maine by early Friday, ...and we'll still probably have generated a tuck jet/on-going from the present run's configuration, but any more longitude with that +PP and said jet starts weakening and we go the in situ route and use up cold fast. Thing is... it's still unusual for lows to defeat planetary jet constructs/confluence across S-SE Canada... and that is what this is doing.. It's phasing the roll-out S/W ridging from the vestigial S /stream as it rides up the ridge, with the NVA/ ... and that's like engineering how to do the unlikely - f'n model.. .I swear sometimes I wonder if the modelers purposefully parameterize the GFS to run and prove quantum mechanic outre realm of duality - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: We have heard that for 15 years lol. The thick skinned ones never leave. If you dish it out you better take it. Big boy and girls stay and fight Now this is the best post of 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: CMC has the best look for the northern tier. Basically all snow, the low passes south of us. Too bad it's the CMC. You are Gold kid. Enjoy, great news for the mountains winter sport enthusiasts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Canadian also seems pretty good with where the ice and snow I envision would be. Hopefully some decent snows up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 38 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You guys should find common ground by talking about how much snow I will get. LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Is the Ukie passed out drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sucks we lose the 4th. I liked that one. Pray for a north trend Let’s lay down a thick mantle of ice and snow NYD and we can work on the north trend next week. This will snow down to the coast by the time it’s done trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe Ray for once will benefit with latitude. Might be some snow to start. I'm overjoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Euro is colder up here. Best run yet from that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: We have heard that for 15 years lol. The thick skinned ones never leave. If you dish it out you better take it. Big boy and girls stay and fight But why does it have to be that way? That the thick skinned one stay? I don’t understand your reasoning. THere are lots of good Mets who probably don’t post here for that reason.. #allmetsmatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Here it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Euro still pretty meh in the icing in SNE. Maybe some glaze near Dave? It’s warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Here it comes Near 60F down there on Saturday on the Euro. I'm kinda jealous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm overjoyed. It will be awesome! You are going to double or triple the half inch I might get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 I'm not sure what my opinion of V16 is ... I've heard some floated rumors that it's verification/scoring is besting the current operational variant - as well as other models too.. But where? What sigma level/metrics ?? ...I mean, is through the whole troposphere ...? or just in the 500 mb ongoing cinema - I will say I like the 12z V16's entrenched cold look as being more realistic for just knowing how cold air is heavier and any positive soundings will tend to stay that way - duh... That looks like brief snow to bee-bees and glazing in interior SNE probably down into N CT ... and looking at the meso-beta low down there near CHH/Cape.. combined with a clear dam in the PP NW of there.. .that thing is going to end that way, too - period. Seems we go through this doubt shit every time this sets up ... It's really no different in/when wondering if that BD in April is actually going to come down and bargaining all these rationalities why it won't - how does that end for you ? But ...as I said last hour.. if the high moves off more so than these GFS members have it... that's a different ball game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Near 60F down there on Saturday on the Euro. I'm kinda jealous. How can there be ice when it's 60F? New physics? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro still pretty meh in the icing in SNE. Maybe some glaze near Dave? It’s warm. Still letting the high slip too far east. Regardless, it's a pretty quick shot of precip, typical of a swfe. Gonna be hard to get big icing over big area. Maybe a narrow area gets a decent icing event, but were not talking about a ton of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, wx2fish said: Still letting the high slip too far east. Regardless, it's a pretty quick shot of precip, typical of a swfe. Gonna be hard to get big icing over big area. Maybe a narrow area gets a decent icing event, but were not talking about a ton of qpf It definitely was quick. Meanwhile claws on the deck for us on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Ugly... the pattern is ugly squared... This pattern and this thing ...it's like growing up rural in town of 12,400 people, and only seeing the same girls and so you think that one is so precious ... until you go to Frisco or LA or NYC and see women 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ugly... the pattern is ugly squared... This pattern and this thing ...it's like growing up rural in town of 12,400 people, and only seeing the same girls and so you think that one is so precious ... until you go to Frisco or LA or NYC and see women Frisco, TX? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Here it comes 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro still pretty meh in the icing in SNE. Maybe some glaze near Dave? It’s warm. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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