MarkO Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just took my first real peek at the models. Looks like potential for some decent accretion in CNE. Be interesting to see how this plays out. Supposed to go to RI, but I may stay north for the show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: True crippling ice storms are pretty rare. We get a lot of nuisance ice events and even semi-regularly we get moderate ice events in the interior. But they almost always fail to reach half an inch of accretion. (Radial measurement, not flat...big difference which causes confusion on here sometimes) You usually want a mesolow poking NE or NNE off the coast to really lock in the cold/dry dewpoint drain to offset the latent heat release of ZR. When the mesolow is oriented and poking more E or ENE, then it becomes harder to sustain the cold drain. So you’ll get some ZR for sure on that look, but then it ends up slowly going to 33F rain. You also need the QPF. Accretion efficiencies are often in the 0.7 range or even lower on moderate/heavy precipitation, but they will be much higher on light freezing rain. That’s also why many of the bigger ice storms come in waves of lighter precipitation that lasts for a couple days (or even longer like the 1998 ice storm in NNE) I feel like this is typically the biggest difference between an ice storm and the nuisance events we usually get. In the ice storm scenario we sustain the forcing to produce precip, not just the cold sticking around. Most often though the mid level warm front ends up in CYUL while we are left with drizzle and low clouds just north of the surface warm front. The QPF is going to stick with the mid level forcing, despite what the models may show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: and that is the EC and it has been warmest. Lets trend it to faster secondary and more snow. 3-6 snow and then some ice on top would work well. I think Scooters view is very much EMA on an east wind. Not necessarily a killer up here. Oh it’s meh here, but I wasn’t being specific for here. I think the area for anything interesting is definitely ORH county on north. I guess define that? Maybe the chance of more than .25” ice and some snow? I don’t always look for the weenie solutions. I recognize it could be colder and snowier. My job isn’t to sit back and call for every possibility and focus on the wintry solutions because it appeases the AmWx audience. I’m looking at what seems to be most realistic at this time. Of course it could trend cooler, but I don’t think my thoughts have changed much since yesterday. Definitely looks more interesting where you are. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS as late as yesterday was a sou Easter screamer. Now it’s got wintry precip . It’s been beyond bad on this one. Still catching on. Watch it today as it continues to understand the cold Remember when people were all in for a Christmas repeat of blasting rains and heat all the way to Quebec? These are the days of our lives , as the models turn. Looking more and more like a SWFE for Cad kids. Probably some ice sleet for us just south of you and the Pike. It is funny reading Hunchie downplaying who is probably the SNE forum member most under the gun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Remember when people were all in for a Christmas repeat of blasting rains and heat all the way to Quebec? These are the days of our lives , as the models turn. Looking more and more like a SWFE for Cad kids. Probably some ice sleet for us just south of you and the Pike. It is funny reading Hunchie downplaying who is probably the SNE forum member most under the gun. Hunchie is just like T Blizz...down everything until he’s buried or crushed in ice, then say it was a great event lol. Hindsight is 20/20 for those guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Remember when people were all in for a Christmas repeat of blasting rains and heat all the way to Quebec? These are the days of our lives , as the models turn. Looking more and more like a SWFE for Cad kids. Probably some ice sleet for us just south of you and the Pike. It is funny reading Hunchie downplaying who is probably the SNE forum member most under the gun. I just don’t see a siggy ice event this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: Hunchie is just like T Blizz...down everything until he’s buried or crushed in ice, then say it was a great event lol. Hindsight is 20/20 for those guys. My track record is pretty good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: My track record is pretty good You’re in a great spot for frozen...so it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Remember when people were all in for a Christmas repeat of blasting rains and heat all the way to Quebec? These are the days of our lives , as the models turn. Looking more and more like a SWFE for Cad kids. Probably some ice sleet for us just south of you and the Pike. It is funny reading Hunchie downplaying who is probably the SNE forum member most under the gun. He knows he’s in for a crippling icestorm. Just pretends it’ll be 50 and rain similar to Bob 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh it’s meh here, but I wasn’t being specific for here. I think the area for anything interesting is definitely ORH county on north. I guess define that? Maybe the chance of more than .25” ice and some snow? I don’t always look for the weenie solutions. I recognize it could be colder and snowier. My job isn’t to sit back and call for every possibility and focus on the wintry solutions because it appeases the AmWx audience. I’m looking at what seems to be most realistic at this time. Of course it could trend cooler, but I don’t think my thoughts have changed much since yesterday. Definitely looks more interesting where you are. This isn’t about appeasing anybody Scott. It is about potentially seeing something that was a lil more difficult to see at a specific lead time. That’s all this is. Hey, you know your sh*t, you may end being more correct on this potential. We’ll see going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: This isn’t about appeasing anybody Scott. It is about potentially seeing something that was a lil more difficult to see at a specific lead time. That’s all this is. Hey, you know your sh*t, you may end being more correct on this potential. We’ll see going forward. It's also not a competition wolfie. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's also not a competition wolfie. No it’s not...but you’re on one side of the coin, and a retired NWS MET is on the other. So you get the point. He gave us his take yesterday, and so did you. So in that respect, you see what I mean. It’s all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He knows he’s in for a crippling icestorm. Just pretends it’ll be 50 and rain similar to Bob I doubt crippling, cmon. Siggy maybe, shit if this keeps trending he may have a decent snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 Physics/micro-physical process of phase transition heat release will affix an initially icing scenario toward 32 and change like Will described. Icing events eat their set ups, and when the cold is gone...the icing stops - heh.. true though. They use up their own cold. It's simply a matter of how much cold vs the mass of phase transition, determines the length of icing post the initial condition. What makes protracted icing scenarios earn their coveted "storm" merit badges ( lol ..), is adding sufficiently thermodynamic cooling to the column to offset latent heat. There are two types of icing events - one is in situ, which is what the self-destruction model is above ... The others are dangerous because their gestation revolves around at the planetary wave changes. Will and Eric ( or is it Chris ..can't remember Oceanwx name) hinted at this when they described the 'pulse' or waves of synoptic light to moderate fall rates - that's basically a manifestation of a "pattern" in place that is just ripping separate events through it ...each one is being instructed by said pattern as an overrunning scenario. And ... yup, while all that is happening, it helps wanton malificent storm monger's hopes and dreams to not have the fall rate exceed the accretion rate, or they'll watch a lot of their "ice" fail to ruin the lives they are hoping to see ruined... ( ) . The big ice storm in Orh, 2007 - man the stars actually protected the region as much as delivered that entertaining event, because given what fell in that beast ... I'm willing to bet 2/3rds failed to rime. If that thing had been spread out across three nights and 1 F colder, we'd still be rewiring their infrastructure. I think the 1926 New England ice storm was a unique one, as it was both in situ, but also had large scale features/cold offset arriving ...such as building surface high under the rim of an initially liquid coastal storm - just from the stuff I read. It was like a wet snow to cold rain to icing Nor'easter - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Physics/micro-physical process of phase transition heat release will affix an initially icing scenario toward 32 and change like Will described. Icing events eat their set ups, and when the cold is gone...the icing stops - heh.. true though. They use up their own cold. It's simply a matter of how much cold vs the mass of phase transition, determines the length of icing post the initial condition. What makes protracted icing scenarios earn their coveted "storm" merit badges ( lol ..), is adding sufficiently thermodynamic cooling to the column to offset latent heat. There are two types of icing events - one is in situ, which is what the self-destruction model is above ... The others are dangerous because their gestation revolves around at the planetary wave changes. Will and Eric ( or is it Chris ..can't remember Oceanwx name) hinted at this when they described the 'pulse' or waves of synoptic light to moderate fall rates - that's basically a manifestation of a "pattern" in place that is just ripping separate events through it ...each one is being instructed by said pattern as an overrunning scenario. And ... yup, while all that is happening, it helps wanton malificent storm monger's hopes and dreams to not have the fall rate exceed the accretion rate, or they'll watch a lot of their "ice" fail to ruin the lives they are hoping to see ruined... ( ) . The big ice storm in Orh, 2007 - man the stars actually protected the region as much as delivered that entertaining event, because given what fell in that beast ... I'm willing to bet 2/3rds failed to rime. If that thing had been spread out across three nights and 1 F colder, we'd still be rewiring their infrastructure. I think the 1926 New England ice storm was a unique one, as it was both in situ, but also had large scale features/cold offset arriving ...such as building surface high under the rim of an initially liquid coastal storm - just from the stuff I read. It was like a wet snow to cold rain to icing Nor'easter - Chris yes, and also 1998 is a great example of the rippling waves along a pre-set background environment favorable for ice. The primary remained near the Ohio Valley but shortwave energy propagating east along the surface front kept the baggy low pressure near Cape Cod. Never really got into heavy precip rates, and made it one very efficient event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I doubt crippling, cmon. Siggy maybe, shit if this keeps trending he may have a decent snowstorm Snow and sleet and rain seems more likely than siggy ice imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He knows he’s in for a crippling icestorm. Just pretends it’ll be 50 and rain similar to Bob That is a very odd spin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Snow and sleet and rain seems more likely than siggy ice imho. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I think the 12z gfs sort of fits what I was thinking. Looks fairly icy western MA (maybe NW CT) into hubby land and NH. Areas south of there get a a little ice and sleet, but doesn’t seem to last long. Maybe central NH on north can get some plowable snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think the 12z gfs sort of fits what I was thinking. Looks fairly icy western MA (maybe NW CT) into hubby land and NH. Areas south of there get a a little ice and sleet, but doesn’t seem to last long. Maybe central NH on north can get some plowable snow? Ice will be more elevation dependent? I think under 1000’ is 35° rain. Just seems like not enough time for cold enough air to drain in for a good CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 You guys keep pinning Mets against each other and they will stop posting. Can we just analyze their input and not create conflict? I like it when we get new point of views... carry on 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: You guys keep pinning Mets against each other and they will stop posting. Can we just analyze their input and not create conflict? I like it when we get new point of views... carry on Thank you. It’s annoying it has come to that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the 12z gfs sort of fits what I was thinking. Looks fairly icy western MA (maybe NW CT) into hubby land and NH. Areas south of there get a a little ice and sleet, but doesn’t seem to last long. Maybe central NH on north can get some plowable snow? It looks like it would be more snow up this way now on the GFS, I would prefer it really but would not shy away from any frozen seeing this was looking to be another cutter similar to the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Ice will be more elevation dependent? I think under 1000’ is 35° rain. Just seems like not enough time for cold enough air to drain in for a good CAD. I feel like it will in this setup for sure. Although you always seem to do well in your CAD den lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Bostonseminole said: Winterwolf keeps pinning Mets against each other and they will stop posting. Can we just analyze their input and not create conflict? I like it when we get new point of views... carry on FYP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: It looks like it would be more snow up this way now on the GFS, I would prefer it really but would not shy away from any frozen seeing this was looking to be another cutter similar to the last one. Yeah further NE would be more snow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Knowing GFS thermal issues this is quite a thumping thump SWFE style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Knowing GFS thermal issues this is quite a thumping thump SWFE style That’s rain. Way too thick of an above freezing column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 God I want a 1926 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now