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Dec (Edit: Jan1/..2 ) multi-faceted ptype mess potential...


Typhoon Tip
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Thursday through Saturday...

Forecast confidence decreases beyond mid week but guidance is 
beginning to come to a relatively consistent picture indicating not 
one but two storm systems that will impact the region. The first 
comes during the day Thursday, the second Friday and Friday night. 
The biggest question is the exact track of these lows and what that 
means with regard to precipitation type. Uncertainty is highlighted 
by the great amount of spatial spread of the surface low tracks in 
both global ensemble guidance sources, the EPS and GEFS. Even so, we 
have a decent idea of generally what to expect. That being a 
lighter, rain event on Thursday followed by a heavier precipitation 
event on Friday which may very likely include some significant 
freezing rain, especially in the interior of western MA. This is 
because as Thursday's shallow mid level trough and sfc frontal 
system pass by they are replaced by a sfc high pressure which acts 
to pull in and hold sub freezing air in the low levels. This cold 
air damming signature would keep <0C air at the sfc which warmer air 
is lifted above on Friday setting up for a freezing rain situation 
in those locations. So, while other less impactful outcomes remain 
in the cards, there is potential for a significant ice event to 
start the New Year. Beyond Saturday weak ridging and high pressure 
should bring the return of quiet and seasonable weather.
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Lots of different interpretations.  WPC looks less snowy and icy until we’ll into NNE.  GYX though looks pretty cold with snow and freezing rain for their areas with warm air not getting until the storm passes.  They mention the possibility of a secondary forming off SNE.  Maybe it is so far west with the primary that we can really warm much.  Certainly not atmospheric river of high dews here.

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Yeah nothing has changed .. 

37 minutes ago, wdrag said:

06z/28 GEFS trends continue ever more wintry with several inches accumulation of snow I84 region on the first-second... even early 3rd looking interesting.  EC 06z run through 90 hours looks interesting. Strongly suggests at a minimum, a 12 hr winter weather event is coming for I84 on 1/1...  even sleet to NYC possible early on. Start time uncertain but should be going in earnest during the afternoon.  Probably going good in the morning Poconos.   Ever more looking more like a snow to ice situation, 12+ hours duration at the top of the 500MB ridge with primary upper low too far west to inflict major early on warmup to our area, provided we get the subfreezing temps here by 12z/1.

Screen Shot 2020-12-28 at 7.36.43 AM.png

 

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah nothing has changed .. 

 

Looking pretty good to me for a long duration wintry wx event on I84... starting time on 1/1 uncertain and if you look at the trend, biggest part of the event could be late 1/2-3.  For now going with 1/1 solid afternoon in CT but this is not yet completely resolved. What seems to be well resolved now, is no big low into the eastern Great Lakes. Possible yes, but not likely, due to the closed low initially into the Ohio Valley is too far west of us to negate wintry weather, and it weakens out across the top of the ridge awaiting what might be a better positive tilt short wave late 1/2-early 1/3.  Interesting for sure. 

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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Looking pretty good to me for a long duration wintry wx event on I84... starting time on 1/1 uncertain and if you look at the trend, biggest part of the event could be late 1/2-3.  For now going with 1/1 solid afternoon in CT but this is not yet completely resolved. What seems to be well resolved now, is no big low into the eastern Great Lakes. Possible yes, but not likely, due to the closed low initially into the Ohio Valley is too far west of us to negate wintry weather, and it weakens out across the top of the ridge awaiting what might be a better positive tilt short wave late 1/2-early 1/3.  Interesting for sure. 

This will take some folks in interior SNE by surprise as a lot were thinking mild rains. Certainly has continued the cold trends we first saw 2-3 days ago on the UK. Let’s watch and see if they continue even to the coast. 

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