powderfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Looks like a pretty decent front end burst this evening of snow/sleet in SVT and SNH. Some decent QPF numbers spreading snow/ice through CNE. in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: Euro stays the course. Gets the mix line up to about here before it gets shunted south again. Should I expect some downsloping/precip holes here with the precip coming up from the SW? This is my first SWFE here I think (in the winter at least). Models have a kinda spotty look near here now (more over Whitefield but close enough to have me wondering). Maybe it's just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Should I expect some downsloping/precip holes here with the precip coming up from the SW? This is my first SWFE here I think (in the winter at least). Models have a kinda spotty look near here now (more over Whitefield but close enough to have me wondering). Maybe it's just noise. No. These are good events for you and me. The SW flow is in the upper levels. The low levels have a NE ageostrophic drain with the CAD. This run just has better forcing in S NH versus N NH so I end up with a good quick thump before the changeover. Sometimes it just happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: No. These are good events for you and me. The SW flow is in the upper levels. The low levels have a NE ageostrophic drain with the CAD. This run just has better forcing in S NH versus N NH so I end up with a good quick thump before the changeover. Sometimes it just happens. OK, so just some model noise with banding/forcing instead of a fundamental geographic flaw. LOL No worries in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 32 minutes ago, PhineasC said: OK, so just some model noise with banding/forcing instead of a fundamental geographic flaw. LOL No worries in that case. Your in a good spot, These SWFE are good events for here back to you and Brian, Just a matter of how far the WF pushes north before crashing back south once the SLP develops in the GOM, Probably a thump on the front end some frdz then back to snow when it develops, Back in 07/08 i had 35 events that winter, Many were these SWFE and ended up 3rd all time with 137.8" when we avg 72". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 38 minutes ago, PhineasC said: OK, so just some model noise with banding/forcing instead of a fundamental geographic flaw. LOL No worries in that case. Lol... so worried about a possible flaw, it cracks me up every time. Models show 5” instead of 7” and I picture you going “uh oh did I buy the wrong place? Someone tell me its just noise. Can’t have an imperfect wind flow.” 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: Lol... so worried about a possible flaw or possibly not jackpotting, it cracks me up every time. Models show 5” instead of 7” and I picture you going “uh oh did I buy the wrong place?” You have to remember, Phin is from the mid atlantic where you had to scratch and claw for every inch possible............ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: You have to remember, Phin is from the mid atlantic where you had to scratch and claw for every inch possible............ Missing out on a storm like this down there means your whole winter might be over. The vibe in the MA forum right now is utter hopelessness. I think the bread and butter zone gang sometimes gets a little too high up into the clouds and forgets. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Missing out on a storm like this down there means your whole winter might be over. The vibe in the MA forum right now is utter hopelessness. I think the bread and butter zone gang sometimes gets a little too high up into the clouds and forgets. LOL Been tough down there the last few years after that epic 09/10 that i love to forget about but can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Its coming. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Pretty solid on the 18z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Missing out on a storm like this down there means your whole winter might be over. The vibe in the MA forum right now is utter hopelessness. I think the bread and butter zone gang sometimes gets a little too high up into the clouds and forgets. LOL Lol we are a little too high in the clouds. It’s true though even 5 years ago it used to bother me missing an event but since about 2015-16, just wait for the next shortwave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pretty solid on the 18z HRRR I'll pass on the 0.5" of slop here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'll pass on the 0.5" of slop here. More generous then the 12km Nam....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 NAM looks better than 12z here. Basically nowcast time at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: NAM looks better than 12z here. Basically nowcast time at this point. Looks like its going to be further west for monday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: More generous then the 12km Nam....lol Bufkit is spitting out some higher numbers (~3") but it's not the best look from the 12z. Most of the lift is below the DGZ. Even though I think it'll thump for a couple of hours here, that's probably not going to be better than 10:1, so a couple inches and then mixy. Not totally sold on the backside snows either. Good lift in the DGZ, but who knows what the temps will be by then. Interior may be able to score some bonus out of it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, OceanStWx said: Bufkit is spitting out some higher numbers (~3") but it's not the best look from the 12z. Most of the lift is below the DGZ. Even though I think it'll thump for a couple of hours here, that's probably not going to be better than 10:1, so a couple inches and then mixy. Not totally sold on the backside snows either. Good lift in the DGZ, but who knows what the temps will be by then. Interior may be able to score some bonus out of it though. Nam gets the WF pretty far north before retreating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Nam gets the WF pretty far north before retreating. Remember the rule, snow starts sooner than you think but so does the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, OceanStWx said: Remember the rule, snow starts sooner than you think but so does the sleet. Always on these, But you want the good snow, You have to sniff the taint............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I think this over performs south in of the Pike in the sleet department, maybe .15 ice in scattered locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Modfan2 said: I think this over performs south in of the Pike in the sleet department, maybe .15 ice in scattered locations Cold layer below the warm tongue is pretty deep for the first several hours, so I wouldn't be surprised at a pretty good sleet-fest for a time. Esp in the zone between the pike and N CT/N RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I'll pass on the 0.5" of slop here. We take - looks better than our 1.9" on Dec. 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Can we start an obs thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 38 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I think this over performs south in of the Pike in the sleet department, maybe .15 ice in scattered locations I’m going under .5 of snow / sleet.. to prolonged zr at 30-31.. and then rots at 33-34 last few hours of precip here. I won’t be shocked if it comes in as straight zr. I know how these work here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m going under .5 of snow / sleet.. to prolonged zr at 30-31.. and then rots at 33-34 last few hours of precip here. I won’t be shocked if it comes in as straight zr. I know how these work here I think you’ll pelt a lot and have at least 3-4hrs of ZR at like 30-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Almost time for a Obs Thread for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you’ll pelt a lot and have at least 3-4hrs of ZR at like 30-31. Def under 1” sleet/ snow. Goes to zr relatively quickly . May still be 32 when I go out to run at 4:45. Or couid be 33-34 then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you’ll pelt a lot and have at least 3-4hrs of ZR at like 30-31. I'll prob get an inch or two of snow/IP before a flip to rain...any glaze will be marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll prob get an inch or two of snow/IP before a flip to rain...any glaze will be marginal. the funny part would be getting more snow by 2am then in the Jan 3/4 system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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