HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Going with an inch of sleet and snow. Some rain. A little bit of ice. Like Whiney says, nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nah, ground is warm. Well this one would be that the trees are warm. But it's only 30s today so not a big deal. My head hurts from too many flavoured Smirnoffs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 18F for low. We rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18F for low. We rain. The charm of se mass climo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Yep we rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Could be a nice little sleet bomb for 3 hours here. Hopefully it starts as a couple hours of snow to at least whiten everything up good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12z NAM shockingly a bit warmer aloft, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 That 12z HRRR went nuts. Looks very excessive. Not sure how it gets 1”+ QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Nah, ground is warm. Don’t forget the sun angle. Been increasing for days. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, alex said: Don’t forget the sun angle. Been increasing for days. Yep. Almost time for SPF30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That 12z HRRR went nuts. Looks very excessive. Not sure how it gets 1”+ QPF. That looks nuts lol. NAM seemed more realistic. Enjoy the snow there and hopefully the start to more widespread fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Was March 2013 a late phase similar to 00z gfs/cmc etc? I remember the models starting to show the same type of deal at this range. I went and storm chased down and Virginia for a bust instead of going to SNE a few days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Was March 2013 a late phase similar to 00z gfs/cmc etc? I remember the models starting to show the same type of deal at this range. I went and storm chased down and Virginia for a bust instead of going to SNE a few days later It was a late phase but the whole thing was much further southeast....and t ended up creating like a 700-800 mile firehose in the mid levels coming out of the east. Had 23 inches in that one in ORH. This one if it does phase and stall would happen much further north...it wouldn’t be an easterly firehose setup. It would be a rotting CCB/deformation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2021 Author Share Posted January 1, 2021 For the ice enthusiasts ... too bad this didn't time in just a little faster. The set up might have benefited from 'cold air capping' ( CAC ) ...It's when radiational cooling insituates a mass of thus-made overly achieved cold air. Then, within an hour of dawn ceiling quickly overspreads and limits the amount of diurnal recovery. Dec 1997 did that, the 'snow bomb' storm. May very well be singularly the most proficient positive bust either imaginable, or verified in history. The only thing that would out perform that forecast f'up would be predicting the Hadean and ending up in the Pleistocene. Anyway, this CAC factor was a sneaky value-add in why that storm so elegantly ( or egregiously depending on one's job status...) busted cold. It was supposed to be like one of those 31 F start uppers that goes to glop ... ending as drizzle for an inch right of I-95, to perhaps 2-4" in the ORH Hills... The only thing that forecast did reasonably well with was where the snow would fall... Everything else? - rectal glue. When the tiny uniform aggregates palled the atmosphere down to orb headlights, muting Industrial white noise to sign-language ...even idiots were presciently channeling something was dreadfully wrong. Turn on tele, no advisories. Star lights twinkling in the sky like diamonds earlier that fateful morning... 5am - radiational cooling having squeezed out another 8 points off the DP ... It was like 19/19 ... 31 my ass - don't tell me that didn't contribute. By 8 am, the sky was the flat expanse of an upside-down chalk board ... totally smooth, grim and gray ...utterly devoid of differentiation, staring into infinity overcast ... and, it was still ... 19 F I don't think where I lived at the time, Acton Ma, ever saw an aggregate size bigger than say oh ..10 or 15 plates and dendrite in shattering clumps - which if you are a bona fide truly honorable socially belated nerd, you know that single dendrites, plates and rods are actually small ..very small! We dipped to 19 F here ... hmm... Alas, the sun won't shine this way in May - no way! This appetizer event has been bumping out in time inches as we've neared. If the ceilings came in and we got this underway.. a meso /secondary zygote circulation and the certain tuck/barrier jet formulation ...work together and 'synergize' an icer outcome... Even not so...I am not even convinced seeing a closed surface circulation under PVD will really even warm to 33 F where I am in Ayer along Rt Poop... and I wonder about the eastern slopes of the Watchusetts hills there down into the valley below the ORH Airport ... This system's subtle slowing as it nears... This reminds me of what I was mentioning to Will the other day ..about how sometimes the behavior of the circulation medium begins to act or behave prior to the onset of pattern change ..it's like physics of the models begin detection prior to the coherent observation of what ever is coming in space and time. In this case, this slowing of the event space - that predates the arrival of the more obvious "slowing influence of the NAO" ... We started sensing this in some of the guidance... By the way, I think the Euro is fiddling with the NAO's ballast ( geographically..) which in present nuanced form is allowing it to conserve more progressive character to the flow upon this thing's departure... Lot of complexity... This system transitively effects the next for the 4th+ ... which should probably be written into that thread but... This whole -NAO may parlay a 10-day sub-winter in winter here. It hearkens to the Met professor's philosophy from the middle part of last Century about how these R-wave events are like planetary storms, with each period of amplitude contained being like analogs to gusts of wind just having interludes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That looks nuts lol. NAM seemed more realistic. Enjoy the snow there and hopefully the start to more widespread fun. Yeah I’ve been stuck at 3-7” for northern half of VT for several days. Dense on 0.50-0.75” water. We’ll see some sleet or ZR before the better lift moves back in. Looked like soundings had two distinct times of lift... first with warm front then again on the back end when the vort swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Reggie still not caving. In fact it looks even more tucked than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Out of its range, but fwiw. It’s still snowing from VT into ME at 84 hours here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 I booked a motel at North Conway and reserved two days at Wildcat. This should be a fun weekend, can't wait! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 RGEM has looked great for several cycles. The Canadian models take a lot of flak, but they don't seem as jumpy as the GFS and the Euro. Doesn't mean they aren't wrong, of course. LOL At least they provide plenty of model beauty shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep. Almost time for SPF50. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 20 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Out of its range, but fwiw. It’s still snowing from VT into ME at 84 hours here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 12z Herpes gone wild too, over an inch of water here just like HRRR. I think they are on the juice literally. I think these are too far south to be honest with the mid-level warmth, but we’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Gonna be a nice little event. Excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 4-6" is a nice event, That's what i'm going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Hoping for 2" base mixed with sleet to help firm things up as foundation for what comes next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 The NAM twins have a spot of dry air and mixing that passes over me on the 12z runs. Not sure if that is real or just a burp. I assume it is trying to depict some downsloping or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Euro looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Euro did it too. Warmer and some dry air punches through here. Still a fine little event but more like 5 instead of 8. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Euro stays the course. Gets the mix line up to about here before it gets shunted south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2021 Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: Euro stays the course. Gets the mix line up to about here before it gets shunted south again. Euro did a bump S with 2-4” totals on weenie maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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