dendrite Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yeah, I was just flipping through TT quickly on my phone but comparing to 18z now it really isn’t any different. The front piece on Wed/Thu is starting to look like it could be a bigger deal than the Fri/Sat thing if current trends continue. I'd be surprised if Wed is bigger. Maybe you get a little upslope after the fropa wednesday, but it'll probably be a mix/rain down here until we get the CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You may hear lots of crickets as you comment on this One Snoozer as far as SWFE go. Does not have that menacing wall of snow look you like to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: I'd be surprised if Wed is bigger. Maybe you get a little upslope after the fropa wednesday, but it'll probably be a mix/rain down here until we get the CAA. We will see. Just a gut feeling I have that tomorrow evening into Thursday will overperform. Only thinking 3” or so. This main storm is basically an overrunning scenario and they are usually pretty reliable producers. Fewer failure modes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 ptype maps are showing a mix on the various sites for BML 84-87hr, but this is the raw sounding text for there at 87hr. Date: 87 hour GFS valid 15Z SAT 2 JAN 21 Station: KBML Latitude: 44.58 Longitude: -71.18 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 68 1 950 478 SFC 946 509 -2.3 -2.9 96 0.6 -2.6 135 5 275.2 275.7 273.5 284.1 3.26 3 900 907 -1.9 -2.4 97 0.5 -2.1 164 18 279.6 280.2 276.4 289.5 3.56 4 850 1364 -0.0 -0.2 99 0.1 -0.1 192 39 286.1 286.9 280.8 298.7 4.44 5 800 1850 -0.3 -0.4 99 0.1 -0.3 211 47 290.8 291.6 283.1 304.2 4.64 6 750 2366 -1.5 -1.7 99 0.2 -1.6 227 52 294.9 295.7 284.6 308.2 4.50 7 700 2913 -3.9 -4.2 98 0.3 -4.0 235 55 298.2 298.9 285.4 310.2 4.00 8 650 3495 -6.9 -7.3 97 0.4 -7.1 240 54 301.1 301.8 285.9 311.5 3.40 9 600 4116 -10.2 -10.6 97 0.4 -10.4 242 54 304.3 304.8 286.4 313.1 2.83 10 550 4781 -14.1 -14.4 98 0.2 -14.2 241 55 307.3 307.7 286.9 314.6 2.28 11 500 5497 -19.0 -19.1 100 0.1 -19.0 239 57 309.9 310.2 287.2 315.4 1.69 Definite warm layer aloft and close to ZR, but it still looks like snow to me at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Man, the last two runs of the CMC have been just beautiful. Hits me with the second storm as well. Hope the blind squirrel found a nut this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Snoozer as far as SWFE go. Does not have that menacing wall of snow look you like to see. GFS/ICON has a quick thump into VT/NH. But yeah, this isn't one of our high ends SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Lol this “winter”......can we fire up the May thread now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 What a gorgeous Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Phin I swear was just about to post saying you’d probably nutted after seeing this run lol. I’d contemplate chasing up there if this idea holds, I’m off from work after I finish job tomorrow so I could spend a few days up there. Highly considering it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Wow. Nice run right into SNE with the front end. Nice secondary development too for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 5 hours ago, PhineasC said: What a gorgeous Euro run. Can we start a petition? We need that run to verify. I’m craving the glades! Glade West opened last week but of course closed back up after the rainstorm. Bretton Woods is not the same without the glades... oh and I love snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, alex said: Can we start a petition? We need that run to verify. I’m craving the glades! Glade West opened last week but of course closed back up after the rainstorm. Bretton Woods is not the same without the glades... oh and I love snow. I’m with you..just need a solid foot to get things going. Jay might as well be hunter without the glades. #skithewoods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 RGEM is pretty weenieish for NNE too. Pretty cold aloft for more frozen than freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: RGEM is pretty weenieish for NNE too. Pretty cold aloft for more frozen than freezing. good trends. 2 adv events in a 48 hr period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 That was the best run yet on the 06z Euro for 01/02, Cold right to the coast as the Meso low does its dirty work . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 6 hours ago, dendrite said: Wow. Nice run right into SNE with the front end. Nice secondary development too for NNE. Yeah, that's what stuck out for me first thing this morning... the tendency for that secondary - so much for not having a meso low, huh. You know ...that did strike me a little dubious before. I mean a little voice in my mind was thinking it's almost impossible not to have one given the total synoptic structures in this. To lay in a -10C 850 mb air mass as far S as nearly the NH/MA border just a mere 24 hours prior to the warm front kissing NJ, yet the models were selling only a vague curved PP around the boundary like that...? mmm So..two cycles, boom boom and they go right thru the meso look into a higher latitude quasi Miller B ...interesting... The reason I did not mention that before is because I was too pre-occupied with the 500 mb going so far west. That's strange too frankly - the core of the vestigial S/stream wave that rides up the ridge is so far west, that it almost argues for sequencing through a new wave space to finally get it through our longitude... I just kept focusing on that facet ...wondering if/when the other shoe would fall and we'd just up and lose this whole thing and have it morph into something else entirely.. But, that's not happenin' either... As it were, this entire thing is ending up excessively sloped in the atmosphere... I think now this thread's merit/relevancy has been returned based on what I see... And, we shall see... I'm not like giddy 100% for a moderate ice "event" ..but, I think the light to mod impact mix mess (S-N) idea has been taken off the c-19 ventilator and is breathing under its own power again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Probably also more of a symbolic thing ... but, I noticed growing up around this latitude of interior eastern SNE ...over the many, many ...many years ..that icing events between ct-vt/nh latitude seldom entry as ZR.. There is more typically 2 to 3 inches of matting then a switch ... while the shrubbery and wires and tree limbs slowly begin to 'glow' if by day, or prism urban lights by night, the surface of the snow may even accrete enough that you can walk on the lawn. We all have our moments that stick out along the time-lines of our lives. They're just curious little nuances along the way that ... you just don't really avail an opportunity to share, so they're kept along. I remember a calm dusk on an Xmas Eve a few years ago, up in Dunstable. My sis' in-laws own a huge spread of land. It was cold. 23 F calm wind, the steam vapors seemed to want to fall from the chin rather then rise. The trees were still moderately burdened from a glazing event some two days prior, and the pasture's 3" inches of snow sheened the fading light. I took the moment for a solo walk out there, and it really would have been a crime to Nature's handiwork in any other ambience than cryo ... Almost heartbreakingly beautiful ... and just then, 'goo-goo goo-goo' , excuse me if I don't know how to spell the sound of ice report from over a lake or pond surface ...but the field actually spoke to me in that same exact way. I had never experienced anything like that.. As a first it was sort of outre - but since, yeah it makes sense that can happen; the flat expanse of a field of Earth, lane over by a 3" of snow pack then 3/4" of ice cover, probably would exact the same phenomenon. I'm getting artsy and nostalgically ahead of my self here ..still, I also recall so many times, almost all ice events seem to be forecast by TWC and NWS and the local stations, as transitioning to 39 F rain, prior to my education and knowing exactly why they would eventually bust too anxious to erode the cold... Whenever I'd see that I grew to almost expect, ..even getting excited that ZR was prooobably going to last longer than those anticipations ... Until I grew up and started connecting ice with consequence of no life and no power and well..heh, icing lost much of its cache with me but that's another discussion - But this smacks as one of those sort of deals where the ice lingers a bit longer, particularly now that we are getting the better meso expression in these recent runs - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Probably also more of a symbolic thing ... but, I noticed growing up around this latitude of interior eastern SNE ...over the many, many ...many years ..that icing events between ct-vt/nh latitude seldom entry as ZR.. There is more typically 2 to 3 inches of matting then a switch ... while the shrubbery and wires and tree limbs slowly seem to 'glow' as it continues, the surface of the snow can sometimes even accrete enough that you can walk on the lawn. We all have our moments that stick out along the time-lines of our lives. I remember a calm dusk on an Xmas Eve a few years ago, up in Dunstable. My sis' in-laws own a huge spread of land. It was cold. 23 F calm wind, the steam vapors seemed to want to fall from the chin rather then rise. The trees were still moderately burdened form a glazing event some two days prior, and the pasture's 3" inches of snow sheened the fading light. I took the moment for a solo walk out there, and it really would have been a crime to Nature's handiwork in any other ambience than cryo ... Almost heartbreakingly beautiful ... and just then, 'goo-goo goo-goo' , excuse me if I don't know how to spell the sound of ice report from over a lake or pond surface ...but the field actually spoke to me in that same exact way. I had never experienced anything like that.. it's just outre - the notion of a field of Earth lane over by a 3" of snow pack, then 3/4" of ice, would exact the same phenomenon. I'm getting artsy and nostalgically ahead of my self here ..still, I also recall so many times, almost all ice events seem to be forecast by TWC and NWS and the local stations, as transitioning to 39 F rain ... Whenever I'd see that I grew to almost expect, ..even getting excited ZR going longer than anticipated ... Until I grew up and started connecting ice with no life and no power and well..heh, lost its cache with me but that's another discussion - This smacks as all those almost classically/existential - We have had other icing events over time, but 2008 while it did not reach my former area of S ORH county/NE CT clearly sticks out. I was working a Ambulance shift and remember hearing Oxford MA being toned out for numerous trees down and here I was 12 miles south and plain rain. I have seen pictures of damaging ice that far south in the early 1900’s but that is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, dendrite said: RGEM is pretty weenieish for NNE too. Pretty cold aloft for more frozen than freezing. Ha, I just looked at the run, I think i would sell that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: Ha, I just looked at the run, I think i would sell that. I'm not sure I would frankly ... 'course, I have the biggest ballz of all event posters because I have no where else to go but up in life...heh... No, it's not unusual for the models to "see" the BL resistance/inhibition to cyclonic/warm intrusion only nearing an event, with more coherency and as I just opined... even the Euro with -10C at BTV over to mid Maine at 850s a mere 24 to 30 hours prior to saturable isentropic lift ... ...is a lot of long words to suggest that a cold profile has precedence for materializing out of models when the cold is arriving, not rotting ... The nascence of this may have been and probably was because of BL resolution ... moved out too quickly - thing is... some of these late runs ... seemed to hint 12z yesterday, bust has been trending more pronounced, have inched the +PP position up N ... backward relative to the modeled total translation of the event. Subtle but crucially ... that adds more said BL resistance and plus with 850 mb turning ENE-E at your latitudes near Brian and up by you... that means it is moving parallel to an elevated topography and that will force that layers ascent and that's a positive feedback at keeping the lower levels critically colder... The Euro also shows now a better backside 850 mb temp collapse ( -2 to -3C ) on the backside of that escaping middling secondary, which means it may have snowed to ping to upsloping snow upon exit. It's a fine art ... yup. But, I could see this thing staying snow at least longer for somewhere between the PF-Brian-Dryslot-Phinny axis of evil 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I would frankly ... 'course, I have the biggest ballz of all event posters because I have no where else to go but up in life...heh... No, it's not unusual for the models to "see" the BL resistance/inhibition to cyclonic/warm intrusion only nearing an event, with more coherency and as I just opined... even the Euro with -13Cat BTV over to mid Maine at 850s a mere 24 to 30 hours prior to saturable isentropic lift ... ...is a lot of long words to suggest that a cold profile has precedence for materializing out of models when the cold is arriving, not rotting ... The nascence of this may have been and probably was because of BL resolution ... moved out too quickly - thing is... some of these late runs ... seemed to hint 12z yesterday, bust has been trending more pronounced, have inched the +PP position up N ... backward relative to the modeled total translation of the event. Subtle but crucially ... that adds more said BL resistance and plus with 850 mb turning ENE-E at your latitudes near Brian and up by you... that means it is moving parallel to an elevated topography and that will force that layers ascent and that's a positive feedback at keeping the lower levels critically colder... It's a fine art ... yup. But, I could see this thing staying snow at least longer for somewhere between the PF-Brian-Dryslot-Phinny axis of evil If indeed the secondary idea holds, Then i would say yes its game on for here, I just can't but the RGEM yet unless we get others to follow, Now that i said that watch the 12z Nam come in similar......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: We have had other icing events over time, but 2008 while it did not reach my former area of S ORH county/NE CT clearly sticks out. I was working a Ambulance shift and remember hearing Oxford MA being toned out for numerous trees down and here I was 12 miles south and plain rain. I have seen pictures of damaging ice that far south in the early 1900’s but that is it. I was 5 miles south of my sister in law who got iced pretty bad, lost power for a week while I was plain rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Probably also more of a symbolic thing ... but, I noticed growing up around this latitude of interior eastern SNE ...over the many, many ...many years ..that icing events between ct-vt/nh latitude seldom entry as ZR.. There is more typically 2 to 3 inches of matting then a switch ... while the shrubbery and wires and tree limbs slowly begin to 'glow' if by day, or prism urban lights by night, the surface of the snow may even accrete enough that you can walk on the lawn. I remember only one significant ice storm that didn't begin with frozen precip, usually SN but a couple times IP. That one event, Dec. 11-12, 1970 in NNJ, produced the weirdest looking lawns ever, with grass blades encased in 3/4" ice and not a speck of snow on the ground before or during the event. Probably my #3 ice storm, vying with Dec 1983 in Fort Kent, but orders of magnitude below 1953 and 1998. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: If indeed the secondary idea holds, Then i would say yes its game on for here, I just can't but the RGEM yet unless we get others to follow, Now that i said that watch the 12z Nam come in similar......... Looking similar through 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: If indeed the secondary idea holds, Then i would say yes its game on for here, I just can't but the RGEM yet unless we get others to follow, Now that i said that watch the 12z Nam come in similar......... I think the secondary is real.. It's in the Euro... It's in less than popular/conventional model types ...they're jumping into the ante, not away...and, it is theoretically sound - Just imho - But, it's not a like a 1978 Miller B extravaganza here ... we're talking about modest mid level support for it, and BL resistance just barely being enough ( hence the fine art) ...so, provided no industrial farts act like chaotic butterflies downstream of the Petro complex up there near Hamilton Canada ... etc etc.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 NAM pops the secondary and keeps snow going along the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: I remember only one significant ice storm that didn't begin with frozen precip, usually SN but a couple times IP. That one event, Dec. 11-12, 1970 in NNJ, produced the weirdest looking lawns ever, with grass blades encased in 3/4" ice and not a speck of snow on the ground before or during the event. Probably my #3 ice storm, vying with Dec 1983 in Fort Kent, but orders of magnitude below 1953 and 1998. The 2008 ice storm in ORH was like that....no snow or sleet before hand or during the event....even up in N ORH county like near FIT they had some sleet or sleet/snow mix for a time which whitened the ground a little. But down in ORH it was all "clear ice" on everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Close to a foot on the clown maps. I just got NAM’ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The 2008 ice storm in ORH was like that....no snow or sleet before hand or during the event....even up in N ORH county like near FIT they had some sleet or sleet/snow mix for a time which whitened the ground a little. But down in ORH it was all "clear ice" on everything. If only we can get that again over more of a widespread region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Nam looks great up north. Good for them and much needed. Maybe an inch or two of snow and sleet with ZR for Dave? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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