alex Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 16 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I think we will stay mostly snow. No scientific basis for that, just it looks like the models are getting colder each run for us. Still a long ways to go before go-time. The Wed/Thu stuff is more interesting too. Decent chance of 3-7" on the ground before this other thing even starts. I actually have a good feeling about this one too. Not that that means anything! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And I was pitted against people, called out etc. Very very hurt. I'm so sorry for your pain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You vs Walt in a cage match It was surprising to see what took place this week to be sure . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 You hate to see it, But it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: You hate to see it, But it happens. Coming from a met and good poster too. Really tough . Proof that bad days can happen to everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 You guys lol. We all love and enjoy each other. Here’s to snow. Wish we could all be at a bar discussing the storms that downsloped Tolland in the KU book. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wolf not howling tonight? Surprised as there is practically a full moon out too. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 18z euro tickled colder. Def more snow for CNE and NNE than the 12z run. Maybe a quick inch or so for the pike region too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro tickled colder. Def more snow for CNE and NNE than the 12z run. Maybe a quick inch or so for the pike region too. What's it looking like for timing and details a few miles SE of Lake Winni? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: What's it looking like for timing and details a few miles SE of Lake Winni? prob starts around midnight friday night give or take a couple hours...might be 2 or 3 inches there? Hard to say...mid-levels warm quick, but sfc stays cold. Def some sleet and ZR in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro tickled colder. Def more snow for CNE and NNE than the 12z run. Maybe a quick inch or so for the pike region too. Better chance of some glazing pike south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Better chance of some glazing pike south? It has a few hours in N CT from Kevin to your old stomping grounds before it goes to 33-34 rain. Nothing big but it doesn't take much to be dangerous for anyone driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Hopefully this keep trending towards mostly snow for up here. Seems to be heading that way as the mesos come into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: prob starts around midnight friday night give or take a couple hours...might be 2 or 3 inches there? Hard to say...mid-levels warm quick, but sfc stays cold. Def some sleet and ZR in there. Thanks for taking the time... I know it's lazy to ask. I just don't know a thing about that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3k NAM spitting out an inch of liquid here before the main storm even starts. Says I would have 8-9" OTG before a lull on Friday. Hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: 3k NAM spitting out an inch of liquid here before the main storm even starts. Says I would have 8-9" OTG before a lull on Friday. Hope it's right. It vastly over does QPF in its mountain grids sometimes. Almost like it mistakes rime or some sort of QPF trigger in the algorithm. The synoptic set up doesn’t support these values... MVL here isn’t getting 0.40+ water and the mountain 1+... MWN isn’t getting 2”+ QPF. Especially with such a sharp drop off around all precip maximums. You’ll see that a lot with the 3km NAM. You gotta average the highs and lows but often it’s a flaw in the model for the high QPF dots over the mountain grid points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 3k NAM spitting out an inch of liquid here before the main storm even starts. Says I would have 8-9" OTG before a lull on Friday. Hope it's right. You should be OK up there but now it’s almost time for the NAM to start spitting out warmer and warmer mid-level intrusions, that SNE weenies will convince themselves is over done or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: It vastly over does QPF in its mountain grids sometimes. Almost like it mistakes rime or some sort of QPF trigger in the algorithm. The synoptic set up doesn’t support these values... MVL here isn’t getting 0.40+ water and the mountain 1+... MWN isn’t getting 2”+ QPF. Especially with such a sharp drop off around all precip maximums. You’ll see that a lot with the 3km NAM. You gotta average the highs and lows but often it’s a flaw in the model for the high QPF dots over the mountain grid points. Yep, I have noticed it often goes nuts with this. Seen it several times already. The other mesos are around .30" liquid, which is more reasonable. But I can still hope the 3k has this figured out. LOL A solid 2-4" before the main show would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 NAM did come in a little colder. Not quite as cold as the euro but colder than the 18z NAM. Bit of a sleet bomb for a few hours in the pike region. More snow into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM did come in a little colder. Not quite as cold as the euro but colder than the 18z NAM. Bit of a sleet bomb for a few hours in the pike region. More snow into CNE. Damn, Euro is colder than the NAM? Must be pretty good for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Damn, Euro is colder than the NAM? Must be pretty good for up here. Yeah euro was snowier up there than 12z run. It’s not super different from 00z NAM up there...but down here it was. Euro had a period of snow down here while NAM is mostly sleet at the onset after maybe a couple flakes. You’d still prob change to some sleet or ZR near the end but not before most of the precip thumps you as snow. It’s not a very prolific system (prob advisory type snows from the synoptic precip) but it beats rain. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah euro was snowier up there than 12z run. It’s not super different from 00z NAM up there...but down here it was. Euro had a period of snow down here while NAM is mostly sleet at the onset after maybe a couple flakes. You’d still prob change to some sleet or ZR near the end but not before most of the precip thumps you as snow. It’s not a very prolific system (prob advisory type snows from the synoptic precip) but it beats rain. Lol. Thanks. I still feel pretty good about 6"+ between the initial 2-3", the main storm, and then some upslope fluff on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Acknowledge runs coming in a degree or two colder over last couple of cycles… But this was still never going to be about snow in Southern New England and probably not even up to Manchester New Hampshire just keep that in mind - mix/ice. But typically these things do start out with aggregates for at least a small while I’ve seen IP columns be 10,000 feet deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Thanks. I still feel pretty good about 6"+ between the initial 2-3", the main storm, and then some upslope fluff on top. Yeah I’m sure you’ll breach 6” when you add in the upslope stuff. The synoptic stuff is good base-builder though even if it’s only 3 or 4 inches. It’s denser, especially if it’s borderline sleet or changes to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Heh looks like icing “event” tries another go at it .. this ICON run back situates the high up N just enough to impress this as running into a polar wall. This suggests within 50-70 S of the snow is mod IP/glazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 GFS kinda ugly tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: GFS kinda ugly tonight. You may hear lots of crickets as you comment on this One 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 20 minutes ago, PhineasC said: GFS kinda ugly tonight. Didn't look too bad up there. 3-5" or so and then a little mix/DZ before ending. Pretty typical of these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 22 minutes ago, PhineasC said: GFS kinda ugly tonight. GFS has been ugly most of this "winter" in the Northeast US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Didn't look too bad up there. 3-5" or so and then a little mix/DZ before ending. Pretty typical of these things. Yeah, I was just flipping through TT quickly on my phone but comparing to 18z now it really isn’t any different. The front piece on Wed/Thu is starting to look like it could be a bigger deal than the Fri/Sat thing if current trends continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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