HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How’s our ice looking? Crippling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Ice up to thy knickers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How’s our ice looking? people better enjoy the ice in their drinks on NYE and new years day........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just have to hope for a colder trend for a few inches of snow and a crust, but I think a warm trend is more likely at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Just have to hope for a colder trend for a few inches of snow and a crust, but I think a warm trend is more likely at this point Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 This pattern is shite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Still shoveling that GGEM snow. Looks like the coldest and best possible solution with good front side snows and good upslope...Mansfield Medley in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Models are a mess up here. Euro and GFS16 with quite a bit of ZR. Maybe some S/IP to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 0z gfs has 995 LP near Great Lakes Sat am 6z has 1004 LP (Much weaker ) at same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 0z gfs has 995 LP near Great Lakes Sat am 6z has 1004 LP (Much weaker ) at same time The entire 6z GFS run was weak sauce for winter cooking. Friday is trending shredded mess with unimpressive qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: The entire 6z GFS run was weak sauce for winter cooking. Friday is trending shredded mess with unimpressive qpf. The winter is trending toward week sauce but we shall c . Maybe we can see epic pattern in April and May again ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 35 minutes ago, dendrite said: Models are a mess up here. Euro and GFS16 with quite a bit of ZR. Maybe some S/IP to start. I guess i'll just open the blinds and look outside on the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: How’s our ice looking? I would think with your typical paring down with ZR QPF not being 1:1 probably a widespread .1-.3" with higher elevations going up to .5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, crossbowftw3 said: I would think with your typical paring down with ZR QPF not being 1:1 probably a widespread .1-.3" with higher elevations going up to .5". Well for where? I’m not seeing much south of the pike. Maybe hunchie gets some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well for where? I’m not seeing much south of the pike. Maybe hunchie gets some. 84 and north if I had to guess at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 This threat has been slowing down on the models and its looking more now to be the 2nd that has to be watched with the s/w down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Models are a mess up here. Euro and GFS16 with quite a bit of ZR. Maybe some S/IP to start. Yeah ... my take on this this morning is that the entire banded region of impact specifics have shifted some 100 mi N of when this thread began... But, there's probably going to be some subjective and/or imby-ism ... Most places will see a flake or two.. hear some pings... and may glaze. It'll be a matter of how long one spends in along that spectrum - less S, ...longer N.. I just have difficulty believing the Euro will be "that" wrong with the general layout ... not at this range, and the above is still satisfied in a Euro evolution. It can bust - sure... But, we have no crystal ball and the gamble of least regret, it is just too inconsistent with the Euro's verification to see that happening so we wait so that cacklers can claim the Euro is never as good as used to be in the off chance that it proves not to actually be a conduit for the thoughts of god - ... So, bearing that in mind - and in no small part ( for me ..), the 06z GFS took a pretty significant step toward the Euro's timing/placement re the high up up N of Maine ... I really see this as a quicker transition - save for the valleys ... which may hold out a bit longer for cold puddling. You folks up your way will concomitantly take longer to move through your rendition of this ultimately 'scrape-by' event to 'feel' like this winter isn't really fool's errand - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ... my take on this this morning is that the entire banded region of impact specifics have shifted some 100 mi N of when this thread began... But, there's probably going to be some subjective and/or imby-ism ... Most places will see a flake or two.. hear some pings... and may glaze. It'll be a matter of how long one spends in along that spectrum - less S, ...longer N.. I just have difficulty believing the Euro will be "that" wrong with the general layout ... not at this range, and the above is still satisfied in a Euro evolution. It can bust - sure... But, we have no crystal ball and the gamble of least regret, it is just to inconsistent with the Euro's verification to see that happening so we wait so that cacklers can claim the Euro is never as good as used to be in the off chance that it proves not to actually be a conduit for the thoughts of god - ... So, bearing that in mind - and in no small part ( for me ..), the 06z GFS took a pretty significant step toward the Euro's timing/placement re the high up up N of Maine ... I really see this as a quicker transition - save for the valleys ... which may hold out a bit longer for cold puddling. I just don’t see this as a big deal in SNE. I never really did. As soon as the precip moves in, HP slips east and WAA ensues. No real polar drain and meso low locking in nrly ageo component. Maybe Berks and nrn ORH county get some decent ice? I could see some snow right along nrn border with NH. South of pike? Not a big deal imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 We're not even in the meso model range yet for this one, Seems to keep getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: We're not even in the meso model range yet for this one, Seems to keep getting pushed back. Slower is probably not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Slower is probably not good. The southern s/w tracking thru or close to BGM is no good, By the time you get the meso low to develop its right over us, That HP is no help where it is, Not what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Models have been decently locked in for my little corner of the world. There is some snow that rolls through late Wednesday and Thursday, then a pause, followed by snow-ice-snow (and maybe some drizzle mixed in). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just don’t see this as a big deal in SNE. I never really did. As soon as the precip moves in, HP slips east and WAA ensues. No real polar drain and meso low locking in nrly ageo component. Maybe Berks and nrn ORH county get some decent ice? I could see some snow right along nrn border with NH. South of pike? Not a big deal imo. This was always predicated on the idea of lower polar wedging and removing that, we'd be skunked - well... it's 2020 !! The 'never really did' - fine... The thread was 'light to moderate' ..others like to spin things up perhaps. I don't know who said what.. .but, these bolded pieces are completely fair to be honest. There were in fact better indications of those now missing features you mention - even in the early Euro runs, semblances of meso circulations.. better delays of the high. that's the way it looked like 4 days back... heh. Anyway, it was a worth journey .. It started evolving toward less after the fact. As it stands now ... no argument moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This was always predicated on the idea of lower polar wedging and removing that, we'd be skunked - well... it's 2020 !! The 'never really did' - fine... The thread was 'light to moderate' ..others like to spin things up perhaps. I don't know who said what.. .but, these bolded pieces are completely fair to be honest. There were in fact better indications of those now missing features you mention - even in the early Euro runs, semblances of meso circulations.. better delays of the high. that's the way it looked like 4 days back... heh. Anyway, it was a worth journey .. It started evolving toward less after the fact. As it stands now ... no argument moving forward. It’s gonna be interesting for some here, so worthy of talking about for sure. I guess it just boils down to geographics and who sees what type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Nice gfs run for Phin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Should be able to make a trip north after this next one, That area looks to be inline for snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 All i care right now is to head north for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: All i care right now is to head north for the time being. That would almost get us back in business up north, the lake has about 4 to 5 inches of ice in town which ideally we'll be grooming by the weekend after MLK day if things come around ok. No real cold is a bit concerning coming up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 The v16 is a better look here than the original. Best snows being shown a little north of me into ME, hoping as the mesoscale models get into range that smooths out a little. Still feeling pretty good about 6-10" for the entire storm (including front-running stuff and upslope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The v16 is a better look here than the original. Best snows being shown a little north of me into ME, hoping as the mesoscale models get into range that smooths out a little. Still feeling pretty good about 6-10" for the entire storm (including front-running stuff and upslope). I pray you’re right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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