Lava Rock Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 No upslope here....... Looking forward to 1" glop then shwrs. Better than 50s and pounding liquidSent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 51 minutes ago, dryslot said: No upslope here....... Get some elevation, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Saw the comments on GFSV16. I'm the outlier and you may be correct but I see it lagging on big events except on two occasions the past 6 weeks. I'll monitor temps etc the next 3 days vs GFS. On GEFS 2-3" snow still on the 18z/28 run, you probably already knew (old news?)... but from my perspective, that's probably the GEFS trying to treat sleet as 10 to 1 snow ratio. Therefore the GEFS implication that a bunch of sleet is coming Jan 1 to I84. I won't say what will be right, but noticed the 18z EC op has 27F in PHL 12z Friday..not precipitating yet. That's 7F colder than the 12z/28 GFS MOS. So, i know cold air can erode, especially since 850 flow is southwest, not aiding CAD, but yet, the max 850 jet cores are split... one to the Adirondacks and the other s of LI...leaving not quite so much scouring potential into I84. If models warm from here on out, then I'm wrong. However, if RGEM is not furnace and starts showing 9-12 hours sleet/freezing rain into parts of the I84 corridor, I won't be surprised. GGEM should start tipping us off soon, one way or the other. One other note: I saw the note on Jan 3 being included in a topic. On our NYC forum I did that so we can keep all the discussion of multiple coming events in one place. They know that this original topic was 1 day either side of 12/29 and 1/1, as originated 1/21. I'm letting the models vacillate for another 24 hours. By Wednesday morning it should be more defined whether there is a significant I84 ice event. Added the 00z/21 NAEFS averaged trough for 00z/2. Have to go...probably won't see the forum til 6A Tuesday. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Very little advance warning of an impending ice event up here in the Berks. I think that's a mistake. NYE/NYD is looking ominous. People should be clued in at this point. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 42 minutes ago, RDRY said: Very little advance warning of an impending ice event up here in the Berks. I think that's a mistake. NYE/NYD is looking ominous. People should be clued in at this point. Too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 2 hours ago, dryslot said: No upslope here....... Somewhat marginal here too. It all depends on how blocked the flow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: Too soon. It looks pretty locked in for at least a quarter inch of ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, RDRY said: Very little advance warning of an impending ice event up here in the Berks. I think that's a mistake. NYE/NYD is looking ominous. People should be clued in at this point. My body is ready... is yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Electrician says my genny hasn’t been used since 2017. I live on the side of a mountain in NNE and my power lines drag near the ground when it snows. When will I see some real New England weather? This shit is weak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 36 minutes ago, RDRY said: It looks pretty locked in for at least a quarter inch of ice. A quarter inch is nuisance stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Electrician says my genny hasn’t been used since 2017. I live on the side of a mountain in NNE and my power lines drag near the ground when it snows. When will I see some real New England weather? This shit is weak! Come down to Plymouth County. You’ll use it once a month. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, PhineasC said: My body is ready... is yours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 54 minutes ago, RDRY said: It looks pretty locked in for at least a quarter inch of ice. It’s Monday night. This is a Friday event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s Monday night. This is a Friday event. Very little warning of impending doom though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Very little warning of impending doom though. It's New Year's -- they should at least be mentioning the possibility. So far, nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, RDRY said: It's New Year's -- they should at least be mentioning the possibility. So far, nothing. All I found was this 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: All I found was this Not bad. But I demand more hype! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 39 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Electrician says my genny hasn’t been used since 2017. I live on the side of a mountain in NNE and my power lines drag near the ground when it snows. When will I see some real New England weather? This shit is weak! When you move back to MD, We will be back to normalcy up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: When you move back to MD, We will be back to normalcy up here. Probably. I am cognizant of the possibility it’s me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Still not seeing a big snow or ice signal in a lot of areas for SNE, especially south of pike. They’ll be some there, but I don’t see anything exciting right now. Nothing has really changed my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 GFS also is about 9 hrs of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, RDRY said: Man that’s a pretty deep reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 Cold air always wins when tuck jets are draining off a latitude top heavy PP ... don’t forget that and modulate with that in mind. 00z GFS hesitates +PP departure around 84-96 hrs. Hard to say if that’s just modeling noise but this is a very sensitive situation and moving that high backward relative to the modeling progression even a little bit can have significant sensible impacts when we’re dealing with whether it’s a 35° cold rain or 31.4 glazing in the Interior Southern New England. In short .. new run does little to increase confidence in quicker warming onset Also it is true that the ballast of this event appears to be NYD presently but staying the title in the off chance the lead boundary situates and thus initiate modest isen. lift sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 What a shredded mess this is, Marginal air mass, Mixed Lt/Mod event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2020 Author Share Posted December 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: What a shredded mess this is, Marginal air mass, Mixed Lt/Mod event. It’s technically still 2020 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: It’s technically still 2020 lol I think it will carry over for a few more weeks unfortunately John, Can't shake it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Look at what the 0z GFS Para has for the follow-up wave. I'd take it at this point, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I'll be in Brookfield NH for this one... How does it look? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 49 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Man that’s a pretty deep reference. Freezing rain. The holy grail. Both are serious business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 How’s our ice looking? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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