dendrite Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Was Christine Miami, FL or Miami, WV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Was Christine Miami, FL or Miami, WV? Same verification score, regardless lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ugly... the pattern is ugly squared... This pattern and this thing ...it's like growing up rural in town of 12,400 people, and only seeing the same girls and so you think that one is so precious ... until you go to Frisco or LA or NYC and see women Ha, perfectly stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I don't care if Kevin finds the love child of Paul Kocin and Heather Archambault to promulgate his ice queen fantasies, I see very little appeal with this for sne. @wdrag, sorry, love ya mean it, but don't see it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Euro did try to get that follow up wave up the coast. Regardless of ptype it was a huge nod to the para idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure what my opinion of V16 is ... I've heard some floated rumors that it's verification/scoring is besting the current operational variant - as well as other models too.. But where? What sigma level/metrics ?? ...I mean, is through the whole troposphere ...? or just in the 500 mb ongoing cinema - I will say I like the 12z V16's entrenched cold look as being more realistic for just knowing how cold air is heavier and any positive soundings will tend to stay that way - duh... That looks like brief snow to bee-bees and glazing in interior SNE probably down into N CT ... and looking at the meso-beta low down there near CHH/Cape.. combined with a clear dam in the PP NW of there.. .that thing is going to end that way, too - period. Seems we go through this doubt shit every time this sets up ... It's really no different in/when wondering if that BD in April is actually going to come down and bargaining all these rationalities why it won't - how does that end for you ? But ...as I said last hour.. if the high moves off more so than these GFS members have it... that's a different ball game I've seen a few evaluations for the v16 now. On the whole it performs better than the GFS for a lot of things. Primarily you'll probably hear about its 500 mb Z scores. So far it's running a solid 3rd (behind Euro/Ukie) and a definite improvement over V15. It also improved the medium range cold bias. It does however have a significant right of track bias on TCs, and still overmixes the boundary layer and produces lower CAPE than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I've seen a few evaluations for the v16 now. On the whole it performs better than the GFS for a lot of things. Primarily you'll probably hear about its 500 mb Z scores. So far it's running a solid 3rd (behind Euro/Ukie) and a definite improvement over V15. It also improved the medium range cold bias. It does however have a significant right of track bias on TCs, and still overmixes the boundary layer and produces lower CAPE than ideal. Second best model reference right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Euro did try to get that follow up wave up the coast. Regardless of ptype it was a huge nod to the para idea I know you've been pushing this event ... this 'follow up' thing ... it's all good - but it's not really only indirectly related to this thread, which was specific to the NYE and Day time frame. Just sayin' I will say though, that this is following awfully close in space, so it may be a bit dynamics starved ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL That’s if you buy Scooters ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ugly... the pattern is ugly squared... This pattern and this thing ...it's like growing up rural in town of 12,400 people, and only seeing the same girls and so you think that one is so precious ... until you go to Frisco or LA or NYC and see women Ice just tossed his laptop in the direction of Ayer,MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s if you buy Scooters ideas I’m just saying what the euro shows. I think it’s reasonable and the 12z guidance all looked not too dissimilar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Hadn’t looked at this but enjoyed the back and forth posts Is the date for this thread off, I don’t see any precip on 31’st and none prior to 5pm Jan 1 And most is Saturday early am Jan 2...and by the time precip reaches here the Euro has the high pressure gone (East of Maine ) with return South flow and we are talking about ice ...in SNE this could still trend to a terd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: Ice just tossed his laptop in the direction of Ayer,MA. Ice ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ice ? He’s from the Bay Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: But why does it have to be that way? That the thick skinned one stay? I don’t understand your reasoning. THere are lots of good Mets who probably don’t post here for that reason.. #allmetsmatter You take things way too seriously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Sucks we lose the 4th. I liked that one. Pray for a north trend And she back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 18z GFS seems basically identical to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 And honestly ... as a more formal update to the progress of all this... It's changed since this thread started - very glad I left matters at 50% confidence/coverage for southern areas ... I'm not certain at this point either way, if the GFS isn't just attempting to move toward the Euro with the timing/placement of crucial +PP up N and moving E of Maine ...without that, we are sunk for substantive impact... And this will transition rather quickly in that correction. Getting into a ice/mix S and mix snow N was always predicated on that key factor, ...so of course, we then summarily fiddling with f'ing that part of it right up good and proper -par for the course. But we'll see... My experience tho is that once these polar highs start accelerating in the guidance they don't tend to move back west in future cycles ... The entire morphology aloft is differentiating toward something different too... The southern aspect has not gone so far west it is hard to figure what kind of cyclonic model it really fits into. It's almost nothing - or unique... It's merging over SD with something of new Pac arrival ( this fast flow is absolutely killing our winter ... miracle we had that snow storm a couple weeks back)... and if that continues to go that direction ...we could conceivable wash out the cyclone from the charts end up with a fropa while the Rockies build the cap depths. ... I don't think so but there are other visualization certainly plausible... Like to see the GFS back off the west track with S/stream... and see the Euro slow the exit of the lead polar wedging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 41 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 18z GFS seems basically identical to 12z. Yeah, some snow to ice to rain back to snow. Better looking backside upslope signature too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah, some snow to ice to rain back to snow. Better looking backside upslope signature too. It’s kind of a multi-pieced storm up here. There is a front piece before the main show as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It’s kind of a multi-pieced storm up here. There is a front piece before the main show as well. Agreed, that front side should favor your part of NNE and backside upslope probably more likely to be productive over this way. Locally, I’m always hesitant with a warm tongue aloft that it will be more mix and less snow than models show. Or it could be like some of them that show just straight ZR to RN on the front end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Agreed, that front side should favor your part of NNE and backside upslope probably more likely to be productive over this way. Locally, I’m always hesitant with a warm tongue aloft that it will be more mix and less snow than models show. Or it could be like some of them that show just straight ZR to RN on the front end. Also, you never like to rely on two parts storms delivering modeled totals because one part almost always disappoints. The upslope component should be more reliable than anything synoptic for your area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The high slipping East usually doesn’t not slip back west in my recollection . I will likely be in Jackson,NH so I *should be good to go unless this craps the bed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 My hope is for 6-10” with maybe some sleet and ZR to toughen it up. Then freeze it solid. Would go a long way to recreating the base we just lost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Also, you never like to rely on two parts storms delivering modeled totals because one part almost always disappoints. The upslope component should be more reliable than anything synoptic for your area. The weenie rule in the MA at least is you can rely on WAA early snows, not backside CCB snows. Those often disappoint. We will see if that holds true up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: The weenie rule in the MA at least is you can rely on WAA early snows, not backside CCB snows. Those often disappoint. We will see if that holds true up here. CCBs tend to work out much better up here because they are usually a N or NW wind, which gives us a nice orographic enhancement. I’ve seen plenty of storm where the CCB/upslope gave us most of the QPF (usually large storms where the first half down slopes/disappoints and then when everyone else is game over the fun begins for us) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Also, you never like to rely on two parts storms delivering modeled totals because one part almost always disappoints. The upslope component should be more reliable than anything synoptic for your area. That is 100% true in every single event, ha. Synoptic storms have so many more variables than just "wind flow, moisture, mountains". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Definitely won’t write off the upslope after the storm. I have seen what that can do. Piled on another 4-5 inches after the early December storm, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 No upslope here....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, alex said: CCBs tend to work out much better up here because they are usually a N or NW wind, which gives us a nice orographic enhancement. I’ve seen plenty of storm where the CCB/upslope gave us most of the QPF (usually large storms where the first half down slopes/disappoints and then when everyone else is game over the fun begins for us) Yeah your area does really well in CCB's... same with the Green Mountain Spine (J.Spin and ski resorts) and western slopes. When you can get that solid mid-level lift to overlay with strong NW orographic flow there's like a seeder-feeder mechanism on crack. It can wring out some big QPF. Anytime you can get upslope flow going on underneath strong synoptic lift it's going to be a good time, ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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