CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I see a brief period of wintry precip turning into a cold rain for most of SNE. Pretty much. EPS looks like a little snow or ice to start and then mostly cold rain. Does look icy in CNE and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Pretty much. EPS looks like a little snow or ice to start and then mostly cold rain. Does look icy in CNE and north. EPS yesterday had all rain for the area...that model seems to be playing catch up in this situation..no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Pretty much. EPS looks like a little snow or ice to start and then mostly cold rain. Does look icy in CNE and north. Primary is too strong and the high is not locked in place. Does not scream prolonged wintry event except in C/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: EPS yesterday had all rain for the area...that model seems to be playing catch up in this situation..no? It doesn’t look like a big deal south of the pike imo. As soon as the cold comes in, the high retreats and flow turns more easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Primary is too strong and the high is not locked in place. Does not scream prolonged wintry event except in C/NNE. Walt said primary too far west to really be a problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It doesn’t look like a big deal south of the pike imo. As soon as the cold comes in, the high retreats and flow turns more easterly. So the bigger question here is, what is Walt D. seeing that you are not...? He thinks it looks very interesting for interior SNE. You however do not think so. Although you have shifted your thoughts somewhat colder than they were yesterday at this time it seems. I’m no MET, but his ideas seem in deep contrast to yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 EPS as late as yesterday was a sou Easter screamer. Now it’s got wintry precip . It’s been beyond bad on this one. Still catching on. Watch it today as it continues to understand the cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Walt said primary too far west to really be a problem? Normally I;d say yes, but this primary low is strengthening as it moves over the GL. It's a 990mb low once its over Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: So the bigger question here is, what is Walt D. seeing that you are not...? He thinks it looks very interesting for interior SNE. You however do not think so. Although you have shifted your thoughts somewhat colder than they were yesterday at this time it seems. I’m no MET, but his ideas seem in deep contrast to yours? Well I said south of the pike. It looks more icy north where HubbDave is. They’ll be some snow and/or ice to start probably south of pike, but I don’t see anything exciting yet. It’s colder than it looked yesterday, but put me in the category of yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS as late as yesterday was a sou Easter screamer. Now it’s got wintry precip . It’s been beyond bad on this one. Still catching on. Watch it today as it continues to understand the cold Geps is way different with the evolution of the storm. Looks like it ends up under NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: EPS as late as yesterday was a sou Easter screamer. Now it’s got wintry precip . It’s been beyond bad on this one. Still catching on. Watch it today as it continues to understand the cold I have to agree on that idea. Walt D. And Scooter going head to head. 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well I said south of the pike. It looks more icy north where HubbDave is. They’ll be some snow and/or ice to start probably south of pike, but I don’t see anything exciting yet. It’s colder than it looked yesterday, but put me in the category of yawn. You’re trending Scooter...you’re trending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I have to agree on that idea. Walt D. And Scooter going head to head. You’re trending Scooter...you’re trending. #scooterknows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I have to agree on that idea. Walt D. And Scooter going head to head. You’re trending Scooter...you’re trending. I honestly think you guys are misconstruing what people are saying. Some are talking big picture. Maybe that’s what Walt was doing. I’m not going head to head with anyone. Just don’t see it as a big deal in SNE, especially south of pike. Probably gets to be a bigger deal quickly when you get to where Hubby is on north. I don’t think my interpretation is unreasonable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This will take some folks in interior SNE by surprise as a lot were thinking mild rains. Certainly has continued the cold trends we first saw 2-3 days ago on the UK. Let’s watch and see if they continue even to the coast. Yep: Would be a bit odd for the EPS to miss this 1/1-3 event so I temper myself. Still, what the GEFS and multiple models are telling us... lookout for at a minimum, a significant ice event 1/1-2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: #scooterknows And Drag doesn’t? Just now, CoastalWx said: I honestly think you guys are misconstruing what people are saying. Some are talking big picture. Maybe that’s what Walt was doing. I’m not going head to head with anyone. Just don’t see it as a big deal in SNE, especially south of pike. Probably gets to be a bigger deal quickly when you get to where Hubby is on north. I don’t think my interpretation is unreasonable. No it’s cool. I read Walt’s ideas as you did. He and you are in opposition currently. Although you hedged a tad closer to him today than you were yesterday. He feels it’s very interesting for SNE. You feel yawner. That’s about as opposite as it gets. A lil competition is good Scooter..makes everybody better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I honestly think you guys are misconstruing what people are saying. Some are talking big picture. Maybe that’s what Walt was doing. I’m not going head to head with anyone. Just don’t see it as a big deal in SNE, especially south of pike. Probably gets to be a bigger deal quickly when you get to where Hubby is on north. I don’t think my interpretation is unreasonable. I've always found it to be a good idea to punt on serious ice outside of a truly anomalous setup. The ice storm fetishists will always be able to find a picture of some iced-up sick tree from their area that falls on a car and supposedly "verifies the ice storm." Happens all the time in the MA forum. I'm sure there is a tree leaning over in the Tolland area that will be taken out in this event no matter how much ice actually falls, and it will be posted on Twitter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: And Drag doesn’t? No it’s cool. I read Walt’s ideas as you did. He and you are in opposition currently. Although you hedged a tad closer to him today than you were yesterday. He feels it’s very interesting for SNE. You feel yawner. That’s about as opposite as it gets. A lil competition is good Scooter..makes everybody better. HubbDave is SNE. I didn’t say not interesting for SNE. I said south of pike. I guess define interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Real ice storms seem like they would be pretty easy to come by, but in my experience they are much harder to get than 18" of snow. Yet as soon as the models show moderate rain at 31.5 degrees folks start calling it an "ice storm threat." 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: Yep: Would be a bit odd for the EPS to miss this 1/1-3 event so I temper myself. Still, what the GEFS and multiple models are telling us... lookout for at a minimum, a significant ice event 1/1-2. 2008 didn’t hit everyone, it made it just south of the pike into N Oxford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Ec doesn’t pop a sne coastal secondary but gfs does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Ec doesn’t pop a sne coastal secondary but gfs does? 06z GFS and 00z Euro didn't look all that dissimilar to me. Only really outlier right now is the CMC, but I expect it to correct at 12z. It looks like GYX is pretty confident the models have a handle on the basic storm evolution, they are waiting for more data on temps, especially from the mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: HubbDave is SNE. I didn’t say not interesting for SNE. I said south of pike. I guess define interesting? Walt says interesting for 84 area in CT/interior away from coast/water. He was interested yesterday. You were not even remotely on board with anything frozen yesterday. Today you are..albeit still a yawner. So you trended from yesterday. Walt has not. in fact Walt is more interested today than he was yesterday. Maybe you end up right? Maybe he does? I don’t know enough to say who has the right idea today? But I do know who trended from their yesterday ideas, and who did not. Time for you to play with the big dogs Scooter...No guts no glory as they say. That’s how legends are made...ask Harvey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 The wolf is howling today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Ec doesn’t pop a sne coastal secondary but gfs does? Plenty of kinkiness in the isobars and you can see the circulation in the sfc reflection in the wind barbs here around PWM. Decent CAD for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Plenty of kinkiness in the isobars and you can see the circulation in the sfc reflection in the wind barbs here around PWM. Decent CAD for us. I love kinky isobars. Dirty little sl*ts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Real ice storms seem like they would be pretty easy to come by, but in my experience they are much harder to get than 18" of snow. Yet as soon as the models show moderate rain at 31.5 degrees folks start calling it an "ice storm threat." True crippling ice storms are pretty rare. We get a lot of nuisance ice events and even semi-regularly we get moderate ice events in the interior. But they almost always fail to reach half an inch of accretion. (Radial measurement, not flat...big difference which causes confusion on here sometimes) You usually want a mesolow poking NE or NNE off the coast to really lock in the cold/dry dewpoint drain to offset the latent heat release of ZR. When the mesolow is oriented and poking more E or ENE, then it becomes harder to sustain the cold drain. So you’ll get some ZR for sure on that look, but then it ends up slowly going to 33F rain. You also need the QPF. Accretion efficiencies are often in the 0.7 range or even lower on moderate/heavy precipitation, but they will be much higher on light freezing rain. That’s also why many of the bigger ice storms come in waves of lighter precipitation that lasts for a couple days (or even longer like the 1998 ice storm in NNE) 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, wdrag said: Yep: Would be a bit odd for the EPS to miss this 1/1-3 event so I temper myself. Still, what the GEFS and multiple models are telling us... lookout for at a minimum, a significant ice event 1/1-2. I'll agree with Scott on the ORH Hills and Berks. Those areas would stand the best chance in SNE of seeing frozen stuff. Still think they go over to plain rain though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Plenty of kinkiness in the isobars and you can see the circulation in the sfc reflection in the wind barbs here around PWM. Decent CAD for us. and that is the EC and it has been warmest. Lets trend it to faster secondary and more snow. 3-6 snow and then some ice on top would work well. I think Scooters view is very much EMA on an east wind. Not necessarily a killer up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: The wolf is howling today. Just actually enjoying the opposing views of two smart METS that started yesterday. This will be fun. Nothing wrong with some good ol fashioned competition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2020 Author Share Posted December 28, 2020 We may be on the verge of more total systemic morphology -type changes ( ...like the CMC's 00z take on matters by et al ) that will emerge as we press thru these next 2 .. 3 cycles. Supposition so..tfwiw, but this flat fast yet highly energetic flow coming off the Pacific is notoriously ( over generations past .. ) problematic for model handling features in space and time. There have been advancements and gap control techniques that are proven useful, ...however, I find it interesting nonetheless that the 00z begins to nose Nino like insert off the Pacific on the 00z intake and the CMC does this. What that guidance - to me - appears to have done is wagered more momentum/potency in the lead wave, and that staggering jet input coming in afterward is weaker... What this does is, the lead wave then has a stronger backside NVA/confluence stream mechanic post bifurcation up there nearing the Lakes, ..and that then causes an increase ( rather abruptly upon all this mess..) of +PP genesis, ..cold BL and more suppression of the polar boundary... But, we noticed the vestigial southern stream ( post said splitting ..) is also considerably ( now ..) weaker as a result ( again ) of placing more emphasis on the leading jets structures as they are feeding over California - in the virtual realm of the CMC mind you.. Long of the short is, the deeper cold, weaker southern stream is no longer adequate to over come suppression ... then, the system/coastal others are noting becomes an entirely new entity closer to the 3rd ...possibly even 4th of January. It should be noted that this sensitivity to jet mechanics relaying off the Pac was one of our bullet points at the onset of this thread - ..and that this whole period of time is needing refinement. I don't have any reason to presume the CMC's modulation/changes are false... But, I do think it is either going to be right, or, it will have to modulate back to the pack.. Which, I still would like to see the latter get the physically realized grid down their throats before raising confidences... The pack still believes the initial mechanics will split - they all do.. and that the norther counter part will deliver an antecedent cold insertion along the upper OV-NE regions... questions remain as to the southern entrails and how they then roll up underneath.. suppression vs powerful and toting stronger WAA... I don't for the record believe the super-synoptic scale tendency for an arm of polar jet arced along the southern tier of the Canadian Shield, will relent as readily as the EPS suggests, just based upon experience here. It may ... these models don't put out "physically impossible" scenarios... I would also note that having R-wave nadirs near the 100 to 110W lon is a problem across N/A for Euro species/trough inserts digging too much. Back when the 29th appeared a player ... I did post that I thought the period of the 27th through the first week of January was interesting - it seems like that happens more often, where an 'original' take sort of comes back to rear a presentation after the intervening din of emergence finally fail to all but mute them... Maybe we're just in the formulation phases - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now