MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: I agree, what a big chance on cmc. Let’s see what Ukie/euro have in store...cmc is a nice hit for SNE day 7 Gfs is also colder in the long range. Gfs sets up a big block. Its a fight between the NAO and PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I don’t want to give up a storm so NYC and PHL weenies have something to track. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is also colder in the long range. Gfs sets up a big block. Its a fight between the NAO and PNA. A battle between an RNA and NAO is one we probably win from you points north....what is tougher is a raging PAC jet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We want the NYE storm to be sheared out so the 3rd has a chance. Decent shot it shears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A battle between an RNA and NAO is one we probably win from you points north....what is tougher is a raging PAC jet. I agree with this. New England will benefit if the pna cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Decent shot it shears out. Ukie says no Although it develops a weak low next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Ukie says no Although it develops a weak low next week I feel like a cold event for us will not be much of a storm...more precip will also be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I agree with this. New England will benefit if the pna cooperates. What I mean is we don't need the PNA if the NAO is well placed. Mid ATL does IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What I mean is we don't need the PNA if the NAO is well placed. Mid ATL does IMO. We can score if the PNA is near neutral with the block in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 This event has had some of the biggest run to run changes I can recall recently. Big shifts every cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This event has had some of the biggest run to run changes I can recall recently. Big shifts every cycle. Nice gfs run for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We can score if the PNA is near neutral with the block in place. Totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A battle between an RNA and NAO is one we probably win from you points north....what is tougher is a raging PAC jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Thursday through Saturday... Forecast confidence decreases beyond mid week but guidance is beginning to come to a relatively consistent picture indicating not one but two storm systems that will impact the region. The first comes during the day Thursday, the second Friday and Friday night. The biggest question is the exact track of these lows and what that means with regard to precipitation type. Uncertainty is highlighted by the great amount of spatial spread of the surface low tracks in both global ensemble guidance sources, the EPS and GEFS. Even so, we have a decent idea of generally what to expect. That being a lighter, rain event on Thursday followed by a heavier precipitation event on Friday which may very likely include some significant freezing rain, especially in the interior of western MA. This is because as Thursday's shallow mid level trough and sfc frontal system pass by they are replaced by a sfc high pressure which acts to pull in and hold sub freezing air in the low levels. This cold air damming signature would keep <0C air at the sfc which warmer air is lifted above on Friday setting up for a freezing rain situation in those locations. So, while other less impactful outcomes remain in the cards, there is potential for a significant ice event to start the New Year. Beyond Saturday weak ridging and high pressure should bring the return of quiet and seasonable weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Lots of different interpretations. WPC looks less snowy and icy until we’ll into NNE. GYX though looks pretty cold with snow and freezing rain for their areas with warm air not getting until the storm passes. They mention the possibility of a secondary forming off SNE. Maybe it is so far west with the primary that we can really warm much. Certainly not atmospheric river of high dews here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 How's the icing event looking for SNE? Asking for a forum member. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: How's the icing event looking for SNE? Asking for a forum member. Depends on who you ask I spose. Walt Drag seems enthusiastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: How's the icing event looking for SNE? Asking for a forum member. The only ice we will see will be in our margaritas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: The only ice we will see will be in our margaritas I’ll bring the salt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: We want the NYE storm to be sheared out so the 3rd has a chance. 8 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: I agree, what a big chance on cmc. Let’s see what Ukie/euro have in store...cmc is a nice hit for SNE day 7 Wrong thread, This ones for NYE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Yeah nothing has changed .. 37 minutes ago, wdrag said: 06z/28 GEFS trends continue ever more wintry with several inches accumulation of snow I84 region on the first-second... even early 3rd looking interesting. EC 06z run through 90 hours looks interesting. Strongly suggests at a minimum, a 12 hr winter weather event is coming for I84 on 1/1... even sleet to NYC possible early on. Start time uncertain but should be going in earnest during the afternoon. Probably going good in the morning Poconos. Ever more looking more like a snow to ice situation, 12+ hours duration at the top of the 500MB ridge with primary upper low too far west to inflict major early on warmup to our area, provided we get the subfreezing temps here by 12z/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah nothing has changed .. Things are headed the right direction it seems. A few folks might be in denial but they'll come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Things are headed the right direction it seems. A few folks might be in denial but they'll come around. At least we helped Bob understand the situation since he had some questions for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wrong thread, This ones for NYE. Wrong subforum, too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah nothing has changed .. Looking pretty good to me for a long duration wintry wx event on I84... starting time on 1/1 uncertain and if you look at the trend, biggest part of the event could be late 1/2-3. For now going with 1/1 solid afternoon in CT but this is not yet completely resolved. What seems to be well resolved now, is no big low into the eastern Great Lakes. Possible yes, but not likely, due to the closed low initially into the Ohio Valley is too far west of us to negate wintry weather, and it weakens out across the top of the ridge awaiting what might be a better positive tilt short wave late 1/2-early 1/3. Interesting for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, wdrag said: Looking pretty good to me for a long duration wintry wx event on I84... starting time on 1/1 uncertain and if you look at the trend, biggest part of the event could be late 1/2-3. For now going with 1/1 solid afternoon in CT but this is not yet completely resolved. What seems to be well resolved now, is no big low into the eastern Great Lakes. Possible yes, but not likely, due to the closed low initially into the Ohio Valley is too far west of us to negate wintry weather, and it weakens out across the top of the ridge awaiting what might be a better positive tilt short wave late 1/2-early 1/3. Interesting for sure. This will take some folks in interior SNE by surprise as a lot were thinking mild rains. Certainly has continued the cold trends we first saw 2-3 days ago on the UK. Let’s watch and see if they continue even to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Walt D. seems even more enthusiastic today than yesterday for some winter type precip for interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Walt D. seems even more enthusiastic today than yesterday for some winter type precip for interior SNE. The block has a really good chance of shearing this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I see a brief period of wintry precip turning into a cold rain for most of SNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: The block has a really good chance of shearing this out. Well he’s talking g about a multi day set up...which would Imply multiple shortwave’s it seems..? Or am I understanding him incorrectly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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