Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 As this mid to late week has come into a mid range, the previous synopsis of a full latitude trough has apparently succumb to a fast N/stream top heavy flow, and said trough in all guidance has now bifurcated. Complex evolution involving the residual southern stream then rides up into a nascent/model introduced cold insert to 40 N This has sheared the N/ counterpart E across southern Canada and escaping thru the Maritime toward week's end... The back side of this is concomitantly NVA and depending on guidance ...stream confluence is noted. But all guidance now also roll nascent/materializing +PP across Ontario in this wake. That 'growth' in this anticyclone ( I suspect ..) is insidiously important as it likely imposes a bit of cold bust potential due to acceleration of tuck/barrier jet flow/ orientation therein, as the vestigial S aspect of said sheared trough is then rising up the semi-permanent SW Atlan ridge..This feature will pose an overrunning risk as it will ( undoubtedly..) be toting along a respectable theta-e mass ...and due to the morphology of it running up into a confluence, it will 'stretch' in the x-coordinate ... this can manifest in a light to moderate longer duration cold rain/mix/snow ( S-->N) event, or perhaps split into multi wave/pulse even spanng 24 to 36 hours .. This is all speculative due to the fact that although these visions are barrowed from climo and experience... the offending tropospheric wave features are just nosing into the denser more physically realized sonde array this evening an overnight... Seems to be a recurring concern as of late, doesn't it. Prelim slated for refining: - Right now I would say light to moderate event by our storm-climate standards. - I would also correct the GFS 2-m temps down 3-5F N of the boundary ...and don't be afraid to imagine 15 or even 20F temp compression along 10 miles of frontal position in a situation like this. - Appears to me to be 70 or % for advisory ice/snow in CNE with low probability for warning ... 50% for these down as far as mid CT/NW RI, but these headlines probably get headachy due to ice S vs a mix of mangled bullet and snow N. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 You brought me 18” with the early December storm thread. I will ride this extremely verbose horse. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You brought me 18” with the early December storm thread. I will ride this extremely verbose horse. Lol ... I kept that brief, too On a PC that's not much - these phone make things seem a lot longer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Couple guys have a rainer . They’ve locked in rain for all of SNE. Let’s watch them and see how they react 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Couple guys have a rainer . They’ve locked in rain for all of SNE. Let’s watch them and see how they react I'm hoping you get your ice so i can get my snow on this next one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I'm hoping you get your ice so i can get my snow on this next one. Agreed. I truly believe that’s the final outcome . It’ll be intertesting to see if they admit their errors or what exactly they try and do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Agreed. I truly believe that’s the final outcome . It’ll be intertesting to see if they admit their errors or what exactly they try and do. When does the new Davis come in? I want it damaged right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: When does the new Davis come in? I want it damaged right away. I chose 3 day delivery and paid for it. Should be here mid week. I’m so jealous watching Lambeau tonight. A driving snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I chose 3 day delivery and paid for it. Should be here mid week. I’m so jealous watching Lambeau tonight. A driving snowstorm What? New Davis? Which model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What? New Davis? Which model Vantage Vue with Weatherlink . Automatically uploads data online or app 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Vantage Vue with Weatherlink . Automatically uploads data online or app Nice had that at work. Have your daughters do the software uplink... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 EPS still wants no part of frozen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS still wants no part of frozen Got the next frame? 12z op had no precip up here until after 18z...curious what the slower solutions look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Got the next frame? 12z op had no precip up here until after 18z...curious what the slower solutions look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Yup...definitely the icier solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Couple guys have a rainer . They’ve locked in rain for all of SNE. Let’s watch them and see how they react It’ll be fun to see how both camps react for entertainment... seems both sides of the coin have locked in their solutions at some substantial lead times, ha. Rain or winter. Forecasts locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yup...definitely the icier solutions. Yea I don't live there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 fun to see something to track, hopefully we trend colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Couple guys have a rainer . They’ve locked in rain for all of SNE. Let’s watch them and see how they react I haven't locked anything in. I mentioned in the blog the path to a colder outcome...the SW is sheared. I just don't favor a major ice storm at this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Sleet for some. I would put the over/under on ice reports >0.1” in SNE at 1 and I would take the under. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Seems like a bigger cold press on the GFS through 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 GFS starting as snow and ice in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Takes the best precip north of the area, but still a decent run. Between the 12z and 18z basically. Onto the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Wait till you see the cmc. Farther south HP It doesn’t have precip north of md line at 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wait till you see the cmc. Farther south HP It doesn’t have precip north of md line at 120 hrs Cold NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 0z Para for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Wow CMC is cold. Precip hits a brick wall north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Wow cmc has the para coastal too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wow cmc has the para coastal too We want the NYE storm to be sheared out so the 3rd has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 I agree, what a big chance on cmc. Let’s see what Ukie/euro have in store...cmc is a nice hit for SNE day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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