40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Potential analog? Not bad... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like NCEP has it, but not so on other vendor sites. Whoosh! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 maybe we can get some snow last week of January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 EPS big time -NAO near day 10 on this run. Gonna need that to fight -EPO cold dump into west and Plains. Hopefully that -NAO is real. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: EPS big time -NAO near day 10 on this run. Gonna need that to fight -EPO cold dump into west and Plains. Hopefully that -NAO is real. Seems sufficiently north too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Seems sufficiently north too Big low over Nick's fanny in NewFoundland. Probably a good look with a big trough out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 What's with H5 lows weakening as they reach the coast? I feel like I've seen that happen pretty frequently this year. A la nina thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS big time -NAO near day 10 on this run. Gonna need that to fight -EPO cold dump into west and Plains. Hopefully that -NAO is real. Kinda has that Dec 10- Jan 11 look no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Man that’s one of the best atlantic Blocks I’ve seen on the eps long range mean. Quite a signal. Maybe an overrunning potential & swfe with -pna getting the stj into play? Hour 276 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Man that’s one of the best atlantic Blocks I’ve seen on the eps long range mean. Quite a signal. Maybe an overrunning potential & swfe with -pna getting the stj into play? Can we get it under day 10 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Kinda has that Dec 10- Jan 11 look no? I'd have to look back. I thought that had more ridging near west coast of NAMR? This is more of a -EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Euro for this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 If we're exchanging the favorable PNA for a favorable EPO, what is an example of a pattern where those two are coexistent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Big low over Nick's fanny in NewFoundland. Probably a good look with a big trough out west. That is a Jan 2011 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: If we're exchanging the favorable PNA for a favorable EPO, what is an example of a pattern where those two are coexistent? Feb 2010...Jan 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: If we're exchanging the favorable PNA for a favorable EPO, what is an example of a pattern where those two are coexistent? I know how important the PNA is for major east coast winter storms, but I will take that trade given the hand we were dealt....awful blend of cold deficit and suppression. Get me the cold supply and activity, and I'll take my chances with track nuances...especially given NAO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd have to look back. I thought that had more ridging near west coast of NAMR? This is more of a -EPO. Jan 2011 storm took place during the transition from -NAO/PNA to +NAO/PNA. I think the west coast ridging was more later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Kinda has that Dec 10- Jan 11 look no? Beat me to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS big time -NAO near day 10 on this run. Gonna need that to fight -EPO cold dump into west and Plains. Hopefully that -NAO is real. Like I said earlier, without that NAO block, this is January-February 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 27 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: What's with H5 lows weakening as they reach the coast? I feel like I've seen that happen pretty frequently this year. A la nina thing? I mentioned that, too....I think we just need a reshuffling. Track and evolutionary timeline of low pressure areas is unfavorable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Like I said earlier, without that NAO block, this is January-February 2019. IIRC, didn't we hit like 80F in Fitchburg in Feb 2019? Or maybe that was 2018? The years blend together after a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: IIRC, didn't we hit like 80F in Fitchburg in Feb 2019? Or maybe that was 2018? The years blend together after a while. I believe it was both years in a row.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: I believe it was both years in a row.... Yup...I think you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 It'll be wrong.. can't construct -NAO blocking ridges when there's too much wind velocity feeding in to the domain at mid troposphere - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: It'll be wrong.. can't construct -NAO blocking ridges when there's too much wind velocity feeding in to the domain at mid troposphere - Maybe you’ll be wrong? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I believe it was both years in a row.... 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Yup...I think you're right. 2017 and 2018....2019 never got that warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 2017 and 2018....2019 never got that warm. I was in VA for Feb 2017. I remember a week of 80s there in mid-Feb. It did get chilly in early March though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 2017 and 2018....2019 never got that warm. Ok thanks. I knew it was two years in a row..and ‘18 was one of them. Just wasn’t sure if it was the year after or before? Thanks for clearing that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It'll be wrong.. can't construct -NAO blocking ridges when there's too much wind velocity feeding in to the domain at mid troposphere - We've had -PNA/-NAO deals before. I think overall the type of -NAO ridging is more closer to Greenland in those cases? It's also far out there, but even the less bullish guidance did have a semblance of ridging there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Late Dec 2010/early Jan 2011 had the Aleutian/EPO ridging with a big -NAO. Then we trended to more western ridging the 2nd half of Jan 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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