40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 This is pretty much 2018-2019 with an NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Judah's blog tonight..........he will say this is exactly what he predicted (lol) However, I remain optimistic.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Not trying to beat a dead horse...but ‘15 didn’t get rolling until 1/27. Melts galore up to that point. Now before everybody goes ape-shit and says ‘15 isn’t walking in, I agree; and I’m not suggesting that. The point is...plenty of big hits/seasons that we look back on with great fondness, did not get going until very late January, and sometimes even after that. I’ll take our chances with a -PNA and some -EPO along with a -NAO, that’s not a bad set up imo. Bring it. I just want some snow on the ground....even a few inches would be fine at this point...I still have a frozen solid coating on the north facing side of the house from what seems like weeks ago. Lows in the teens, highs in the 30s has kept the ground mostly frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 I think the GEFS look best next week, followed by the GEPS and of course, the most accurate EPS third. They are all decent, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 57 minutes ago, snowman19 said: 100%. The depicted upcoming pattern is a real bad one for everyone south of New England, even southern New England near the coast may have issues This isnt true at all. If the NAO stays negative than the battle ground can be anywhere but this does favor SNE northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is pretty much 2018-2019 with an NAO. Mid Jan 2019 to early March 2019 was epic, at least locally. Nearly 50" in that 6-7 week stretch. How did your area fare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is pretty much 2018-2019 with an NAO. You add the -NAO to a couple of those events in 19 and it could have have been a whole lot more snow, verses the Ice we got. Not a bad look imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Mid Jan 2019 to early March 2019 was epic, at least locally. Nearly 50" in that 6-7 week stretch. How did your area fare? Pretty poor winter here, but with a neg NAO, probably better here and not as good there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 We still need to see how long the neg NAO/AO remains.....I still feel like it goes in February, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Not trying to beat a dead horse...but ‘15 didn’t get rolling until 1/27. Melts galore up to that point. Now before everybody goes ape-shit and says ‘15 isn’t walking in, I agree; and I’m not suggesting that. The point is...plenty of big hits/seasons that we look back on with great fondness, did not get going until very late January, and sometimes even after that. I’ll take our chances with a -PNA and some -EPO along with a -NAO, that’s not a bad set up imo. Bring it. Ehh I'll sell that. Dec '14 was ugly and that extended to Jan 5. But Jan 8 had a low of -1 and a -20 anomaly. The only real melt beyond that was a 18h period (if memory serves me) which was a pretty good ZR event up north. None of this San Diego-but-colder weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Kind of impressive: the Charles is iced over east of the Longfellow, despite the temperature at BOS not having fallen below 24 this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah.... I’d rather not be relying on a 2013 or 2015 second half... that just isn’t going to play out most of the time. We can talk about potential until we are blue in the face, but reality is, we are coming up on a month between snow events here, in the heart of winter. Those are the facts. Facts are scarey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Feb 5-6 was a great SWFE that stayed all snow pike northward. Feb 13-14 was a Miller A that was kind of cruddy inside of 128 but west of there it was excellent....had about a foot in that one. Couple other solid events on 2/17 and an advisory scraper on 2/15. ORH actually had 41.5" that month. I wouldn't expect a repeat but there's potential obviously because when you bend back the PJ like that, it tends to be pretty active rather than crushing everything. was that the year of that super cold Feb 14? Or was that 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pattern at the end of ensemble runs reminds me of Feb '14 quite a bit...maybe better NAO and SE ridge trying to flex more....opposing forces there. Meat grinder (negative) potential? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Place a black hole at the end of that line around LI and everyone can follow it to its never ending bottom. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, ariof said: Kind of impressive: the Charles is iced over east of the Longfellow, despite the temperature at BOS not having fallen below 24 this month It hasn't been more than 8 degrees from freezing in Boston since Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Pattern at the end of ensemble runs reminds me of Feb '14 quite a bit...maybe better NAO and SE ridge trying to flex more....opposing forces there. We will need similar to salvage at least some of this season, 30+" that year in Feb up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, ariof said: Kind of impressive: the Charles is iced over east of the Longfellow, despite the temperature at BOS not having fallen below 24 this month Long nights still and really only 6-8 hours of each day is above freezing most days and not by a lot with low dewpoints keeping wetbulb below freezing. West side of BOS there is prob getting 5-7F colder than Logan at night too. Not ideal for building ice, but it will consistently grow/thicken in that type of environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Pretty cool synoptic setup at the end of gfs run. Not saying it'll happen obviously, but cool to see a powerful cut-off low traverse the continent and just sit south of ACK. Very cold storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Long nights still and really only 6-8 hours of each day is above freezing most days and not by a lot with low dewpoints keeping wetbulb below freezing. West side of BOS there is prob getting 5-7F colder than Logan at night too. Not ideal for building ice, but it will consistently grow/thicken in that type of environment. Sounds like only In Tblizz area of Taunton there’s no ice. Everywhere else has skating and ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: We will need similar to salvage at least some of this season, 30+" that year in Feb up here. I have a feeling it's going to get pretty active given the look....good news for NNE (and hopefully here in SNE) as latter January and February are less prone to cutters, so a lot of the precip will probably be snow/frozen. We'll see if we can get back on track. A lot will probably depend on if we can keep a good arctic pattern deeper into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 44 minutes ago, ariof said: Ehh I'll sell that. Dec '14 was ugly and that extended to Jan 5. But Jan 8 had a low of -1 and a -20 anomaly. The only real melt beyond that was a 18h period (if memory serves me) which was a pretty good ZR event up north. None of this San Diego-but-colder weather. Don’t sell it cuz I meant “Melt” in the sense that folks were coming unhinged(Melting) in SNE that year big time. And it flipped and the rest was history. That was the point...not melting literally lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Isn’t there always a storm forecast at the end of the run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 46 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yup. Not too far away from this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, Brewbeer said: Isn’t there always a storm forecast at the end of the run? It's the old bait and switch. Or, in our case it's like watching the preview for the movie Twister when it showed the tire coming at the camera that never happened in the movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I'm laughing at all that are freaking out. Things can change so quickly on these model runs. It's not very often where we get consistant snows ( at least here in SNE ) and cold. It is a hit or miss in this region. Do I think we are done and nothing else will happen. Not by a long shot. Even if its one more big storm and a few smaller ones in between, I'd be happy with that. In the end though, just happy to wake up everyday to my family being healthy and alive. What I do know is once we get that storm to materialize and come to fruition, all this cliff jumping or writing off Winter will stop ( for the moment..lol ). Try to sit back and enjoy the ride. We're not done. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a disaster all mets here outright hyping an epic cold, snowy pattern. It's surely coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 NCEP having issues again with the GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: NCEP having issues again with the GFS run? Looks that way but the GGEM is coming in pretty fast. Continues to have a little hopeful small amounts I84, western part for the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 We will see alot of this if a negative PNA and negative EPO develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now