Henry's Weather Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I'd think this dateline ridge would be more helpful for us than a weak-sauce PNA downstream of a raging Aleutian low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps also develops a negative EPO which will help us . Something needs to give in this pattern. Yeah it sort of bridges into the North Pole. It's definitely a cutter or SWFE risk in that pattern, but with a -NAO, that helps with redevelopers too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it sort of bridges into the North Pole. It's definitely a cutter or SWFE risk in that pattern, but with a -NAO, that helps with redevelopers too. Everything is getting squashed right now. Something needs to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps also develops a negative EPO which will help us . Something needs to give in this pattern. It will. I’m not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everything is getting squashed right now. Something needs to change. Too many shortwaves atm. I doubt that’s the whole reason and I’m not sure why that is exactly but so much stuff flying around just seems like a bad recipe...ie, too many cooks in the kitchen analogy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps also develops a negative EPO which will help us . Something needs to give in this pattern. You are about to snap....just let go and melt...its healthy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it sort of bridges into the North Pole. It's definitely a cutter or SWFE risk in that pattern, but with a -NAO, that helps with redevelopers too. The PNA has really thrown me for a loop....I was ass backwards. Thought it would be negative early on, then trend more positively....opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 11 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I could agree with that, it's pretty close to what the geography says. I always think of it based on the shape of the East Coast and Atlantic Ocean... if you smooth out the east coast you can easily see the anomaly that sticks out into the Atlantic. Obviously the coastal plain extends north and south of that line but, that's the larger scale coastline, IMO. Place a black hole at the end of that line around LI and everyone can follow it to its never ending bottom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everything is getting squashed right now. Something needs to change. Something will change....storms will go from being squashed to cutting. Should be okay here with SWFE, but glad we don't live there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Something will change....storms will go from being squashed to cutting. Should be okay here with SWFE, but glad we don't live there. 100%. The depicted upcoming pattern is a real bad one for everyone south of New England, even southern New England near the coast may have issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 I'll take my chances with a SWFE as well. Some of our biggest storms here are from SWFE's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, snowman19 said: 100%. The depicted upcoming pattern is a real bad one for everyone south of New England, even southern New England near the coast may have issues See, here is the thing....3-5" before a bit of sleet and rain is an issue I'd rather deal with, than 3-5 posts per week due to a mid winter drought. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 With an NAO, some of those will be late-bloomer redevelopers, too......good pattern the further NE one goes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 I have a feeling latitude will be a valuable commodity for the balance of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Not trying to beat a dead horse...but ‘15 didn’t get rolling until 1/27. Melts galore up to that point. Now before everybody goes ape-shit and says ‘15 isn’t walking in, I agree; and I’m not suggesting that. The point is...plenty of big hits/seasons that we look back on with great fondness, did not get going until very late January, and sometimes even after that. I’ll take our chances with a -PNA and some -EPO along with a -NAO, that’s not a bad set up imo. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have a feeling latitude will be a valuable commodity for the balance of this winter. Congrats dendrite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Not trying to beat a dead horse...but ‘15 didn’t get rolling until 1/27. Melts galore up to that point. Now before everybody goes ape-shit and says ‘15 isn’t walking in, I agree; and I’m not suggesting that. The point is...plenty of big hits/seasons that we look back on with great fondness, did not get going until very late January, and sometimes even after that. I’ll take our chances with a -PNA and some -EPO along with a -NAO, that’s not a bad set up imo. Bring it. Yea, very reasonable post. It should get better, especially for NE....just don't expect a top 10 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, WinterWolf said: Not trying to beat a dead horse...but ‘15 didn’t get rolling until 1/27. Melts galore up to that point. Now before everybody goes ape-shit and says ‘15 isn’t walking in, I agree; and I’m not suggesting that. The point is...plenty of big hits/seasons that we look back on with great fondness, did not get going until very late January, and sometimes even after that. I’ll take our chances with a -PNA and some -EPO along with a -NAO, that’s not a bad set up imo. Bring it. Yeah.... I’d rather not be relying on a 2013 or 2015 second half... that just isn’t going to play out most of the time. We can talk about potential until we are blue in the face, but reality is, we are coming up on a month between snow events here, in the heart of winter. Those are the facts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Congrats dendrite He should do well, but if I had to pick a poster to congratulate, it would be Jeff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah.... I’d rather not be relying on a 2013 or 2015 second half... that just isn’t going to play out most of the time. We can talk about potential until we are blue in the face, but reality is, we are coming up on a month between snow events here, in the heart of winter. Those are the facts. Not relying on anything..just stating some previous facts in my post..nothing more. Lots of seasons were non starters way past this one currently. And I’m not banking on a top 10 season at all. Just normal snowfall will be fine for me. And I think that’s more than attainable at this current juncture. Nothing more intended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Pattern at the end of ensemble runs reminds me of Feb '14 quite a bit...maybe better NAO and SE ridge trying to flex more....opposing forces there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pattern at the end of ensemble runs reminds me of Feb '14 quite a bit...maybe better NAO and SE ridge trying to flex more....opposing forces there. That winter is kind of a blur to me bc I lost my dad in early March 2014, but I do remember it being relatively disappointing IMBY, despite an overall good look. March was cold and dry....I remember at least one moderate hit in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 What a disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 I also remember that there was one juggernaut of an event in March that just barely whiffed us, and crushed the maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That winter is kind of a blur to me bc I lost my dad in March, but I do remember it being relatively disappointing IMBY, despite an overall good look. March was cold and dry....I remember at least one moderate hit in February. Feb 5-6 was a great SWFE that stayed all snow pike northward. Feb 13-14 was a Miller A that was kind of cruddy inside of 128 but west of there it was excellent....had about a foot in that one. Couple other solid events on 2/17 and an advisory scraper on 2/15. ORH actually had 41.5" that month. I wouldn't expect a repeat but there's potential obviously because when you bend back the PJ like that, it tends to be pretty active rather than crushing everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Feb 5-6 was a great SWFE that stayed all snow pike northward. Feb 13-14 was a Miller A that was kind of cruddy inside of 128 but west of there it was excellent....had about a foot in that one. Couple other solid events on 2/17 and an advisory scraper on 2/15. ORH actually had 41.5" that month. I wouldn't expect a repeat but there's potential obviously because when you bend back the PJ like that, it tends to be pretty active rather than crushing everything. Not an ideal set up for a big one because that pattern can be prone to gradient saturation, but if you time things right, you can steal a big kahuna redeveloper.....worst case, it is an active look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it sort of bridges into the North Pole. It's definitely a cutter or SWFE risk in that pattern, but with a -NAO, that helps with redevelopers too. why isn't the -nao helping us next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I also remember that there was one juggernaut of an event in March that just barely whiffed us, and crushed the maritimes. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2014_nor'easter If I recall I had 2-3" of sand..Nantucket maybe 6"+? But yeah just barely grazed us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 I know given the antecedent frustration, there are many who will be disenfranchised that we may not see an ideal pattern, but I can tell you that I will gladly trade the PNA for a negative EPO. IMHO, it is the PAC jet that has plagued this season. We are going to have cold around moving forward, and the storm track will not be suppressed. This is actually the pattern that I expected for the first half, but it took the Pacific awhile to cooperate and arrange accordingly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: why isn't the -nao helping us next weekend? Bad timing....the block fades a bit before redeveloping. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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