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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps also develops a negative EPO which will help us . Something needs to give in this pattern. 

Yeah it sort of bridges into the North Pole. It's definitely a cutter or SWFE risk in that pattern, but with a -NAO, that helps with redevelopers too.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah it sort of bridges into the North Pole. It's definitely a cutter or SWFE risk in that pattern, but with a -NAO, that helps with redevelopers too.

The PNA has really thrown me for a loop....I was ass backwards. Thought it would be negative early on, then trend more positively....opposite.

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I could agree with that, it's pretty close to what the geography says.

I always think of it based on the shape of the East Coast and Atlantic Ocean... if you smooth out the east coast you can easily see the anomaly that sticks out into the Atlantic.  Obviously the coastal plain extends north and south of that line but, that's the larger scale coastline, IMO. 

5064.gif.8821dc16fb4317683d1ec5ef9572decb.gif

northeastern-usa.jpe.e107ecb2f3bf4dd6bb255bebc52cff70.jpe

 

Place a black hole at the end of that line around LI and everyone can follow it to its never ending bottom.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something will change....storms will go from being squashed to cutting. Should be okay here with SWFE, but glad we don't live there. 

100%. The depicted upcoming pattern is a real bad one for everyone south of New England, even southern New England near the coast may have issues

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Just now, snowman19 said:

100%. The depicted upcoming pattern is a real bad one for everyone south of New England, even southern New England near the coast may have issues

See, here is the thing....3-5" before a bit of sleet and rain is an issue I'd rather deal with, than 3-5 posts per week due to a mid winter drought. 

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Not trying to beat a dead horse...but ‘15 didn’t get rolling until 1/27.  Melts galore up to that point.  Now before everybody goes ape-shit and says ‘15 isn’t walking in, I agree; and I’m not suggesting that.   The point is...plenty of big hits/seasons that we look back on with great fondness, did not get going until very late January, and sometimes even after that.   
 

I’ll take our chances with a -PNA and some -EPO  along with a -NAO, that’s not a bad set up imo. Bring it. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Not trying to beat a dead horse...but ‘15 didn’t get rolling until 1/27.  Melts galore up to that point.  Now before everybody goes ape-shit and says ‘15 isn’t walking in, I agree; and I’m not suggesting that.   The point is...plenty of big hits/seasons that we look back on with great fondness, did not get going until very late January, and sometimes even after that.   
 

I’ll take our chances with a -PNA and some -EPO  along with a -NAO, that’s not a bad set up imo. Bring it. 

Yea, very reasonable post. It should get better, especially for NE....just don't expect a top 10 season.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Not trying to beat a dead horse...but ‘15 didn’t get rolling until 1/27.  Melts galore up to that point.  Now before everybody goes ape-shit and says ‘15 isn’t walking in, I agree; and I’m not suggesting that.   The point is...plenty of big hits/seasons that we look back on with great fondness, did not get going until very late January, and sometimes even after that.   
 

I’ll take our chances with a -PNA and some -EPO  along with a -NAO, that’s not a bad set up imo. Bring it. 

Yeah.... I’d rather not be relying on a 2013 or 2015 second half... that just isn’t going to play out most of the time.

We can talk about potential until we are blue in the face, but reality is, we are coming up on a month between snow events here, in the heart of winter. Those are the facts.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah.... I’d rather not be relying on a 2013 or 2015 second half... that just isn’t going to play out most of the time.

We can talk about potential until we are blue in the face, but reality is, we are coming up on a month between snow events here, in the heart of winter. Those are the facts.

Not relying on anything..just stating some previous facts in my post..nothing more. Lots of seasons were non starters way past this one currently. 
 

And I’m not banking on a top 10 season at all. Just normal snowfall will be fine for me.  And I think that’s more than attainable at this current juncture. Nothing more intended. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern at the end of ensemble runs reminds me of Feb '14 quite a bit...maybe better NAO and SE ridge trying to flex more....opposing forces there.

That winter is kind of a blur to me bc I lost  my dad in early March 2014, but I do remember it being relatively disappointing IMBY, despite an overall good look. March was cold and dry....I remember at least one moderate hit in February.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That winter is kind of a blur to me bc I lost  my dad in March, but I do remember it being relatively disappointing IMBY, despite an overall good look. March was cold and dry....I remember at least one moderate hit in February.

Feb 5-6 was a great SWFE that stayed all snow pike northward. Feb 13-14 was a Miller A that was kind of cruddy inside of 128 but west of there it was excellent....had about a foot in that one. Couple other solid events on 2/17 and an advisory scraper on 2/15.

ORH actually had 41.5" that month. I wouldn't expect a repeat but there's potential obviously because when you bend back the PJ like that, it tends to be pretty active rather than crushing everything.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 5-6 was a great SWFE that stayed all snow pike northward. Feb 13-14 was a Miller A that was kind of cruddy inside of 128 but west of there it was excellent....had about a foot in that one. Couple other solid events on 2/17 and an advisory scraper on 2/15.

ORH actually had 41.5" that month. I wouldn't expect a repeat but there's potential obviously because when you bend back the PJ like that, it tends to be pretty active rather than crushing everything.

Not an ideal set up for a big one because that pattern can be prone to gradient saturation, but if you time things right, you can steal a big kahuna redeveloper.....worst case, it is an active look.

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I know given the antecedent frustration, there are many who will be disenfranchised that we may not see an ideal pattern, but I can tell you that I will gladly trade the PNA for a negative EPO. IMHO, it is the PAC jet that has plagued this season. We are going to have cold around moving forward, and the storm track will not be suppressed. 

This is actually the pattern that I expected for the first half, but it took the Pacific awhile to cooperate and arrange accordingly.

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