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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think I was wrong on this one.

The true gradient in terms of snowfall chances is definitely along the higher terrain of SNE; reality for winter weather is likely a much more nuanced boundary line like you suggested.  You are right there, we were just looking at it from different angles.  It's always a good discussion when it includes climate zones.

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All sarcasm aside.....I think if the 1/20 threat fails to produce a widespread warning event and there is nothing else imminent, then it's fair to really question some of the more optimistic ideologies in relation to this season. Getting close to shit or get off of the pot time....bad luck or not. Those backloaded seasons that really turn around tend do it by around the 20th, give or take....I'll bet against February 1969 walking through the door.

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It's interesting that the EPS retros the ridge to the dateline (classic -PNA), but also develops more of a 50/50 low. So we're probably going to see a mix of cutters and Miller Bs on the guidance. I don't see how that would be dry IMO. If we do see that dateline ridge as advertised by the EPS, that -NAO shown and the 50/50 low will ever so be vital.

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41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's interesting that the EPS retros the ridge to the dateline (classic -PNA), but also develops more of a 50/50 low. So we're probably going to see a mix of cutters and Miller Bs on the guidance. I don't see how that would be dry IMO. If we do see that dateline ridge as advertised by the EPS, that -NAO shown and the 50/50 low will ever so be vital.

Shaking up the pattern will be welcome. If we lose the NAO then at least it will mild up!

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's interesting that the EPS retros the ridge to the dateline (classic -PNA), but also develops more of a 50/50 low. So we're probably going to see a mix of cutters and Miller Bs on the guidance. I don't see how that would be dry IMO. If we do see that dateline ridge as advertised by the EPS, that -NAO shown and the 50/50 low will ever so be vital.

The models have moved the RNA pattern up by a lot. They originally had it for early February, now they have it in place by 1/21

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's interesting that the EPS retros the ridge to the dateline (classic -PNA), but also develops more of a 50/50 low. So we're probably going to see a mix of cutters and Miller Bs on the guidance. I don't see how that would be dry IMO. If we do see that dateline ridge as advertised by the EPS, that -NAO shown and the 50/50 low will ever so be vital.

Eps also develops a negative EPO which will help us . Something needs to give in this pattern. 

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