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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just going to have to disagree. Weather has little to do with luck . It’s science and science isn’t luck 

Of course there is luck, but you’re saying everything happens for a reason. Well true I guess. But let’s  say you have an overall favorable pattern or a SSW for example. Maybe the cold goes to Europe instead. That’s bad luck in a way because you know those can be favorable here, but sometimes it’s the other side of the globe getting it. 
Same with a favorable pattern. Let’s say you have a nice big ridge out west. Normally a good thing. You then have a Scooter shit streak in Canada that’s just enough to keep the flow up there from buckling. Instead of a low curling up the coast, it’s out to sea. Those are the little minor things that sometimes happen. You can’t see them days in advance. I said this yesterday. People have no idea what it takes to get a good streak of winter weather going.  The ennui as Ray would say is more common in winter around here. We don’t average a whole lot of snow overall. Get used to it. People have been spoiled by recent winters. Back to reality. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Of course there is luck, but you’re saying everything happens for a reason. Well true I guess. But let’s  say you have an overall favorable pattern or a SSW for example. Maybe the cold goes to Europe instead. That’s bad luck in a way because you know those can be favorable here, but sometimes it’s the other side of the globe getting it. 
Same with a favorable pattern. Let’s say you have a nice big ridge out west. Normally a good thing. You then have a Scooter shit streak in Canada that’s just enough to keep the flow up there from buckling. Instead of a low curling up the coast, it’s out to sea. Those are the little minor things that sometimes happen. You can’t see them days in advance. I said this yesterday. People have no idea what it takes to get a good streak of winter weather going.  The ennui as Ray would say is more common in winter around here. We don’t average a whole lot of snow overall. Get used to it. People have been spoiled by recent winters. Back to reality. 

He’s always yearned for winters of yore....he’s getting a taste of them. It’s like a milder version of the 1980s/early 1990s :lol:

 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Of course there is luck, but you’re saying everything happens for a reason. Well true I guess. But let’s  say you have an overall favorable pattern or a SSW for example. Maybe the cold goes to Europe instead. That’s bad luck in a way because you know those can be favorable here, but sometimes it’s the other side of the globe getting it. 
Same with a favorable pattern. Let’s say you have a nice big ridge out west. Normally a good thing. You then have a Scooter shit streak in Canada that’s just enough to keep the flow up there from buckling. Instead of a low curling up the coast, it’s out to sea. Those are the little minor things that sometimes happen. You can’t see them days in advance. I said this yesterday. People have no idea what it takes to get a good streak of winter weather going.  The ennui as Ray would say is more common in winter around here. We don’t average a whole lot of snow overall. Get used to it. People have been spoiled by recent winters. Back to reality. 

Maybe parts of this bear some truth, but to go a full month of January without snow other than that dusting last Sunday .. I’m not sure that happened even in the 80’s

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He’s always yearned for winters of yore....he’s getting a taste of them. It’s like a milder version of the 1980s/early 1990s :lol:

 

Bringing Kevin back to the days of when he walked into the boys room and caught kids smoking, and then got a swirly to make sure he doesn’t tell the teachers. 

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe parts of this bear some truth, but to go a full month of January without snow other than that dusting last Sunday .. I’m not sure that happened even in the 80’s

It’s the 10th..just relax.  It’s going to snow this January.  Something is going to pop...maybe it doesn’t pop til the last weak?  Maybe something comes out of nowhere and surprises us.  The pattern is improving as we move ahead now..and that will be conducive for Chances.  
 

I don’t think we strike out on every single chance over the next three weeks of January, especially in a pretty good set up.  I mean even the ratter of ‘12 gave us a 6-7” event in January that year. And then went snowless the rest of the way.  And this won’t be like that year.  
 

Hang tough and we keep the trucks clean until it snows at least. :-)

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This month is a great example of why you simply cannot base or make forecasts off of medium to long range models. They generally are never correct. Until you get under 2-3 days to say “ The last 15 days of the month looks great , with cold and storm chances”.. you really can’t do that and have much chance of being right. It’s more pattern recognition and persistence forecasting until something physically breaks that persistence. I’m more convinced now than ever. 

I strongly agree with this. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just washed mine yesterday....was thinking the same.

Other than the salt dust on the roads it’s a positive. Just gotta wipe down the dust each day . At the other end of spectrum is Scooter and Will who consider their car washes when it rains , while the kids learn to write the alphabet in the dust on the dash 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They are just tools, you shouldn't base a fore at enteroy off them, or we wouldn't even need mets.

Precisely. 

The social media weenies take those things as gospel and assume whatever they're throwing out in the 7-10+ day timeframe is precisely going to happen. 

Anyways, it will be fun watching the Pacific the next several days because if we can extend ridging into the Gulf of Alaska and sort of cement that there for a bit...the tune of winter could change (even if briefly). 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than the salt dust on the roads it’s a positive. Just gotta wipe down the dust each day . At the other end of spectrum is Scooter and Will who consider their car washes when it rains , while the kids learn to write the alphabet in the dust on the dash 

You’re right. Could care less. Clean it when I can. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Precisely. 

The social media weenies take those things as gospel and assume whatever they're throwing out in the 7-10+ day timeframe is precisely going to happen. 

Anyways, it will be fun watching the Pacific the next several days because if we can extend ridging into the Gulf of Alaska and sort of cement that there for a bit...the tune of winter could change (even if briefly). 

Lol, you just said you agreed with Kev, and now you agree here too? They’re opposite statements..you can’t agree with both Wiz. 

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