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40/70 Benchmark
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Scott, Ray, I think that area of strong vorticity, within the shortwave trough that arrives over the GRT Lakes between 72-84 hours, depending upon which model you use and which timing is ultimately correct in the end, has a chance to dig more and become a miller B.  The question becomes if the trough can tilt negatively at all before reaching the coastline of NJ than it may have a shot at producing snow on the coast.  Don't know!  However, the 00z guidance is coming around on the overall synoptic scale pattern like a giant H5 low and trough moving into the Great Lakes and central US.  This longwave trough is perpetuated by a long wave +PNA ridge that develops in the inter PNA/EPO regions.

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When you start so great in mid December and then get absolutely bent over by the grinch and the grinches ugly step sister a week later you can in no way act like anything that happens later is redeeming in any way....the season is an all time ratter regardless....if we get a Nemo in here in 3 weeks I’m not rejoicing.....got it? It’s cancelled at this point.....LFG May 1

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1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

When you start so great in mid December and then get absolutely bent over by the grinch and the grinches ugly step sister a week later you can in no way act like anything that happens later is redeeming in any way....the season is an all time ratter regardless....if we get a Nemo in here in 3 weeks I’m not rejoicing.....got it? It’s cancelled at this point.....LFG May 1

tell us how you really feel.

 

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42 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Scott, Ray, I think that area of strong vorticity, within the shortwave trough that arrives over the GRT Lakes between 72-84 hours, depending upon which model you use and which timing is ultimately correct in the end, has a chance to dig more and become a miller B.  The question becomes if the trough can tilt negatively at all before reaching the coastline of NJ than it may have a shot at producing snow on the coast.  Don't know!  However, the 00z guidance is coming around on the overall synoptic scale pattern like a giant H5 low and trough moving into the Great Lakes and central US.  This longwave trough is perpetuated by a long wave +PNA ridge that develops in the inter PNA/EPO regions.

I salute you.

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What makes me nervous about my call for Feb is that not only are we having the SSW, but we are due for meg NAO time.....on the other hand, what I weighted in favoring a PV recovery is the +QBO. Seems as though it has peaked early, though, like it did in 2011....so we will need to watch that. Didn't help latter portion of that season, but there wasn't a SSW, either.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LC is bullish on Feb....be interesting to see how it pans out....Tom and I in one camp, LC and DT in the other. Someone will have to "deal with it" lol

Gonna need the SSW to save Feb.

First order of business, being its only 1/9, is that Hopefully something(maybe 10 pin bowling?) saves January first? 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

First order of business, being its only 1/9, is that Hopefully something(maybe 10 pin bowling?) saves January first? 

1/10, unless you live in Vegas or LA.

Oh, Jan is still fair game...didn't mean to imply I was punting it. Just saying....seems like time table is moving back a bit, though. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1/10, unless you live in Vegas or LA.

Oh, Jan is still fair game...didn't mean to imply I was punting it. Just saying....seems like time table is moving back a bit, though. 

Lol...you’re right it is 1/10(still 3 full weeks left in Jan though obviously).  At this point, I can wait another 7-10 days for something decent.  I’m trying to be a patient Grasshopper(BTW where’s Steve been?) So Hope he hasn’t fell ill again  :-(   ? 

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37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol...you’re right it is 1/10(still 3 full weeks left in Jan though obviously).  At this point, I can wait another 7-10 days for something decent.  I’m trying to be a patient Grasshopper(BTW where’s Steve been?) So Hope he hasn’t fell ill again  :-(   ? 

He's probably laying low until it snows, so he can bump the 15 quotes that he has lined up on stand by lol

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It totally can over the last 10 days or so. 

Haha....Imma gonna toast me up some San Francisco sourdough and enjoy a taste of home while you wallow knee deep in a fantasy that is SNE normalcy......like we should be paring off equal.....my delicious sourdough toast against your amazing SNE snow......yet here we are....complete SNE fail.....I’m done

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7 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Haha....Imma gonna toast me up some San Francisco sourdough and enjoy a taste of home while you wallow knee deep in a fantasy that is SNE normalcy......like we should be paring off equal.....my delicious sourdough toast against your amazing SNE snow......yet here we are....complete SNE fail.....I’m done

Looks like the booze is downwelling into the esophagus and propagating into the bloodstream.

Sudden Alcholic Warming

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Just now, ice1972 said:

The toast was so good....the west Hartford Whole Fodds has a good mother and bakes a decent sourdough......so a good night.....10 fold enjoyment over what SNE brings in the snow department.....what a joke 

At least you had something to soak up the suds lol

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20 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Haha....Imma gonna toast me up some San Francisco sourdough and enjoy a taste of home while you wallow knee deep in a fantasy that is SNE normalcy......like we should be paring off equal.....my delicious sourdough toast against your amazing SNE snow......yet here we are....complete SNE fail.....I’m done

When the snow comes Ice...make sure you don’t post.  And if it doesn’t come, make sure you don’t post either.  Holy smokes...it’s the same drunken rants every F’n night.  Why don’t you SFU already.  If you have nothing to add but drunken criticism every night...go post on Facebook with the rest of the idiots.  
 

I think it’s Time for you to move to Crested Butte...then you can have 400 plus inches every winter.  

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

When the snow comes Ice...make sure you don’t post.  And if it doesn’t come, make sure you don’t post either.  Holy smokes...it’s the same drunken rants every F’n night.  Why don’t you SFU already.  If you have nothing to add but drunken criticism every night...go post on Facebook with the rest of the idiots.  
 

I think it’s Time for you to move to Crested Butte...then you can have 400 plus inches every winter.  

Crested Butte? No way.....imma gonna retire in Truckee CA thank you very much..... my pack fetish won’t be denied there no doubt about it....occasionally they get a flood like 1997 but not often...lol

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When the snow comes Ice...make sure you don’t post.  And if it doesn’t come, make sure you don’t post either.  Holy smokes...it’s the same drunken rants every F’n night.  Why don’t you SFU already.  If you have nothing to add but drunken criticism every night...go post on Facebook with the rest of the idiots.  
 

I think it’s Time for you to move to Crested Butte...then you can have 400 plus inches every winter.  

Also just so you know..... the snow isn’t coming....ok?

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Just now, ice1972 said:

Also just so you know..... the snow isn’t coming....ok?

Maybe so...but I’m certainly not writing off this winter on 1/10.  And I wouldn’t even be writing it off a month from now in the first week of Feb either.  Sometimes it takes a LIL longer for years /seasons to get rolling than others.  
 

Time will tell?   But you’re out on this season like you said, so we’ll see you next December. 

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