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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Definite shift on guidance for next week. The follow up wave is coming in quite potent so there may be a threat on 1/14 if thats real. GFS and GGEM both showed this shift. Ukie was a little more muted. 

Anyways, something maybe to watch. We’ll see what Euro does. 

Not doubting the more favorable pattern, but I'm just done with salivating over day 10 charts. I need a viable threat within 5 days....if the 14th looks good tomorrow night, then I'll take it seriously. 

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not doubting the more favorable pattern, but I'm just done with salivating over day 10 charts. I need a viable threat within 5 days....if the 14th looks good tomorrow night, then I'll take it seriously. 

Then I pray that is the case, because those type of discussions are extremely entertaining with you included in them, plus it is a real threat within four days!

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No kid, no wife for the wknd in mid winter...surely great weekend of storm hunting.....right? Thank god for football,  so I can watch my HOF QB play for FL, where it will probably snow. 

At this point, just gotta pray that the Euro verifies and we get a big cutter mid month after the next two whiffs. Just cut your losses and get out of this moribund morgue of a pattern. It's like fuc$ing being stuck in the movie groundhog day....every day its 39 degrees with P sunny skies, slight breeze and a low around 25 with decrepit, petrified snow patches decaying at various rates. The neighbor says hi every day at the same exact time, and I just want to beat him senseless with a fossilized snowbank. Every night, we hear about how the SSW is underway,  and while the blocking is verifying a bit south of modeling, it is here. All of the cold is in Mongolia and the snowbelts of Japan,  but just you wait for that eskimo queef to propagate up his pant leg and into the arctic stratosphere. We get model runs that manage to offer zero snowfall within 300 miles of Boston, while offering up several shortwaves. At least one passing close enough to lure the usual suspects to ogle over how close it is....rinse, repeat. There isn't even any baroclinicity or thermal gradients....no....nothing. Even the fuc8ing Hadley Cell is gone. It's mother nature just filled the atmosphere spanning the whole damn Hemisphere with embalming fluid in preparation for old man winter's funeral. Just give me so much as a rain event so I can confirm the weather has a pulse.

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Walt says .. so about that pattern change .. 

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good Saturday morning everyone-Jan 9. Quiet time.  Nothing for me to latch onto. No major long lasting below normal outbreak foreseen here prior to Saturday January 23, and until something suddenly emerges, no significant snows around here prior to the 18th. I was hoping the big 500MB trough digging and going negative for a time through the northeast USA Fri-Sat 15th-16th would give us a chance but so far, nothing doing.  00z/9 GEFS and EPS have us with less than 1" qpf next 16 days.  So something will have to change the pattern.  Unsure when the stratwarm snowier impacts will show up here, if at all. Maybe someone else can be more optimistic. 

 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No kid, no wife for the wknd in mid winter...surely great weekend of storm hunting.....right? Thank god for football,  so I can watch my HOF QB play for FL, where it will probably snow. 

At this point, just gotta pray that the Euro verifies and we get a big cutter mid month after the next two whiffs. Just cut your losses and get out of this moribund morgue of a pattern. It's like fuc$ing being stuck in the movie groundhog day....every day its 39 degrees with P sunny skies, slight breeze and a low around 25 with decrepit, petrified snow patches decaying at various rates. The neighbor says hi every day at the same exact time, and I just want to beat him senseless with a fossilized snowbank. Every night, we hear about how the SSW is underway,  and while the blocking is verifying a bit south of modeling, it is here. All of the cold is in Mongolia and the snowbelts of Japan,  but just you wait for that eskimo queef to propagate up his pant leg and into the arctic stratosphere. We get model runs that manage to offer zero snowfall within 300 miles of Boston, while offering up several shortwaves. At least one passing close enough to lure the usual suspects to ogle over how close it is....rinse, repeat. There isn't even any baroclinicity or thermal gradients....no....nothing. Even the fuc8ing Hadley Cell is gone. It's mother nature just filled the atmosphere spanning the whole damn Hemisphere with embalming fluid in preparation for old man winter's funeral. Just give me so much as a rain event so I can confirm the weather has a pulse.

Lol. Well done lad.

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2 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You guys are such crying babies..lol. If you think we are done and nothing will happen youbare dillusional. Even if the models shifted and look like they are not as good, aren't you all aware that they will.most likely change again. This is typical of these model runs. C'mon people. 

As things stand now, only an epic stretch of winter weather in Feb and Mar is going to salvage the winter. 

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Solid Ray melt. :lol:

I get it though. Boring as hell on model guidance right now. Euro deciding to throw a cutter in there is a good topper too. Clown range or not. 

Prob best to just watch football all weekend and then check back in Monday to see if things have changed for later next week.

 

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Funny comments...  thanks for the repost.  06z/9 cycle slightly better.  I've added 4 graphics.  GEFS lows for 00z/16 as a sample, which is an event not completely  north of us... but also prospects not that great here, despite what i think is quite a pair of shortwaves digging a big somewhat neg tilt through down the GLakes into the northeast. 

Then, added the 06z/ GEFs spaghetti 500MB for the 18th--- i think you all were referring to the cutter and I like this look too, for POTENTIAL, but I'd like more digging etc. The following GEFS qpf has minor bulge in the northeast as graphic added.  Not a big deal but us snow lovers, we want to renew, so we'll look, but not jump. 

Finally, you all probably saw this??  I've added a graph provided to us in the NYC forum (Bluewave post), about winters warming since 1970... not sure how the science was done but I think this pretty accurate... Some us  who are 65 or 70+ years of age remember the winters that a few inches would fall, then would be followed by enough blustery cold that ridges would need plowing 24 hours after the storm... those were the more extended fun sledding and pond skating days, for me. 

 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We regress. And the Pacific? Meh.

 

07D1DB43-F7FC-41BF-9675-950BE55C6982.png

That would be kind of funny actually if the pattern broke down very quickly after the 20th and we still hadn’t gotten anything. Epic melts. :lol:

At least the -NAO is still around on that with a -WPO. Maybe I’ll take my chances with PJ slamming the PAC with a -NAO over this crap. Go Feb ‘69. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would be kind of funny actually if the pattern broke down very quickly after the 20th and we still hadn’t gotten anything. Epic melts. :lol:

At least the -NAO is still around on that with a -WPO. Maybe I’ll take my chances with PJ slamming the PAC with a -NAO over this crap. Go Feb ‘69. 

Yeah we’ll see. That wouldn’t be a quiet look anyways. And Christ look at Madrid.

 

 

52726439-0BB1-4CF2-8541-354C03BD8F89.jpeg

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