40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Are you even looking at the models ? Mid January is when things are going to change and the models agree. Tmw morning you'll complain about how the NAO is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 37 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: I've seen lots of peeps talking about a lack of baroclinicity. Can this be amended by a cold shot alone, or do we need more, like a bombing cyclone to tighten the pressure gradient? I think adding cold would suffice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Definite shift on guidance for next week. The follow up wave is coming in quite potent so there may be a threat on 1/14 if thats real. GFS and GGEM both showed this shift. Ukie was a little more muted. Anyways, something maybe to watch. We’ll see what Euro does. Not doubting the more favorable pattern, but I'm just done with salivating over day 10 charts. I need a viable threat within 5 days....if the 14th looks good tomorrow night, then I'll take it seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not doubting the more favorable pattern, but I'm just done with salivating over day 10 charts. I need a viable threat within 5 days....if the 14th looks good tomorrow night, then I'll take it seriously. Then I pray that is the case, because those type of discussions are extremely entertaining with you included in them, plus it is a real threat within four days! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 No kid, no wife for the wknd in mid winter...surely great weekend of storm hunting.....right? Thank god for football, so I can watch my HOF QB play for FL, where it will probably snow. At this point, just gotta pray that the Euro verifies and we get a big cutter mid month after the next two whiffs. Just cut your losses and get out of this moribund morgue of a pattern. It's like fuc$ing being stuck in the movie groundhog day....every day its 39 degrees with P sunny skies, slight breeze and a low around 25 with decrepit, petrified snow patches decaying at various rates. The neighbor says hi every day at the same exact time, and I just want to beat him senseless with a fossilized snowbank. Every night, we hear about how the SSW is underway, and while the blocking is verifying a bit south of modeling, it is here. All of the cold is in Mongolia and the snowbelts of Japan, but just you wait for that eskimo queef to propagate up his pant leg and into the arctic stratosphere. We get model runs that manage to offer zero snowfall within 300 miles of Boston, while offering up several shortwaves. At least one passing close enough to lure the usual suspects to ogle over how close it is....rinse, repeat. There isn't even any baroclinicity or thermal gradients....no....nothing. Even the fuc8ing Hadley Cell is gone. It's mother nature just filled the atmosphere spanning the whole damn Hemisphere with embalming fluid in preparation for old man winter's funeral. Just give me so much as a rain event so I can confirm the weather has a pulse. 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 What a garbage winter.....next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, ice1972 said: What a garbage winter.....next I think we are in for nice couple of weeks, but I can't take any more of the dead atmosphere.....never seen anything like this. Hopefully it loads up for the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 Supression def. should end mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 You guys are such crying babies..lol. If you think we are done and nothing will happen youbare dillusional. Even if the models shifted and look like they are not as good, aren't you all aware that they will.most likely change again. This is typical of these model runs. C'mon people. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Walt says .. so about that pattern change .. 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Saturday morning everyone-Jan 9. Quiet time. Nothing for me to latch onto. No major long lasting below normal outbreak foreseen here prior to Saturday January 23, and until something suddenly emerges, no significant snows around here prior to the 18th. I was hoping the big 500MB trough digging and going negative for a time through the northeast USA Fri-Sat 15th-16th would give us a chance but so far, nothing doing. 00z/9 GEFS and EPS have us with less than 1" qpf next 16 days. So something will have to change the pattern. Unsure when the stratwarm snowier impacts will show up here, if at all. Maybe someone else can be more optimistic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No kid, no wife for the wknd in mid winter...surely great weekend of storm hunting.....right? Thank god for football, so I can watch my HOF QB play for FL, where it will probably snow. At this point, just gotta pray that the Euro verifies and we get a big cutter mid month after the next two whiffs. Just cut your losses and get out of this moribund morgue of a pattern. It's like fuc$ing being stuck in the movie groundhog day....every day its 39 degrees with P sunny skies, slight breeze and a low around 25 with decrepit, petrified snow patches decaying at various rates. The neighbor says hi every day at the same exact time, and I just want to beat him senseless with a fossilized snowbank. Every night, we hear about how the SSW is underway, and while the blocking is verifying a bit south of modeling, it is here. All of the cold is in Mongolia and the snowbelts of Japan, but just you wait for that eskimo queef to propagate up his pant leg and into the arctic stratosphere. We get model runs that manage to offer zero snowfall within 300 miles of Boston, while offering up several shortwaves. At least one passing close enough to lure the usual suspects to ogle over how close it is....rinse, repeat. There isn't even any baroclinicity or thermal gradients....no....nothing. Even the fuc8ing Hadley Cell is gone. It's mother nature just filled the atmosphere spanning the whole damn Hemisphere with embalming fluid in preparation for old man winter's funeral. Just give me so much as a rain event so I can confirm the weather has a pulse. Lol. Well done lad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Walt says .. so about that pattern change .. There shouldn't be all that much surprise about how the winter has gone so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol. Well done lad. I have Ray in the melt pool ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I have Ray in the melt pool ...... Yea. He’s swimming alongside Icey1929...doing the doggy paddle in cohesion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Cool n dry as far as eyes can see . Days and days and days and days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. He’s swimming alongside Icey1929...doing the doggy paddle in cohesion. Do you know how I can collect my winnings??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said: You guys are such crying babies..lol. If you think we are done and nothing will happen youbare dillusional. Even if the models shifted and look like they are not as good, aren't you all aware that they will.most likely change again. This is typical of these model runs. C'mon people. As things stand now, only an epic stretch of winter weather in Feb and Mar is going to salvage the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 We regress. And the Pacific? Meh. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Madrid had a hell of a snowstorm. Congrats Europe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 What a sad look at Pit1 in the second week of January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Madrid had a hell of a snowstorm. Congrats Europe. and a report of -32 in the northern part of spain..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Cool n dry as far as eyes can see . Days and days and days and days... Has not even been cold enough to get pond ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Solid Ray melt. I get it though. Boring as hell on model guidance right now. Euro deciding to throw a cutter in there is a good topper too. Clown range or not. Prob best to just watch football all weekend and then check back in Monday to see if things have changed for later next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Funny comments... thanks for the repost. 06z/9 cycle slightly better. I've added 4 graphics. GEFS lows for 00z/16 as a sample, which is an event not completely north of us... but also prospects not that great here, despite what i think is quite a pair of shortwaves digging a big somewhat neg tilt through down the GLakes into the northeast. Then, added the 06z/ GEFs spaghetti 500MB for the 18th--- i think you all were referring to the cutter and I like this look too, for POTENTIAL, but I'd like more digging etc. The following GEFS qpf has minor bulge in the northeast as graphic added. Not a big deal but us snow lovers, we want to renew, so we'll look, but not jump. Finally, you all probably saw this?? I've added a graph provided to us in the NYC forum (Bluewave post), about winters warming since 1970... not sure how the science was done but I think this pretty accurate... Some us who are 65 or 70+ years of age remember the winters that a few inches would fall, then would be followed by enough blustery cold that ridges would need plowing 24 hours after the storm... those were the more extended fun sledding and pond skating days, for me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Reminds me of Jan 2015 all over again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: and a report of -32 in the northern part of spain..... I'm not so certain areas of 11K mountains are the best ones to cite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 The mild and dry winter forecasts look to be the best . Right now anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We regress. And the Pacific? Meh. That would be kind of funny actually if the pattern broke down very quickly after the 20th and we still hadn’t gotten anything. Epic melts. At least the -NAO is still around on that with a -WPO. Maybe I’ll take my chances with PJ slamming the PAC with a -NAO over this crap. Go Feb ‘69. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 The point is the cold is centered far away from the US....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That would be kind of funny actually if the pattern broke down very quickly after the 20th and we still hadn’t gotten anything. Epic melts. At least the -NAO is still around on that with a -WPO. Maybe I’ll take my chances with PJ slamming the PAC with a -NAO over this crap. Go Feb ‘69. Yeah we’ll see. That wouldn’t be a quiet look anyways. And Christ look at Madrid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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