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Ocean Effect Snow Showers are now likely to impact Cape Cod and the Islands east of the Canal tonight throughout tomorrow towards Sunday morning.  Large low pressure center with attendant energy at H5 will move southeast by about 300 miles of the benchmark tomorrow morning.  Latest guidance suggests that the large piece of H5 energy with the system will move far out over the open ocean but an area of low pressure at H5 will try and develop off of Chatham and cause a trough like feature to bring the flow back easterly over SNE.  This entity will try and focus an ocean effect snow event over the Cape and Islands and at times impact coastal PYM county.  Right now, ocean effect clouds have begun to develop in the cold and brisk northerly surface low that will only become stronger throughout the day Saturday as winds gust to 30 knots at times out of the NNE or N.  Although ocean to 850mb differential or Delta Ts are not as impressive as one would like for strong instability, there is enough of a difference for bands to develop.  Again, nothing significant is expected, but that does not mean something unexpected won't develop.  Little accumulations are the high end of the potential chart of an inch.

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Also miller Bs are a safer bet because it seems for the models we know their schedule, 7 days out we see the storm produce, 4-7 days out we are missing the storm to the southeast, then within 3 days, we have the storm become a monster or it is out to sea, maybe see a NW trend last minute.  With the previous pattern that continues today, we have to rely on too much happening for a coastal storm to make the trek up the Eastern Seaboard, a miller B is more certain.

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Definite shift on guidance for next week. The follow up wave is coming in quite potent so there may be a threat on 1/14 if thats real. GFS and GGEM both showed this shift. Ukie was a little more muted. 

Anyways, something maybe to watch. We’ll see what Euro does. 

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