January 2021

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What's worse: rock solid frozen bare ground at 0F while BWI to PHL get a couple big snowstorms,  or bare ground at 40F while it doesn't snow anywhere?

The former...hands down, give me option 2.

Thank you, may I have another.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs lost the storm next week

18Z GFS Para misses too - all this after the 12Z EURO came on board with the storm - typical model mayhem at this range....

[kdxken]

Feels odd we haven't had a cold snap. Always seems to be one near Christmas or a week or two after. I'm sure Will has the stats.

[78Blizzard]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS Para misses too - all this after the 12Z EURO came on board with the storm - typical model mayhem at this range....

The Para has lost it on several runs over the past few days.  I wouldn't put much emphasis on the 18z for that reason.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Feels odd we haven't had a cold snap. Always seems to be one near Christmas or a week or two after. I'm sure Will has the stats.

Quite often, It has been this week between christmas and new years we have had one.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Quite often, It has been this week between christmas and new years we have had one.

 

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Feels odd we haven't had a cold snap. Always seems to be one near Christmas or a week or two after. I'm sure Will has the stats.

It’s often behind the grinch storm we typically see, lol. But there wasn’t much cold behind this one. 

Doesn't look like any true arctic air for the foreseeable future. May have to wait until mid-month or later. 

[leo2000]

Looking better in the long range. 

 

 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

It’s often behind the grinch storm we typically see, lol. But there wasn’t much cold behind this one. 

Doesn't look like any true arctic air for the foreseeable future. May have to wait until mid-month or later. 

Yeah, I don't see any anytime soon.

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

Quite often, It has been this week between christmas and new years we have had one.

That is true... even if we get a Grinch storm, it seems like after heading into early January we get some blast of arctic air mixed in there.  The lack of great snowmaking weather has been very noticeable at the ski areas.  Even if it doesn't snow, there's usually some arctic shots between them.  I don't think the general public likes arctic air between warm ups, but it usually leads to good snowmaking and terrain expansion.

This season it's like hey, after each cutter we'll give you 36-48 hours of decent but not fantastic snowmaking temperatures before having to shut it off again.  Snowmaking generally needs wet-bulbs of 25-26F to get appreciable accumulation, and this is the summit station with the near 850mb temperatures.  Often warmer below that.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

That is true... even if we get a Grinch storm, it seems like after heading into early January we get some blast of arctic air mixed in there.  The lack of great snowmaking weather has been very noticeable at the ski areas.  Even if it doesn't snow, there's usually some arctic shots between them.  I don't think the general public likes arctic air between warm ups, but it usually leads to good snowmaking and terrain expansion.

This season it's like hey, after each cutter we'll give you 36-48 hours of decent but not fantastic snowmaking temperatures before having to shut it off again.  Snowmaking generally needs wet-bulbs of 25-26F to get appreciable accumulation, and this is the summit station with the near 850mb temperatures.  Often warmer below that.

Really noticeable this season too, No frost in the ground to speak of, Generally like i have mentioned, We usually get a cold snap either mid Dec that runs until second week or so in Jan or the week between Christmas and New years that runs into Jan as well before a thaw.

[CoastalWx]

The EPS still seems biased high over the Davis Straits due to warm temps and not necessarily from massive anticyclonic ridging. Something to watch.  

[dryslot]

We have had some transient cold this month, But nothing sustained where you could label it a cold period.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Anyone who rides needs frigid.  Water crossing and ground need to freeze solid.

Agreed, but I don’t ride in SNE.  So I guess I was speaking of my home here in SNE.  
 

But You guys and on North of you to Dry Slot, to N. Aroostook can have the frigid temps.   

[dryslot]

This is pathetic for this date up here

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

This is pathetic for this date up here

Yeah maybe seasonal stats are good in spots, but that is all time bad right there. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah maybe seasonal stats are good in spots, but that is all time bad right there. 

The snow retention in the areas that retain snow this early is whats really horrific even though you have some that are above avg for snowfall.

[dryslot]

Last season wasn't great, But you can see where the pack retention generally is.

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah maybe seasonal stats are good in spots, but that is all time bad right there. 

The only thing that makes it ok is that the yard has had a surprising number of days of snow cover (not depth) for such an overall sh*t start to winter.  Several unexpected snowy days, but no big storms since Nov 2-3 when 10" fell.  That's almost two months ago at this point.

But then again there is this photo from the holiday period in 2015 when we opened the summer attractions (zip line tours actually launching from 3,600ft).  That winter of 15-16 is still tracking to be much worse, ha.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The only thing that makes it ok is that the yard has had a surprising number of days of snow cover (not depth) for such an overall sh*t start to winter.  Several unexpected snowy days, but no big storms since Nov 2-3 when 10" fell.  That's almost two months ago at this point.

But then again there is the holiday period in 2015.  That winter of 15-16 is still tracking to be much worse, ha.

With everything that has gone on this year, This was probably the last thing ski areas needed heading into one of there busiest times of the season.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

With everything that has gone on this year, This was probably the last thing ski areas needed heading into one of there busiest times of the season.

Yeah it’s not idea but in an odd way it keep visitations down which is a good thing given state guidelines and companies guidelines.  It’s not as bad as that photo from 2015 but it’s crazy to think about how (relatively) crowded it would feel in a COVID season with everyone trying to run safely.

Starting to drift off-topic but let's hope we see some change or shake up to get things more winter/active.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

With everything that has gone on this year, This was probably the last thing ski areas needed heading into one of there busiest times of the season.

That is brutal there. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That is brutal there. 

That is 2015, just for the record.  Not sure if it matters but it's at least white and wintry looking on the view.

[WinterWolf]

30 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Last season wasn't great, But you can see where the pack retention generally is.

To be honest...couldn’t go riding last December in N. Aroostook either. They got washed out last year too.  And back in 18, if they didn’t get a 10-12 incher the night of the 26th..it wouldn’t have happened either.  And all these last 3 yrs, had a very good prior two-three weeks of snow and snow cover leading up to the rainers at Xmas in ‘18, ‘19 and  ‘20.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

To be honest...couldn’t go riding last December in N. Aroostook either. They got washed out last year too.  And back in 18, if they didn’t get a 10-12 incher the night of the 26th..it wouldn’t have happened either.  And all these last 3 yrs, had a very good prior two-three weeks of snow and snow over leading up to the rainers at Xmas in ‘18, ‘19 and  ‘20.

Its more NW Maine early on, The county is more iffy, They get upslope so i ride every year late Dec early Jan up in the mountain areas.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That is 2015, just for the record.  Not sure if it matters but it's at least white and wintry looking on the view.

Oh I remember it well. In fact I remember your post and was like, “holy phucking shit.” Couldn’t believe how bad it was.  And then you sort of went off the reservation and talked to Mt Mansfield about how it’s trying to do its job with orographics.... and it’s just not working.  

[bwt3650]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The only thing that makes it ok is that the yard has had a surprising number of days of snow cover (not depth) for such an overall sh*t start to winter.  Several unexpected snowy days, but no big storms since Nov 2-3 when 10" fell.  That's almost two months ago at this point.

But then again there is this photo from the holiday period in 2015 when we opened the summer attractions (zip line tours actually launching from 3,600ft).  That winter of 15-16 is still tracking to be much worse, ha.

That is unbelievable..what trail is that?  Did you guys completely shut down the trails that year?  They are blowing the crap out of the mountain here just trying to keep things decent.  There have been a couple times it looked like they were primed for a decent expansion, but it never broke right.  The northern greens need it.

[bwt3650]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I remember it well. In fact I remember your post and was like, “holy phucking shit.” Couldn’t believe how bad it was.  And then you sort of went off the reservation and talked to Mt Mansfield about how it’s trying to do its job with orographics.... and it’s just not working.  

I’ve heard about the melts in here.  Perhaps it’s needed at this point.

[CT Rain]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is brutal there. 

At least we have pretty red colors in the NAO region next week.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its more NW Maine early on, The county is more iffy, They get upslope so i ride every year late Dec early Jan up in the mountain areas.

It’s been the grinch the last 3 years...they were loaded up 18 and 19 with 3 ft plus pack, and grooming was in full swing.  Even this year they had 2ft plus and grooming operational, until Xmas Eve and day wiped it out. So it’s been just incredibly bad timing for the last 3 years.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

At least we have pretty red colors in the NAO region next week.

Bootleg NAO until otherwise.