40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: nah...too many height lines. The flow is too fast there. It may engender something there eastern OV to MA but it'll likely be haulin' ass and S of NS in 9 hours flat with that screaming balanced flow that represents the entire scope there. ... The red flag for that is that the environment immediately downstream of that trough only shows vague ridging rolling out ahead of it... Yea, lot of good the blocked flow did us a few days ago, now porked through the other orafice with fast flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ouch: It’s yesterday’s euro weeklies discussed by our local mets here ITT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 I agree, though....anything but this. Give me some type of gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Kevin throwing in the towel is a good sign something big is coming, thanks Kevin 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Kevin throwing in the towel is a good sign something big is coming, thanks Kevin I think at this point most of us would take a screamer with lots of rain and damage like Xmas. The last thing anyone expected was for us to go back in drought - Stein status in January. It’s crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think at this point most of us would take a screamer with lots of rain and damage like Xmas. The last thing anyone expected was for us to go back in drought - Stein status in January. It’s crazy At least a strong cutter would shake thing up and create a gradient...this 41 in Boston and 55 in Miama isn't cutting it. I honestly think that this may be the most boring month of winter weather that I have ever witnessed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: We'll probably have to field at least once historic hyper bomb in the models - It seems hard to run a depressed AO against a tapestry of HC shit ...and the la-Nina gradient patterns, without extraordinary potential always in reach. You don't like to put the gas can next to the window pain, at the back of the garage, when there books of half used matches collecting dust near by... It'll be a fast mover... fetus circulation near Atlanta Georgia gets confused with a Miller B clipper from cryo hell sporing a 57 v-max fisting over WV ... 947 mb low passing 20 M E of ACK - the first time ever an extra-tropical ISE ever did at that particular lat/lon.... Probably the last thing that happens before mid to late February green -up lol... The two phase - Alas, that's on D9 in the Euro... so ... it has sooo much physical numerical instability in the guidance that it actually lasts into the next day of runs ...tho slightly less in form... 955 .. Then, the GFS-Parapellegic throws the bone... but mysterially, it all loses out to a just a -10 at 850 mb cold whack when it's D6 and Ray's reminding us all how Baseball pitchers and catchers report, while Scott thinks we don't suspect him smoldering in his protracted form of a meltdown while he floats tactically hard to prove troll efforts ... Then, it all comes screaming back at 72 hours out...but it's a more "sensible" 963 mb bomb ...but notice it's still historic... and it's even slower a little, because as we near, the compensating physics of deep z-coordinate lows ( for some reason ) slowing against the flow, is seen more readily by nearer termed modeling solutions. ... End result... dust fins around tree trunks at DC with 40" from TTN to PWM .... Everything I just characterized I plagiarized from Jame's scary book without even reading it - I'm pretty sure.... No, but I do in all seriousness get the feeling that we check into some volatility realization out there. ...but you didn't mention the romance in the book....I am a bit disappointed ☹️.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ...but you didn't mention the romance in the book....I am a bit disappointed ☹️.... He left out the chapter about his chance encounter with Christine that warm, brilliantly vibrant spring day.....cross pollination all throughout the fields and trees, as the increasing solar irradiance warmes their supple tushies while they roll through the dewey grass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At least a strong cutter would shake thing up and create a gradient...this 41 in Boston and 55 in Miama isn't cutting it. I honestly think that this may be the most boring month of winter weather that I have ever witnessed. No sign of anything changing for weeks either. Blows donkeys 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 this progressing like a normal NE winter jmo. Snoozefest January is not shocking to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: this progressing like a normal NE winter jmo. Snoozefest January is not shocking to me Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No sign of anything changing for weeks either. Blows donkeys I wouldn't say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He left out the chapter about his chance encounter with Christine that warm, brilliantly vibrant spring day.....cross pollination all throughout the fields and trees as the increasing radiance warmed their supple tushies. No no no...not that romance....the romance in the book by James,.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2021 Author Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: No no no...not that romance....the romance in the book by James,.... I must have missed the chapter about James' romantic encounters....do sand dunes count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think at this point most of us would take a screamer with lots of rain and damage like Xmas. The last thing anyone expected was for us to go back in drought - Stein status in January. It’s crazy Drought was the first thing I thought of when my kid was playing in the mud today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I must have missed the chapter about James' romantic encounters....do sand dunes count? James needs to send you a free autographed copy of the book....along with an The Awakening Dawn T shirt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Drought was the first thing I thought of when my kid was playing in the mud today You have mud? It’s been frozen ground here all week . Even in sunny spots. Highest temp was 38. Glad we don’t live there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 This is almost noose worthy, Talk about depression. November temperatures were 4 to 6 degrees above normal and this warmth continued into early December. The rest of December featured large swings in temperatures with significant early season snowfall followed by a warm rain system towards the end of the month. This rain system depleted the early season snowpack and caused widespread river flooding across western Maine and New Hampshire with rivers still running above normal. December ended with temperatures running 2 to 6 degrees above normal with above normal precipitation. After a modest snow and mixed precipitation event to start January there has been a notable pattern shift with the storm track suppressed well to our south. This shift in the storm track can be attributed to a strong upper level ridge and blocking to our north thanks to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This dry pattern is expected to continue through mid-January with storminess suppressed to our south. Generally, in negative NAO patterns temperatures are favored to run below normal, but medium range guidance indicates that temperatures will run near to above normal. There are signs that by mid-January the blocking associated with the negative NAO will shift further northward, which would allow the storm track to shift closer to northern New England and more active weather going into the second half of the month. The Climate Prediction Center`s 6 to 10 day outlook calls for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. The 8 to 14 day outlook calls for temperatures to be above normal with near normal precipitation. ...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT... ...NEW HAMPSHIRE... Snow depths across New Hampshire are mostly 10 inches or less with bare ground near the seacoast. Only across the high elevations in northern New Hampshire do snow depths exceed 1 foot. Snow depths are below to much below normal across all areas of New Hampshire. An inch or less of water equivalent is contained in the snow pack across areas below 1000 feet. Above 1000 feet...snow water equivalents increase marginally between 1 and 3 inches. Snow water equivalents are below to much below normal across all areas of New Hampshire. ...WESTERN MAINE... Snow depths across western Maine are below 5 inches near the coast with bare ground in extreme southern Maine. Across the interior snow depths are mostly under 10 inches and the only locations with depths that exceed a foot are locally confined to elevations above 1000 feet. Snow depths are below normal across all of western Maine. Snow water equivalent is well below normal for the time of year and ranges from little if any in southern York county to 1 to 2 inches near the Canadian border. ...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS... Although New Hampshire and western Maine were experiencing drought conditions through the Fall of 2020...above normal precipitation in November and December have led to significant improvement in drought conditions. Soil moisture anomaly maps from January 6 indicate near normal soil moisture across Maine and slightly below normal soil moisture across extreme western Maine through much of New hampshire. The latest Palmer Drought Severity Index from 2 January 2021 shows near normal conditions across New Hampshire and western Maine. The Palmer Index looks at conditions over the range of weeks to months. Reservoirs in the Androscoggin River basin are 75.3 percent full which is 15.8 percent above normal. Reservoirs in the Kennebec River basin are 77.1 percent full which is 20.2 percent above normal. Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire is running just slightly above normal for early January. Groundwater levels courtesy of the USGS are mostly in the normal range with the exception of below normal being in Northern New Hampshire. ...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS... River flows across New Hampshire are near to above normal and above to well above normal across Maine. In fact...flows at the head waters of the Kennebec River basin are at record high flow levels. The very warm start to winter combined with the rain at the end of December has led to much of the ice in place to be flushed out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You have mud? It’s been frozen ground here all week . Even in sunny spots. Highest temp was 38. Glad we don’t live there. Just the top half inch or so in some spots.. But was enough for him to kick around in. Still got snow in other spots.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Getting massive blocking that drives the storms well south but then having the temps still be above normal is a serious gut punch. Just pathetic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Anyone ready for very cold air coming next week ? Suppression =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2015 is walking thru the door. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Anyone ready for very cold air coming next week ? Suppression =( Next week will hit 50 in NYC area at least twice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Hi fives all around for this fantastic pattern. Dr dew must be stokedSent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think at this point most of us would take a screamer with lots of rain and damage like Xmas. The last thing anyone expected was for us to go back in drought - Stein status in January. It’s crazy No. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: This is almost noose worthy, Talk about depression. November temperatures were 4 to 6 degrees above normal and thiswarmth continued into early December. The rest of December featuredlarge swings in temperatures with significant early season snowfallfollowed by a warm rain system towards the end of the month. Thisrain system depleted the early season snowpack and causedwidespread river flooding across western Maine and New Hampshirewith rivers still running above normal. December ended withtemperatures running 2 to 6 degrees above normal with above normalprecipitation.After a modest snow and mixed precipitation event to startJanuary there has been a notable pattern shift with the stormtrack suppressed well to our south. This shift in the storm trackcan be attributed to a strong upper level ridge and blocking toour north thanks to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).This dry pattern is expected to continue through mid-January withstorminess suppressed to our south. Generally, in negative NAOpatterns temperatures are favored to run below normal, but mediumrange guidance indicates that temperatures will run near to abovenormal. There are signs that by mid-January the blockingassociated with the negative NAO will shift further northward,which would allow the storm track to shift closer to northern NewEngland and more active weather going into the second half of themonth.The Climate Prediction Center`s 6 to 10 day outlook calls forabove normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. The 8 to14 day outlook calls for temperatures to be above normal withnear normal precipitation....OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT......NEW HAMPSHIRE...Snow depths across New Hampshire are mostly 10 inches or less withbare ground near the seacoast. Only across the high elevations innorthern New Hampshire do snow depths exceed 1 foot. Snow depthsare below to much below normal across all areas of New Hampshire.An inch or less of water equivalent is contained in the snow packacross areas below 1000 feet. Above 1000 feet...snow waterequivalents increase marginally between 1 and 3 inches. Snow waterequivalents are below to much below normal across all areas ofNew Hampshire....WESTERN MAINE...Snow depths across western Maine are below 5 inches near thecoast with bare ground in extreme southern Maine. Across theinterior snow depths are mostly under 10 inches and the onlylocations with depths that exceed a foot are locally confined toelevations above 1000 feet. Snow depths are below normal acrossall of western Maine.Snow water equivalent is well below normal for the time of yearand ranges from little if any in southern York county to 1 to 2inches near the Canadian border....SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...Although New Hampshire and western Maine were experiencingdrought conditions through the Fall of 2020...above normalprecipitation in November and December have led to significantimprovement in drought conditions. Soil moisture anomaly maps fromJanuary 6 indicate near normal soil moisture across Maine andslightly below normal soil moisture across extreme western Mainethrough much of New hampshire. The latest Palmer Drought SeverityIndex from 2 January 2021 shows near normal conditions across NewHampshire and western Maine. The Palmer Index looks at conditionsover the range of weeks to months.Reservoirs in the Androscoggin River basin are 75.3 percent fullwhich is 15.8 percent above normal. Reservoirs in the KennebecRiver basin are 77.1 percent full which is 20.2 percent abovenormal.Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire is running just slightly abovenormal for early January.Groundwater levels courtesy of the USGS are mostly in the normalrange with the exception of below normal being in Northern NewHampshire....RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...River flows across New Hampshire are near to above normal andabove to well above normal across Maine. In fact...flows at thehead waters of the Kennebec River basin are at record high flowlevels.The very warm start to winter combined with the rain at the end ofDecember has led to much of the ice in place to be flushed out. Time for one of these Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Hi fives all around for this fantastic pattern. Dr dew must be stoked Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk I’m digging it. Mid 40s today under full sunshine. Perfect winter day IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I’m digging it. Mid 40s today under full sunshine. Perfect winter day IMO. Mid 40’s? Lol . What a torch area if so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mid 40’s? Lol . What a torch area if so Yep. 44.6F. What was you high today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No. Enjoy another 10 like the last 10? And another 10 after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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